THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER
RUSSIA AND
THE EURO-ATLANTIC POWERS: CAN IT GET WORSE?
Russia’s
relations with the West, particularly with the United States plummeted to new
lows in 2021. This level of mutual misunderstanding was not seen even during
the original Cold War. After years of deteriorating relations, sanctions,
tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions, and an escalating rhetoric many in Russia
are asking if some form of direct conversation may create even more tensions
and conflict.
Events have
cascaded over the past month. Russia’s treatment of imprisoned dissident Alexei
Navalny, who has been sent to a prison hospital amid reports of failing health,
underlines the sharp differences of perception between Russia and the West over
human rights matters. The Russian military buildup near Ukraine has illustrated
that the conflict in the Donbass region might explode at any time, possibly
even dragging Russia and NATO into direct confrontation. As Russia brought 20%
of its armed forces on the border with Ukraine in an unprecedented show of
force by the second most powerful army in the world, it reaffirmed its support
for the rebel regions and reminded Ukraine and NATO what they are up against.
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| ©Biden/Facebook |
The list of disagreements is very long. Taking into consideration the never-ending American tendency to see the world in the binary good guys vs bad guys framework, which is evident from the American approach to conflicts in Ukraine, Syria, Belarus, and Russia's "under siege" mentality and its decreasing clout in the world, there is little chance for optimism.
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| ©President of Russia Website |
There is a
growing realization in Moscow, and it is not easy to refute, that the growing
madness of internal American politics preoccupied with identity politics is
spilling out into the US foreign policy. China with its genocidal concentration
camps and its open aggression against Taiwan and neighbouring countries draws
by far less ire of the US administration (or legacy media) than the fate of
Navalny who, though unjustly imprisoned, keeps texting from jail on a regular
basis. With all Russian human rights problems, the real communist dictatorship
with all real brutality and murder (on rather mass scale) is China. Ingrained
perceptions, business interests and even the desire to avoid the hint of
perceived racism make it more politically expedient and convenient to target Russia.
There is a growing sense in Moscow that the downward spiral of East-West ties has
reached a point of no return, and that Russia should consider abandoning hopes
of reconciliation with the West and seek permanent alternatives: perhaps in an
intensified compact with China, and targeted relationships with countries of
Europe and other regions that are willing to do business with Moscow.
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ARMENIA, THE GENOCIDE
U.S.
President Joe Biden recognized the massacre of Armenians by the Ottoman Empire
during World War I as genocide, following calls for the move by more than 100 US
lawmakers.
The
recognition, promised by Biden during the presidential campaign for the
November election he won, is largely symbolic but is likely to anger Turkey and
step up already high tensions between the two NATO allies. Avoiding angering
Turkey was the main factor in previous US reluctance to recognize the genocide.
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| ©Armenian Genocide Museum |
Biden used
the word "genocide" as part of a statement on April 24th when annual
Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day commemorations are held around the world.
Armenian
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has condemned what he called crimes against
"civilization" and demanded an apology from Turkey as Armenia, amid
coronavirus restrictions, marked the 105th anniversary of the World War I-era
massacre of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire.
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TURKEY, WHO ARE YOU?
Turkey is
emerging as an important actor in world politics, exerting growing influence
both in its immediate region and beyond.
Undoubtedly, the man who deserves credit for this is its current president,
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Turkey is a
key member of NATO (on paper it has the second largest military within the
alliance) and a member of several European organizations. It is growing more
confident and is asserting more independent foreign policy positions. Turkey is
involved in many conflicts near and far from its borders: Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Libya, and to a lesser non-military extent with Greece and Israel. Though a
member of NATO it recently purchased an advanced S-400 Mobile Missile System
from Russia, which triggered ire of the US. The US threatened to withhold the
sale of F-35's to Turkey. Just recently Turkey offered a compromise: not to
fully activate the S-400 system. In any case, Turkey is in the news frequently
as it tries to reassert itself as major regional and even a world power.
In this
light it would be interesting to see to what extent Turkey will unleash its
anger at Joe Biden's recognition of Armenian genocide and how it will influence
US-Turkey relations. In a way it will be a test and the world will see if
Turkey really has matured into a major power or it will throw the usual
tantrums of an insecure state.
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| ©Erdogan/Facebook |
Some
suggest Turkey is pursuing a "neo-Ottomanist" agenda. This maybe a
moot point but one should remember that Turkey as a national entity is still
relatively young. Without harbouring credible territorial ambitions, it may
entertain the desire to have a zone of influence that extends to nearby historic
Ottoman territories. It also has to contend with a large Kurdish minority that
never received the nation-state it was promised after World War I. The fact
that it has moved away from Kemal Ataturk's vision of strictly secular Turkey
towards a more Islamic one is clear. Erdogan's Turkey supports Hamas in Gaza,
has very close ties with radical Islamists in Syria and even secretly
cooperates with Iranian intelligence.
At times,
this competes and creates tensions with the West. However lately it has
managed to upset Russia with its open support and participation (on the level
of advisors and weaponry) in the Azeri war against Armenia but also sales of
weapons to Ukraine. Russia and Turkey have fought many wars against each other
(12 to be exact since 1568) so Russia has no illusions about Turkey's
objectives in the Caucasus and Crimea. Turkey is also keenly aware of the fact
that Russia is still a military heavy weight and a nuclear super-power, so it
plays very safe on this front. Turkey also has significant investments in
Russia as well as major trade and tourism concerns.
Occasionally
Turkey threatens to withdraw from NATO to further its regional ambitions but as
it stands today it seems it has reached limits of its capabilities. The Turkish
economy is in decline and the population in large cities very much like to see
Erdogan go.
However,
with the less assertive Europe and America which is withdrawing from Syria and
Afghanistan, Turkey will continue to be a local powerhouse and an irritant to
both the West and Russia.
--o--
CZECH SPY THRILLER
On October
16th, 2014, a large ammunition depot, located on private land in the middle of
nowhere in the Western part of the Czech Republic was blown up. Two guards lost
their lives. The initial investigation found out that the weapons stored inside
the warehouse belonged to a notorious Bulgarian arms dealer nicknamed Yemelian.
Several years later in the interview with a reporter from the New York Times
Yemelian admitted that the weapons stored there were purchased for the Ukrainian
volunteer battalions fighting pro-Russian separatists in Donbass.
The
authorities in Prague had its suspicions but there was little evidence. However,
it is also possible that for political reasons the revelation was delayed for a
more opportune time. On April 17th of this year, however, Czech
officials made a stunning allegation, drawing a direct line between the
explosions and the Russian military intelligence agency known as the GRU,
specifically a division known as Unit 29155. That Unit is widely suspected in
Salisbury's poisoning of Sergei and Julia Skripal with the nerve agent called
Novichok. Both survived but have not been seen since then.
Czech counterintelligence
service recently established, by discovering photocopies of passports belonging
to two Tajik citizens, that they had visited the arms depot shortly before it
was blown up and looked exactly like the two suspects in the Skripal poisoning
affair. According to the British and Czech intelligence services they belong to
Unit 29155.
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| ©RFE/RL |
"There
is unequivocal evidence about the involvement of officers of the Russian
intelligence service GRU in the explosion of the ammunition depot,” Prime
Minister Andrej Babis told an unusual night news conference on April 17th. He
also said 18 Russians working at the Russian Embassy were being expelled. “The
Czech Republic is a sovereign state and must react accordingly to those
unprecedented revelations,” he said.
Consequently,
out of 23 Russian diplomats in Prague 18 were expelled and 95 Czech employees
of the Russian embassy lost their jobs. Moscow retaliated asymmetrically by
expelling 20 Czech diplomats.
The story
took an unusual twist when suddenly Czech president Milosh Zeman came up with a
statement alluding to the fact that maybe there could be other explanations for
the 7-year-old explosion. He did not elaborate further but promised that all
materials of the investigation will be eventually made public.
In the
circumstances, even though the Czech Republic has been severely affected by
COVID-19, it has now refused to consider the application for the registration
of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine.
--o--
UKRAINE: SEARCHING FOR THE RIGHT SCENARIO
For many
Western analysts and government officials, the recent escalation of tensions between
Ukraine and Russia and especially the massive deployment of Russian troops all
along the Ukraine-Russia border could only be explained by Russia’s desire to threaten
and possible even invade Ukraine. The fact that the escalation of tension was
inconsistent with both Ukrainian and Russian year-long efforts to maintain a
working cease-fire along the line separating the rebel regions of Eastern
Ukraine from the rest of the country was not addressed. Beyond general Russian aggressive
intentions for the region, observers could offer no specific explanation for
the timing and the scope of the Russian troop deployment. The claim from some Russian quarters that the
crisis was triggered by a Zelenskyy decree that makes retaking the
Russian-annexed territory of Crimea official Ukrainian state policy does not stand
up to close examination.
President
Zelenskyy’s own professed commitment to the pursuit of a permanent cease-fire in
Eastern Ukraine would make it highly unlikely for him to do anything to disrupt
the current military standoff. On the other hand, as commander-in-chief, he has
to direct Ukrainian Armed Forces and cannot be seen as retreating. As Dmitri
Trenin from the Moscow Carnegie Centre suggested, it looks as though some time
in February he authorised the re-deployment of Ukrainian troops and heavy
equipment in greater proximity to the conflict zone. The lesser distance
between conflicting entities was bound to create some new skirmishes even if
Ukrainian troops were on order not to shoot first. It would also seem that
there were some on the Ukrainian side that found inspiration in the quick
victory of Azerbaijan in its recent conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh.
If the opposing side consisted only of local militias and Russian “irregulars”,
some may have started thinking that a quick military advance might be possible.
This is what Dmitry Kozak, Russian representative in the peace negotiations, referred
to when he said that the Ukrainian authorities were like “children playing with
matches”.
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| ©President of Ukraine Website |
The
movement of Ukrainian troops would obviously have become known to Russia. The
reaction could have been proportional, but it was not. Yet, as with Ukraine,
the reaction was not to start shooting but to re-deploy troops. The
re-deployment was massive. Its detection was un-avoidable. The point was to
send a message to Ukraine and her supporters that Russia would massively
intervene if the rebel regions came under attack. That was perfectly understood
in Kyiv. Dmitri Trenin rightly observed the massive troop deployment was
probably the best way of avoiding a real war down the road. Making clear the
plausible Russian response seems to have been achieved. The Russian troops have
returned to their home bases.
The
disproportional Russian response carried a reputational risk by reinforcing in
Western public opinion the image of Russia as a potential aggressor. There was
obviously little concern among the Russian leadership about this: that battle
is already lost in any event.
There may
have been no military gain in this episode for President Zelenskyy’s. There was
however a clear political advantage. At home, it served to buttress his
nationalist credentials. On the international front, Zelenskky got all the
expected reactions from Western governments in support of Ukraine thus amassing
some intangible ammunition and moral support for his next encounter with
President Putin some time in the next few weeks.
Zelenskyy
has also appealed to the U.S. and Europe to expedite Ukraine’s membership in
NATO, which Russia has long described as a “red line” that would lead to war.
Top Kremlin official Dmitry Kozak even warned that if conflict erupts, it could
be “the beginning of the end of Ukrainian state.
Ultimately
though, there was a lot of noise but limited new damage done. As Zelenskyy,
dressed in full military gear, was seen visiting Ukrainian troops in the
conflict area one could not avoid the observation that the President was
reverting to his previous profession and playing a part in a scenario from
which he could improve his own position.
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| ©President of Ukraine Website |
In the days
following the withdrawal of Russian troops Zelenskky repeated his call or
changes to the Minsk process to be made more flexible. He also added the
suggestion that to achieve progress he might be useful to add powerful players
such as the US, the UK and Canada. He did not explain however why Russia would
ever agree to amend the Minsk process or to include the strongest supporters of
Ukraine in the negotiation process other than to provide cover for himself
should he wish to make any compromise. As for Canada specifically, it is hard to see
what it could contribute at this late stage other than to continue its support for
the modernisation of the Ukrainian military and improve it assistance to overall
reform processes.
Unlike some
of his foreign supporters Zelenskky no longer simply calls for the
implementation of the Minsk Accords but rather for their updating. He knows that
the Accords in their current state are unacceptable to Ukrainian public opinion.
He has expressed the desire to bring back the population of the rebel regions
into the Ukrainian polity, but he refuses to engage directly with the
representatives of these regions because they continue to be labeled as
terrorists. The only way out is through a negotiation with Russia, and with
Vladimir Putin. He can have his European and North American friends put all the
political pressure they can on Russia, he still must come up with something
that will move Putin to an acceptable compromise. At this time, it might only
be possible to come up with additional arrangements that would be seen as
complementing the Minsk Accords and that might firm up ceasefire arrangements as
well as facilitate a progressive return to normalcy in the conflict area.
It is worth
noting that Dmitri Gordon, one of the leading Ukrainian political observers has
expressed strong reservations about the usefulness of a Zelenskky-Putin meeting
in the current environment. For Zelenskyy, negotiating with Putin and
convincing his own people would seem equally daunting challenges. He will need
the help of his foreign supporters on both accounts.
--o--
PERSON OF THE MONTH: JOHN KERRY
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| © Kerry/Facebook |
Former
Senator and presidential candidate John Kerry is the US Special Presidential
Envoy for Climate. It is a position in the Executive Office of the President of
the United States with authority over energy policy and climate policy. He
played a key role in bringing together 40 heads of state for two days of
virtual climate talks earlier this month. The summit focused on what nations
need to do to curb planet-warming emissions. Kerry also called the summit a
historic economic opportunity.
John Kerry
was born in 1943. In 1966 graduated from Yale and joined the U.S. Army. He
fought in Vietnam between 1968 and 1969
for 4 months in total. He participated in intense combat on several occasions
as a commanding officer of a river bound swift boat. He was twice wounded and
earned two Purple Hearts, Bronze and Silver Stars.
Kerry’s
international climate efforts have been helped by his hard-earned stature in
diplomatic circles. Aside from serving as Obama’s secretary of state, he had a
long career as a U.S. senator and was the Democrats’ 2004 presidential nominee.
He is a seasoned diplomat with years of political experience rivaled only by
his direct boss, President Biden. John and Joe know each other well. Both come
from Obama's team and obviously he has Biden's ear but must be subtle enough
not to step on current Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s toes.
Considering
how popular the whole climate change issue is in the Western world, especially
among people under 35, Kerry's position in the government, coupled with his
experience, carries a lot of weight and he is directly in charge of a plan to
tackle climate change.
When John
Kerry is in Washington, he has his office in the Eisenhower Executive Office
Building next to the White House and at the State Department, his former
stomping grounds, where he has a sizable staff. There is little doubt that he
is advising the president on the ongoing talks with Iran since it was him who
signed the deal with Iran on July 14th, 2015, the deal Donald Trump withdrew
from and the deal Joe Biden is trying to resurrect.
At the end
of his political career John Kerry came back in a big way. If he can do
something about what many see as humanity's existential threat, history will be
kind to him.
--o--
BRIEFLY NOTED
RUSSIA 1: PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS
Some
observers continue to affirm that President Putin does not care so much about
the internal affairs of Russia but would have greater interest in international
relations. The April 2021 Address by President Putin once again confirms that
this is not entirely correct. In his latest address, Putin devotes a lot much time
to internal matters than to international ones.
The address
also reveals a certain frustration on the part of the President at the slow
implementation of some government programs. This fuels the debate about the
real extent of Putin’s power. The matter is not whether Putin is an
authoritarian leader but whether any Russian president or leader can bring the large
federal bureaucracy and the many regional managers into effective action. There
are intrinsic limits as to what can be achieved by instructions. No matter how
powerful he might be, he is clearly feeling these limits and talking about it
year after year. Scholars studying Russian history may recognize a long-standing
“conservative” pattern of inertia and resistance to change.
RUSSIA 2: THE RED LINES
In his
address Putin cautioned other international players not to cross Russia’s red
lines, or else. Neither Putin nor his Press Secretary were willing to provide
specific details as to what the red lines maybe. Ukraine membership of NATO
comes to mind, but was not mentioned, purposefully creating uncertainty about the
exact location where the red line might pass.
RUSSIA 3: MILITARY DISCIPLINE
A Russian military appeals court in Siberia
has upheld the sentence of Private Ramil Shamsutdinov, who was sentenced to 24
years in prison in January for killing eight fellow servicemen in a rampage he
says was the result of hazing he faced in the army.
The lawyers
said that it was not immediately clear if there would be a further appeal by
the victims' relatives, some of
whom had appealed the sentence as too lenient.
Shamsutdinov's
defense team has said their client went on a shooting spree in October 2019,
killing eight -- including two high-ranking officers -- in the town of Gorny in
the Zabaikalye region after being tortured and beaten by other soldiers and
officers during his induction into service.
In late
December 2020, a jury found Shamsutdinov guilty of murder and attempted murder,
but also said he deserved leniency, which according to Russian law meant his
sentence should not exceed 13 years in prison. Nevertheless, he was sentenced
to 24 years in January, while some of the victims' relatives sought life in
prison for him.
In recent
years, photos and video footage have been posted online by members of the
Russian military that show the severe bullying of young recruits as they are inducted
into the army.
RUSSIA 4: FREEDOM OF RELIGION
An
independent bipartisan advisory body has reiterated its call for the U.S.
State Department to add Russia to its register of the world's "worst
violators" of religious freedom, a blacklist that already includes Iran,
Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and six other countries.
The U.S.
Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), created by Congress to
make recommendations about global religious freedom, proposes in its annual
report released on April 21st that Russia, India, Syria, and Vietnam be put on
the "countries of particular concern" list, a category reserved for
those that carry out "systematic, ongoing, and egregious" violations
of religious freedoms. The blacklisting paves the way for sanctions if the
countries included do not improve their records.
A total of
188 criminal cases alone were brought against the banned Jehovah’s Witnesses,
while there were 477 searches of members' homes, with raids and interrogations
including "instances of torture that continue to go uninvestigated and
unpunished." Although Russian authorities may overextend the reach of
anti-extremism and anti-terrorism laws to deal with some Muslim groups, there
are also cases in predominantly Muslim areas, such as Chechnya, where regional
powers enforce a stringent version of Islam.
Russia
officially recognizes four traditional religions: Christianity, Islam, Buddhism
and Judaism. Other than the Jehovah’s Witnesses, the groups that encounter the
greatest difficulties are the evangelicals who try to engage in active
missionary work.
RUSSIA/BELARUS
In his April
address, Putin also mentioned the recent alleged US-sponsored assassination
attempt against President Lukashenko of Belarus. He rightly observed that the
affair was barely noticed outside of Belarus and Russia. Lack of interest
elsewhere might be explained by the impression that nothing of the kind could
happen in a heavily policed state such as Belarus and that it was, in the words
of an opposition leader, a provocation.
BELARUS
The new
U.S. ambassador to Belarus, Julie Fisher, has met with exiled opposition leader
Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya, just ahead of talks between authoritarian ruler
Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The meeting
took place on April 21st in Vilnius, the capital of neighboring Lithuania,
where former presidential candidate Tsikhanouskaya moved under pressure from
the Belarusian authorities shortly after Lukashenka claimed victory in a widely
disputed presidential election in August 2020.
Fisher met
with Tsikhanouskaya on the eve of the meeting between Putin and Lukashenko in
Moscow, during which the two were expected to discuss further deepening the ties
between the countries. Although for different reasons and with different
objectives, Lukashenko remains under pressure from both sides, but seems intent
on biding his time.
CANADA-TURKEY
Canada has
halted some military exports to NATO ally Turkey after a probe confirmed
Canadian drone technology was used by Azerbaijan in last year’s fighting with
Armenia over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Canada
suspended military export permits to Turkey last October pending an
investigation into allegations Canadian technology was misused when the Turkish
military provided armed drones to support Azerbaijan.
“Following
this review, which found credible evidence that Canadian technology exported to
Turkey was used in Nagorno-Karabakh, today I am announcing the cancellation of
permits that were suspended in the fall of 2020,” Canadian Foreign Minister
Marc Garneau said in an April 12th statement. “This use was not consistent with
Canadian foreign policy, nor end-use assurances given by Turkey,” he added.
ISRAEL
According
to the Israeli army, Syria fired a missile at an Israeli Air Force jet, missed
its target and landed near Dimona on April 22nd.
The Israeli
interceptor failed to shoot the missile down. Syria reported that an Israeli
strike near Damascus injured four soldiers in response.
There was
no immediate claim of responsibility for the missile strike or comment from
Iran. But on Saturday, Iran’s hard-line Kayhan newspaper published an opinion
piece by Iranian analyst Sadollah Zarei suggesting Israel’s Dimona facility be
targeted after the attack on the nuclear facility in Natanz. Zarei cited the
idea of “an eye for an eye” in his remarks.
The Dimona
reactor is the heart of the super secret Israeli nuclear program. According to
the CIA estimate Israel possesses between 200 and 400 nuclear warheads. Israel
is the only country in the world that practices "nuclear ambiguity" i.e. it neither confirms nor denies having nuclear weapons.
KYRGYZSTAN
Four
patients are being treated in hospitals in the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek, after
consuming a toxic root that had been promoted by President Sadyr Japarov as an
"effective" cure to treat COVID-19.
Doctors
said on April 21 that Duishon Abdyldaev, 63, was being treated for poisoning
with aconite root at the National Cardiology and Therapy Center, while three
other patients whose identities were not disclosed were being treated for
poisoning with the highly toxic root at the toxicology department of the
Bishkek Trauma and Orthopedic Center.
On April
15, Japarov said in a post on Facebook that the root had proven to be an
"effective" method to treat COVID-19.
The entry
contained a video showing men without protective equipment bottling a solution
with extracts from the aconite root, warning that drinking the solution while
it is cold might result in death.
--o--
THE AUTHORS
