THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER
THE STATUS QUO LEADER
Much has
been made of President Biden’s affirmative response to the question whether President
Putin is a killer. Was he morally right? In his own mind and that of his
supporters, certainly. Yet, after having authorised the release of the
intelligence report that accused Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman of
having approved the brutal killing of Jamal Khashoggi, Biden did not feel the
same compulsion to be morally right and stopped short of calling the Prince a
killer, opening the door to suggestions of a selective application of moral principles.
To his defence, he was not asked publicly about the Prince by any US journalist,
but that also raises questions about the choice made by the journalist who
asked the fatidic question.
Biden would
have known that his response would not have any effect in moving Putin or
Russia in the desired direction. If the terms of the impact of the message on
US domestic audiences, he may have wanted to get back at his predecessor by
contrasting his strong message with that of Trump who was perceived as too cozy
with Putin.
Biden stated during his campaign that foreign policy is about relationships. His posturing may in fact be revealing of his deeper state of mind when it comes to
dealing with Putin and Russia. By labeling Putin as a killer, he would seem to
have conceded that the working relationship that a US President has had with
his Soviet/Russian counterpart since the days of Reagan and Gorbachev is not worth protecting. In
other words, high-level engagement with Putin on the more contentious issues is
pointless as he cannot be expected to change his position. Russia will not concede
anything on Ukraine. It will not end its military intervention in Syria. Russia
is not the only one against change: the Biden administration is in a similar position
as it has no incentive to alter its position in a way that would facilitate any
compromise.
Having
written off dealing with contentious issues, engagement will continue in other
areas where progress is seen as possible and highly desirable, including international
disarmament and the Iran nuclear deal. Returning to the cybersecurity conversations that existed under
President Obama would require a rejection of the narrative that has prevailed since
the Democratic Party computers were hacked during the Clinton presidential
campaign in 2016. It would probably take
another major disaster that could be blamed on non-state or third state actors
to get things moving on that front.
Biden’s limited expectations for the US-Russia relationship will not prevent good things from happening from both sides’ point of view. For instance, the US will most likely continue to nurture not so discreetly its trade relations with Russia. By casting Putin as a killer, Biden has nevertheless complicated his own job as the lead interlocutor for the Russian President. From now on, Biden will have to justify to his domestic audiences conversing with an accused killer. In his attempt to regain a leadership position in the world, he will have to admit that in the case of Russia his real plan is essentially to keep the status quo while raising his voice. This may suit the UK, but not necessarily France or Germany, whose leaders incidentally had a three-way phone conversation with Putin on March 31st.
THE KILLER PRESIDENT
Vladimir
Putin’s reaction to being called a killer was, all things considered, rather
subdued. Moscow recalled its Ambassador to the US for consultations as is the normal
diplomatic way to express displeasure. Putin himself took the accusation
in stride wishing the US President good health and using the old playground
rhyme in response: “it takes one to know one”. To which he added the invitation
for a phone call “any time, as soon as possible”. In martial arts terms, the
blow was deflected. If anything, the accusation has strengthened the position
of hardliners in the foreign policy establishment.
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| Mirror image ©President of Russia Website |
THE COCOONED PRESIDENT
As he was
boarding a flight to Atlanta President Joe Biden stumbled and fell three times
on the steps of Air Force One on March 19th. Considering that he had two brain
aneurysms and surgeries in the 1980's, and he takes blood thinners and other
medications, it may be time to look at his physical and cognitive state. The
78-year-old, who is the oldest president in US history, appeared to struggle as
he boarded the presidential plane. It was not immediately clear what tripped President Biden up the first time, but shortly after recovering he fell twice more before
dusting himself off. Security officials, meanwhile, looked on with concern from
the ground. The President recovered to
give a salute at the top of the stairs. The White House said he "is doing
100 per cent fine" after his fall. Considering that Biden's health was
always an issue during the campaign and the fact that he is the least seen
modern president of the United States so far, what else could they really say?
The fall
was the most spectacular of any president who struggled with this typical
climb. This is the physical part of the problem. How about the mental acuity
and cognitive ability, the most disconcerting issues considering the importance
of his position?
On March
18th, in what would have seen as premonition by many, he accidentally called his
Vice-President “President Harris”. Throughout
the election campaign he has engaged in numerous gaffes, slurred words,
mispronouncing names, misidentifying people, such as calling his wife Jill his
sister.
A senior
pro-Kremlin politician in Russia accused Mr. Biden of having dementia, striking back after the US President called his counterpart Vladimir
Putin a "killer". To many
older Russians this may serve as a sad reminder of their own gerontocratic
experience of the late 70s. Republican critics have long claimed the President
is suffering from senility. However, Biden's latest medical report showed
no signs of any degenerative disease.
Despite
this, a new poll shows the number of Americans who approve of Biden has
grown steadily since he took office, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling from
March 17-18 national opinion poll found that 59 per cent of adults in the US
approved of Biden’s overall job performance, while 35 per cent disapproved and
6 per cent said they were not sure.
At the same
time, we can no longer turn a blind eye to Biden's frailty and clumsiness
simply because he is not Donald Trump. If he were an ordinary government employee,
he would have retired in about 2008. The most important question is: can he do
the job and will he be able to do it until 2024? His recently stated intention
to run again in 2024 would be no more than the normal defence against becoming
an early lame duck president.
The pace of
the presidency is relentless. It is the biggest job in the world. The
well-oiled machinery around the President can protect him from undue exertion,
but not all the time. We know the sense of responsibility weighs heavily on Biden's sagging shoulders. How will he handle his potential sit downs
with the likes of Putin, Xi Jinping or Kim Jong-un as well as with friendlier and much
younger allies in Europe?
--o--
TURKEY CONTINUES TO BE NATO'S BIG HEADACHE
A nonofficial
meeting between Libyan Field Marshal Haftar (who has the support of France and
Russia), and the leaders of the Tripoli national government backed and armed by
Turkey have finally set some parameters defining the relations between both
warring parts of Libya. For Ankara, the Libyan standoff, like the one in the
Syrian Idlib (which even though it is no longer much covered by Western media
is still of concern) and its backing of Azerbaijan against Armenia were a
serious obstacle to its general harmonious relations with Moscow. Right now,
Turkey is being subjected to unusually hard pressure by the United States even
more so than during the Trump years. The Biden administration suggested
that President Erdogan should return to Russia the recently purchased S-400 state of
the art air defence system due to Washington's fear that it threatens NATO's
military strategy. President Erdogan said no to this publicly even before the
official document had been delivered from NATO headquarters. He did it during
his zoom meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the opening ceremony
of the Russian-built nuclear power station in Turkey.
European
experts have suggested that Turkey, as a member of NATO, has attained a special
status that is in many ways undermining the unity of the alliance and its
policy coordination function.
 |
| Presidents Putin and Erdogan launching the construction of the third power unit of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, March 10th |
--o--
NOT ALLIES YET, HOWEVER
 |
The foreign
ministers Lavrov and Wang Yi, Guilin,
March 23rd |
--o--
UKRAINE UPDATE
At times
when the news from Ukraine are not necessarily very good, it would be easy to
yield to the temptation to see the situation as bleak and depressing. Yet, one
also gets the impression from other sources with a more intimate knowledge that
quality of life has increased, and that the economy activity is moving
along. On the economic side, despite
strong annual increases in the past few years, the GDP still has not returned
to its high levels of 2008 and 2015. Yet, what is more relevant is that the
poverty level has almost reached an all-time low. The agricultural sector is
thriving. Some other sectors such as software development are doing well,
taking advantage of the comparatively low salaries in Ukraine. Manufacturing,
not necessarily the traditional industries, has also seen significant yearly
increases. More transparent use of
government resources has allowed to maintain social assistance and increase
investment in infrastructure. In the latter case, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has also played a
major positive role. Whereas the overall population has certainly decreased and
median age has slightly increased, the Ukrainian laborers that have left to
create wealth elsewhere have made a large contribution to the homeland economy
with remittances from abroad reaching a record level in 2020. Seen from inside,
the situation is improving.
 |
President Zelenskyy meeting EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso, March 22nd |
Now for the
less good news.
There is
still no sign of call from President Biden to President Zelenskyy. The
explanation that has been suggested in Washington is that there would be little
use for a call that would be a mere rehearsal of the previous admonitions for
Ukraine to get its act together when dealing with corruption. In the meantime,
postponing a call also serves to reinforce the message that there is some
displeasure with recent developments in the fight against corruption and that
“there need to be the right actions and the right reforms,” as a US diplomatic source
stated. There is also little enthusiasm in the Biden administration for the
President’s personal involvement in Ukrainian affairs as it would provide
political opponents an opening to ask more questions about past Biden family
activity in Ukraine and force Biden to defend himself again on that front. There is also probably some sense that
President Zelenskyy wants peace with Russia more than his US supporters.
Beyond the
issues of corruption and reforms, there is probably as well the sense that the
current conflict situation between Ukraine and Russia serves US interests well.
Until the conflict is resolved, Russia remains in the doghouse. From a US point
of view, there is nothing wrong with that. Furthermore, a full resolution of
the conflict is virtually impossible as Russia will not give Crimea to Ukraine
a second time. A resolution of the conflict that would deal with Eastern
Ukraine would bring back pro-Russian elements into the Ukraine electorate and
it would probably give a boost to the still important Ukraine-Russia trade,
prospects that are not attractive to the US. It may not be that good for
Ukraine to have an open armed conflict within its boundaries but, seen from the
US, that is fine as it contributes to entrench Ukraine’s pro-Western
orientation.
There is
little doubt that the Ukrainian economy needs more direct foreign investment.
The Ukrainian authorities have nevertheless confirmed that if the investment is
from China and if it targets a sensitive defense industry it is not welcome.
Authorities confirmed that Motor Sich, the only aircraft engine maker in
Ukraine and one of the largest in the world, would be nationalised to prevent
it from falling into the hands of Skyrizon, a Chinese enterprise. It is well
known that the US firmly opposed a Chinese entity gaining control over Motor
Sich. The US opposition focused on preventing China from getting access to
technology that could be putting US allies in the Asian region at a
disadvantage and to allow China to fill a major gap in its aircraft engine
building capacity. The Ukraine position was more candid, observing that as a
country that is at war it should not let its technology “fall in the wrong
hands”.
Prior to
2014, Motor Sich used to supply aircraft engines to Russia. The loss of that
market has created a serious problem for the company. China could be the
replacement market, hence the interest of a Chinese company in acquiring Motor Sich.
The public
discussion around this topic has not extended to the competition on the world
market for civilian aircraft engine. While Motor Sich is prevented from
associating with China, General Electric and Rolls-Royce are working hard to
expand their presence on the Chinese civilian aircraft engine market. Motor
Sich, whose civilian-use products would be in direct competition with
comparable US and West European engines is prevented from entering a
partnership that would give it access to the lucrative Chinese market. At the
same time, international corporations, including US ones, are supplying
civilian aircraft engines to Russia, Motor Sich's traditional and now forbidden market.
Ukrainians may be learning the subtleties of US policy and the price of
American friendship.
Ultimately, at present, a nationalised Motor Sich does not seem likely to be able to enter any new
market that could feed its further development and expansion.
CEASE-FIRE VIOLATIONS
The late
March death of four Ukrainian soldiers marked the deadliest such event since a
cease-fire was agreed in the summer of 2020 on the confrontation line between
Ukrainian-controlled territory and the rebel regions of Eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine accused the rebel entities and their Russian allies of committing the
cease-fire violations. This came a few days after the Russian envoy to the
Normandy Four peace talks accused Ukraine of withholding its full commitment to
abide by the cease-fire agreement. The cease-fire is one of President
Zelenskyy’s first accomplishments in bringing the conflict closer to a
resolution. Any setback directly affects his authority.
VACCINES
Ukraine
found itself between a few chairs when it comes to the acquisition of vaccines.
It rejected Sputnik V, the more affordable Russian vaccine, on account of not
trusting Russia and not wanting to do business with the enemy. It could not afford to compete with other
wealthy buyers for early access to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. It was left
to wait for the delivery of vaccines through the WHO-led COVAX initiative that
provides vaccines to less affluent countries. It eventually signed contracts
with large vaccine producers to complement the COVAX supplies down the road.
It turns
out that there is even worse than getting vaccines late, that is not even
wanting them. In addition to the traditional general distrust of authorities,
there has been considerable inaccurate information circulating on social media
networks about vaccines. According to a recent survey, this has led to up to
60% of the population refusing to take the vaccine. The situation was
compounded by former President Poroshenko’s early March remarks in which he
quoted some medical professionals using excrement-related language to describe
the India-produced AstraZeneca vaccines that were first shipped to
Ukraine.
Ukraine now
seems to have reached the peak of its second wave. With more contagious new
variants most likely to show up and with a less than optimal vaccination
campaign, the outlook is not reassuring.
--o--
PERSONS OF THE MONTH: AYATOLLA SISTANI AND POPE FRANCIS
There have
been meetings before between a Catholic Pontiff and a high-ranking Islamic Cleric. The recent historical meeting between Pope Francis and Ayatollah Ali
Sistani does however deserve special attention not only for its religious
significance but as well for the underlying political message.
We are used
to see Catholic leaders conversing with their counterparts from other major
religious groups. We do not see so often an Islamic leader receiving a Roman
Catholic leader. The fraternal approach towards other religious groups that Ali
Sistani has been promoting does not frequently receive world attention.
The meeting
challenges widely held assumptions about a single-coloured Islam. It also
challenges similar assumptions about unavoidable conflict between Islam and
other religions.
The meeting
also serves a reminder of the historical ethnic and religious diversity within
the states that were assembled by European colonial powers to suit their
governance needs.
More from a
Christian point of view, Pope Francis highlights the collateral damage
inflicted on Christians in Iraq in the aftermath of the US invasion of the
country and the ensuing turmoil that led to the creation of the Islamic State (ISIS).
While the blame for the persecution of Christians clearly rests with ISIS, the
comparison between the situation of Christians before the US invasion and now makes one
wonder whether the apprentice sorcerers in charge of US policy at the time knew
about the country they were about to invade and really cared about its people.
It turns out they may have been wrong not only about the inexistence of weapons
of mass destruction.
In the
latter respect, it is worth observing there was limited interest among US
Catholics for the visit of Pope Francis to Iraq. It would seem they would
rather not be reminded even implicitly of the role the US may have played in the
events leading to the current painful situation of Christians in Iraq,
especially by a Pope that many of them see as way too progressive in any event.
--o--
BRIEFLY NOTED
RUSSIA
The head of
Russia's RDIF sovereign wealth fund says it has reached agreements with
companies from Italy, Spain, France, and Germany to launch production of the
Russian Sputnik V vaccine.
Kirill
Dmitriev, whose organization has funded the vaccine and is responsible for
selling it globally, said the deals would allow for the supply of Sputnik to
the European market once the approval is granted by the European Medicines
Agency (EMA). However, EU member Hungary has begun using it as part of its
vaccine rollout, even though it lacks approval by the European agency.
The Czech
Republic and Slovakia have also ordered doses and said they would not wait for
EMA approval. According to the RDIF, Sputnik V has been registered in more than
50 countries.
Alexander Baunov
of the Moscow office of the Carnegie Endowment authored an article in which he
develops the idea that the success and deployment of Sputnik V especially irks
Russia’s critics in the West as it contradicts the very image of Russia that
they espouse: with Sputnik V Russia is seen is technologically advanced,
humanitarian-minded, and even profitable rather than backward, aggressive, and
impoverished. US attempts to prevent Brazil,
one of the countries most affected by COVID-19, from acquiring Sputnik V prove
his point, but also reveal that political concerns can trump humanitarian ones.
ARMENIA
Building
railroads and roads will be “mutually beneficial” for Armenia and Azerbaijan,
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said on March 20th during a visit to
the country’s western Aragatsotn Province, as he attempted to ease concerns
about the development of such infrastructure projects.
Addressing
supporters in the village of Nerkin Bazmaberd, Pashinian noted that one of the
provisions of the trilateral statement signed by the leaders of Armenia,
Azerbaijan, and Russia ending last year’s war in Nagorno-Karabakh calls for the
unblocking of economic and transport links in the region.
This
includes the construction of new roads and railroads linking the Azerbaijani
exclave of Nakxchivan with mainland Azerbaijan via Armenian territory.
A
trilateral working group led by the deputy prime ministers of Armenia,
Azerbaijan, and Russia was formed in February to work on details of the
projects.
Pashinian’s
statement came two days after he announced early parliamentary elections in
June. During the rally, Pashinian did not conceal that his political team will
seek a fresh mandate from the people to be able to form a government again. He
said, however, that he and his team were ready to accept any outcome of the
elections. Pashinian since then confirmed that he would formally resign in April
but remain as interim PM until the elections.
Pashinian and his government have come under fire from various opposition parties and groups over the Armenian defeat in last year’s war in Nagorno-Karabakh. They have demanded Pashinian’s resignation since the Russian-brokered cease-fire was signed on November 10th, ending six weeks of hostilities in which thousands of soldiers were killed.
BULGARIA
Bulgarian
Prime Minister Boyko Borisov has called on Russia to stop spying on his
country, a day after authorities in the NATO member country busted an espionage group
passing military secrets to Russia.
Prosecutors
on March 19th charged six people, including former and current military
intelligence officers, of passing classified information about Bulgaria, NATO,
and the EU to the Russian Embassy in Sofia.
Since
October 2019, the EU and NATO member state has expelled five diplomats and
employees of the Russian Embassy accused of conducting intelligence work.
"Once
again it could be necessary to declare Russian diplomats as unwanted. With
yesterday's operation, I appeal again to their leaders to stop spying in
Bulgaria," Borisov said.
"Friendship
is friendship, but our Euro-Atlantic partnership is an unavoidable
factor," he added.
The Russian embassy denied the spying allegations, saying it was part of
"incessant attempts to drive a wedge in the Russian-Bulgarian dialogue and
once again demonize our country."
Bulgaria
has close cultural, historical, and economic ties with Russia, the country's
main energy partner.
MOLDOVA
Moldovan
President Maia Sandu revelaled that her country has received a shipment of 15.000 Astra-Zeneca
COVID-19 vaccines under the global COVAX scheme for poorer countries, a first
for Europe.
The
pro-Western president thanked Germany and other EU member states, as well as
the United States, Britain, Canada, Japan, and the European Commission for
showing “solidarity.”
The World
Health Organization said the country had secured enough doses of vaccines
through COVAX to cover about 1.7 million people, roughly half of its
population.
Moldova has
struggled in the global scramble to gain access to vaccines and welcomed
donations.
The
Moldovan drug regulator last month registered three vaccines -- Pfizer,
AstraZeneca, and the Russian-made Sputnik V -- for use in Moldova.
BELARUS
Alexander Lukashenko
used a televised appearance on March 19th to say that two former
Belarusian government ministers currently under Western sanctions would be
"strong candidates" who could succeed him after a possible
presidential election.
Lukashenko,
whose legitimacy is not recognized by many Western governments since a disputed
presidential election in August 2020 that sparked unprecedented and ongoing
protests, has refused to meet with opposition leaders to discuss their demands
for his exit and a fresh election.
Amid a
brutal crackdown that has included tens of thousands of detentions, opposition
leaders have accused Lukashenko of dangling possible reforms and a new election
simply to buy himself time as he seeks to complete a sixth term.
It was
unclear how serious Lukashenko was in his televised address when he held up former
Interior Minister Yury Karayeu and former Health Minister Uladzimir Karanik as
would-be candidates.
--o--
THE AUTHORS
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