THE BRETON/GEROLNEWSLETTER
HELSINKI SUMMIT: NEW INSIGHTS AFTER THE DUST HAS SETTLED
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| Presidents Trump and Putin, Helsinki, July 16th ©President of Russia Website |
Now, as the wave of indignation and wide-ranging accusations against Trump, not all of them evidently unfounded, has subsided, we can calmly discuss the outcome of that controversial meeting. Former State Secretary Henry Kissinger recently said that the Helsinki summit had to take place in any event, yet Trump's approach, as all of his foreign policy in general, marks the beginning of a new geopolitical era. Unfortunately, Kissinger added tongue in cheek, Trump most likely is not even aware of it.
Trump, in
his awkward ways, is trying to re-introduce a series of bilateral agreements by
circumventing old political and military alliances. Some of them were
introduced a long time ago at a time of totally different political realities
and, according to Trump's thinking, exist mainly due to American financial and
military assistance. As well, the Administration in its heart of hearts
believes the real threat to the West comes from a re-surging China, not Russia.
In fact the
Helsinki Summit had two agendas; one for the immediate public consumption that
included Russian involvement in American elections (Trump agreed with Putin that
there was no involvement by Russians at the state level, though later under
pressure Trump said he misspoke), cooperation on Syria in connection with the security
of Israel.
Two weeks
after the summit we are beginning to gather more information of the most
important part of that meeting-what was said behind closed doors. Trump and
Putin made some attempts to find a compromise on the most acute crisis in
Europe, the one that divides West and Russia more than anything else,-Ukraine.
Mike Pompeo informed the Senate that Trump and Putin agreed to disagree on the
Ukrainian issue. Moscow suggested holding a referendum in Donbass (that
includes two unrecognized Donetsk and Lugansk republics) under international
supervision on the political future of that region. Washington in turn offered
to provide 20 to 40 thousand international peacekeepers for the Donbass region
and international administration without any NATO or Russian representation.
There was
no agreement reached on that issue, but at least it could be offered to Ukraine
for consideration and discussed at the upcoming Normandy format meeting between
foreign ministry representatives of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia.
Not widely
publicized but discussed during the summit's closed door session was the
nuclear disarmament issue.
The New
START treaty signed between then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and then
U.S. President Barack Obama in 2010 will not survive automatically on its own.
The agreement, which reduced the number of strategic nuclear weapons to 700
deployed launchers and 1,550 warheads, is set to n expire on February 5, 2021, if
it is not prolonged by decision of the parties. Should this come to pass, the
multi polar international system will be thrown into chaos.
To prevent
a disastrous clash, the two countries need to maintain and strengthen the
arms-control safety net. This also includes resolving disputes over the
implementation of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) a cornerstone of
European security. That is why it is necessary to resume the Russia-US dialogue
that will lead to official negotiations. For now, the agenda should be narrow,
prioritizing three key issues: the prolongation of the New START treaty, the preservation
of the INF Treaty, and the prevention of dangerous military accidents.
With this
in mind, and brushing aside internal American squabbles and concerns, real or
not, on the merits of the Russian involvement in 2016 American elections, the
Trump administration had decided to invite Vladimir Putin to Washington for
another summit where those concerns, mainly nuclear safety, reduction and arms
race control would be high on the agenda.
However the
next summit between Trump and Putin was abruptly postponed by the
Administration in order to give Mueller Inquiry time to conclude its
investigation into Russian election meddling. As John Bolton, National Security
Adviser, put it: “The President believes that the next bilateral meeting with
President Putin should take place after the Russia witch hunt is over, so we
have agreed that it will be after January 1st, 2019".
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| Presidents Trump and Putin, Helsinki, July 16th ©President of Russia Website |
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IRAN-SYRIA ISRAEL FOOTNOTE
Donald
Trump may like to present himself as the best friend of Israel. In the
discussions around military developments in the south of Syria and their impact
on the security of Israel, it is, however, far from clear that he is the main
player. President Putin and Prime Minister Netanyahu have been frequent
interlocutors and seem to have developed a strong relationship. Once they have
had their discussion about what to with Iran in Syria, one has the impression that
they will play Trump, but not expect him to influence decisions. This leaves
Trump to do the posturing, that he does rather well. Unfortunately, it also can
incite him to believe he has to take the initiative on the broader issues
underpinning the US-Iran conflict. His recent offer to meet Iranian President
Rouhani is consistent with his belief that he personally can resolve any
problem. After North Korea, US national security specialists may be in for another
interesting ride.
--o--
LIAR, LIAR OR MR. TRUMP’S TRUTH MANAGEMENT SKILLS
After his
controversial statement during the press conference following his meeting with
Vladimir Putin in Helsinki on July 16th, Donald Trump was accused of high
treason by John Brennan, the former head of the CIA, for appearing to believe
the Russian President more than his own intelligence services on the matter of
Russian meddling in the 2016 US presidential election.
Despite
Trump’s later explanation about having meant to use a double negative, it is
abundantly clear that he indeed believes Putin more than US intelligence. For
him, though, this is not a matter of disloyalty to the US security
establishment. This is a matter of him believing what suits him best, what he
wants to believe. The US intelligence story would suggest that Russia
influenced the outcome of the Presidential election in several ways. For Trump
the legitimacy of his presidency and the belief that he won “hugely” matter
more than the truth, in this case as in many others.
Ironically,
one learns more about the Russian meddling in the 2016 election from Putin’s
interview with Fox News later on the day of the Summit than from any of Trump’s
statements. Whereas Putin expectedly denies any official Russian government
involvement in the election, he avoids, as before, denying involvement by
Russians in the hacking of Democratic National Committee (DNC) email servers.
Instead, rather than addressing the issue head on, he keeps insisting on the
fact that the emails that were eventually made public are a true record. In
other words, Russians most likely did it, but, by getting access to the emails
and publishing them, only made the truth available to the American public. In
Putin’s mind, this is clearly a lesser sin, if one at all. Whether Trump likes
it or not, Russian hackers exposing the duplicity of the DNC and, separately
but even more, FBI Director Comey’s last minute flip-flop on Hillary Clinton’s
emails had an influence on the election outcome. By comparison, the alleged
Russian use of social networks appears much less significant in terms of its
overall scope and impact.
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| Presient Putin interviewed by Fox News/Chris Wallace, July 16th ©President of Russia Website |
Putin’s
virtual back-door admission of a general Russian responsibility for hacking the
DNC servers, but not of a Russian government specific action, would be good
enough for Donald Trump, even though it would be difficult for him to admit
that he owes even part of his Electoral College victory to Russia. For Trump’s
adversaries, confining Russian responsibility to one successful but relatively circumscribed
action and attributing it to non-government actors is far from satisfactory. To
many, it might indeed be inconceivable to believe that there are non-state
actors in Putin’s Russia. The incident also inconveniently exposes some
Democratic Party leaders’ questionable behaviour. One should bear in mind,
however, that Robert Mueller’s investigation mandate includes finding possible
links between Donald Trump’s campaign and the Russian government, the collusion
that Trump constantly denies. Ultimately, despite the serious allegations
supported by US intelligence and already 15 months of work, Mueller may never
find anything that can reasonably be prosecuted in a US court, but the scrutiny
to which it exposes Trump’s entourage has already revealed enough turpitude and
poor judgment to justify its continuation. For Trump’s political opponents, the
Mueller inquiry serves too many purposes to be abandoned. To them, the fact
that the current climate prevents the President from taking any significant,
even necessary, new Russia-related initiative and that it essentially makes
US-Russia relations dependent on a highly partisan US debate is only collateral
damage. The above-mentioned postponement of the proposed Putin visit to Washington
is only an example of that.
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TRUMP'S TRADE WARS-UPS AND DOWNS
After
announcing the raise of tariffs on aluminum and steel produced in Canada,
China, Russia and Europe President Trump continues to threaten to introduce
even harsher measures against European cars imported to the US. The main target
of his trade hostilities has become China; he announced his intentions to apply
higher tariffs to all goods imported from China. Trump's calculations are based
on the fact that China is no position to reciprocate in kind; Chinese exports
to the US by far exceed the stream of American goods to China. Yet Beijing,
according to insiders, is preparing to retaliate in different way: Chinese are
ready to withdraw almost a trillion dollars’ worth of investments in the US
economy and banks.
In a most
unexpected twist of his global trade war, Trump recently announced that he
could be ready to abolish all tariffs if other trade partners would do the
same.
Jean-Claude
Juncker, the chairman of European council, had commented: every madness has a
system. The correctness of this statement had been immediately confirmed by
Trump's sudden suggestion, during his meeting with Juncker in the White House,
that all tariffs between US and EU could be abolished should both sides agree
to it. In fact such a radical measure cannot even be implemented without long
and painstaking negotiations. The situation is made even more unrealistic by
the fact that tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China are already in place.
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UKRAINE UPDATE
There may
be some perverse irony, but there is also some astuteness in the alleged
Russian proposal to hold a popular democratic referendum in the rebel regions
of Eastern Ukraine to ascertain the wishes of the population as to its
political future. Russia was not unaware of the fact that the proposal would be
met with a negative reaction in Kyiv. Its rejection is not a surprise. It,
however, serves to highlight the fact that there is no political support in
Kyiv for a negotiated political settlement of the conflict with the rebel
regions, to the point where direct political dialogue with the leaders of the
rebel regions is anathema. In that context, the idea of the referendum would be
formally to bypass the rebel authorities and hear directly from the people
living in the region and give them a voice in the attempts to settle the
conflict. Such a “concession” is not currently acceptable to Kyiv authorities.
With the presidential and parliamentary elections around the corner, the
likelihood of a substantial change in Kyiv’s position is even more unlikely.
There is, however, the outside chance that one influential oligarch might pick
up on the idea. The Russian proposal, in any event, puts Kyiv on the defensive.
As a central government apparently unwilling to hear the views of the
inhabitants of one of its regions, it puts Ukraine in the same camp as Spain in
its conflict with Catalonian independence partisans. All in all, Russia has
lost nothing by making the proposal, but has scored if nothing else a small
political argument.
The
allegations to the effect that the current authorities in Kyiv harbour a
significant number of fascists, anti-Semitic or xenophobic elements have often
been written off as part of the Moscow propaganda. Granted, the composition of
the Ukrainian government and the historical views of some of its members do not
change substantially the nature of its current conflict with Russia.
Nevertheless, the glorification of certain WWII actors that are considered in
Ukraine as national heroes, but are considered elsewhere, including in other
countries such as Poland and Russia, as war criminals will not cease to be a
most controversial and sensitive issue. So is the relative greater frequency of
a political discourse that is associated with far-right ideas, even though it
should be noted that such a discourse also exists in neighbouring countries.
The recent occurrence of racially-motivated incidents and the publication of
articles in the Western press condemning them has highlighted the problem and
the fact that it is not exclusively a matter of Russian propaganda. This in
itself will not change the course of events or the support Ukraine
unconditionally receives from its North American allies. It can, however, have
a long-term impact on the public opinion debate in which Ukraine has been doing
very well so far.
On the
separate matter of Crimea, cracks are continuing to appear in the relatively
unanimous support Ukraine initially received. Matteo Salvini, Italy’s Interior
Minister and once political ally of Marine Le Pen, created an uproar by his
statement that referred to “some historically Russian zones with Russian
culture and traditions which legitimately belong to the Russian Federation” as
well as to the legitimacy of the 2014 Crimea referendum. He was critical of the
Crimea-related sanctions calling them “not useful and as hurting Italian
exports”. He also went as far as to call the 2014 Ukrainian revolution a
"pseudo-revolution financed by foreign powers". Italian Foreign Minister
Enzo Moavero Milanesi swiftly replied by reiterating Italy’s support for the EU
position on Crimea and that Rome "respects" Ukraine's right to
sovereignty.
We had
already reported on President Trump’s remarks about Crimea “being Russian
because they speak Russian there”. In the aftermath of the Putin Trump Summit,
Secretary of State Pompeo had to reiterate publicly and firmly the US position
on Crimea. Canada did it a few days later. Rumours will nevertheless continue
to circulate about a possible Crimea/Donbass trade-off between Ukraine and
Russia. Such a trade-off remains unlikely, at least for the foreseeable future.
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| President Poroshenko, Mrs. Poroshenko leading the procession Kyiv, July28th ©President of Ukraine Website |
The public
celebrations on the occasion of the1030th anniversary of the adoption of
Christianity in lands that are now part of Belarus, Ukraine and Russia
highlighted once more the political sensitivity of jurisdictional issues in the
Ukrainian religious domain. On the occasion of this solemn anniversary, two
separate processions were organised in Kyiv, the first one by the Church that
remains affiliated to the Moscow Patriarchate, the second one by the two
independent Ukrainian churches. There was a large difference of opinion between
the organisers and the police authorities as to the level of attendance for the
first procession (250,000 vs 25,000). President Poroshenko attended the second
one and reiterated the call for the recognition of an independent Ukrainian
Orthodox Church by the Patriarch of Constantinople. Yet, Poroshenko’s activism
on religious matters does not seem to have had any effect on his popular rating.
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BRICS-ONE OF THE ALTERNATIVES IN THE MULTI-POLAR WORLD
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| BRICS family photo, leaders andi nvited participants, July 27th |
The July
summit of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in South Africa
stressed the necessity to develop closer cooperation between its members with
the objective to become a financial and industrial hub that could attract more
members and partners. The financial locomotive of this organization is
naturally China. Together with Russia, Beijing will increase the role of high
technology in that group in order to work towards some competitive level with
such alliances as the EU and ASEAN.
According
to the latest information Turkish President Erdogan applied for his country's
membership in this group. Apart from the substantial economic weight that
Turkey carries, Ankara joining BRICS would solidify this alliance's political
significance. This turn of events takes on special significance in light of
Turkey's repeated statements that the country may consider leaving NATO.
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OIL AND POLITICS
Rebels in
Yemen attacked two Saudi oil tankers in Bab-el-Mandeb strait and forced them to
return to port. Riyadh decided to take their oil through the Red Sea, a
lengthier route that will surely increase transportation costs and consequently
oil prices at world markets. At the same time India, one of the most stable
buyers of Iranian oil has announced its decision to decrease its purchase of
Iranian crude in favor of Saudi or Russian suppliers. Major international
industrial companies hastily retreating from Iran are not even waiting for
November 4th, the deadline for American sanctions against Iran to come into
effect. This has already brought the Iranian currency to its lowest level in 15
years. The Iranian government reacted by introducing strict hard currency
exchange rules. This in turn will contribute even more to the currency's
downfall and worsen the economic situation in the country. There is little
doubt that Iranians will come out to the streets to protest economic hardships.
Many political observers believe that Tehran will provoke a military clash or
even a war at Hormuz or Bab-el-Mandeb straits, to deflect popular attention by
whipping out nationalism, to suppress dissent and also to help increase oil
prices.
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WORLD CUP TOURISM
For Russia
as the host country, this year’s edition of the World Cup of Football was a
success, only mitigated by the defeat of its national team in quarter finals.
The fact that the defeat was in overtime, at the hands of Croatia, and that the
Russian team accomplished much more than expected softened the blow.
Media
widely reported that a large number of the first-time visitors to Russia were
suitably impressed by the welcoming nature of the country and by the efficient
organisation of the tournament. Many observed on the contrast between the image
of Russia as presented in Western media and the reality they could observe with
their very eyes. President Putin himself could not resist mentioning it. The
impact of the World Cup 2018 on the image of Russia will not wipe out overnight
any disagreement Russia may have with its Western adversaries. It may however
affect the tone of the world media coverage in the long term.
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PERSON OF THE MONTH:
VIKTOR ORBAN
The controversial
Hungarian Prime Minister has become one of the most talked about political
leaders in Europe. Media likes to describe him as "Soft Eurosceptic".
On some issues he is not so soft: he leads the anti-Ukrainian campaign in NATO
and the EU on account of the alleged discrimination against Hungarian speakers in
the Carpathian region of Ukraine. Orban leads the Eastern European opposition
to the mass influx of illegal migrants from the Middle East, Africa and other Third
World countries. His opposition to EU immigration policies, widely condemned by
most Western countries, is based on his vision of security and cultural balance
inside Hungary.
Orban is largely
supported in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland and by some populist parties
in Western Europe.
Born in
1963, Viktor Orban transformed himself from a young communist at the age of 15
to an established conservative leader of his country. He maintains a balance
between Hungary's membership in NATO and the EU with good relations with
Moscow. Also, in spite of some accusations of antisemitism, Orban became the
first European leader to officially visit and pray at the Western wall in
contravention of long standing EU policy that considers this part of Jerusalem
occupied territory.
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BRIEFLY NOTED
RUSSIA
The
unpopular pension reform that was cleverly introduced without too much fanfare
during the World Cup of Football has now triggered mass demonstrations in
Russia cities. The protests are led by the Communist Party and other left wing
political organizations that are coming back from political oblivion by riding
the wave of current rallies. The Russian government, bearing in mind historical
precedents in the country, takes such demonstrations seriously. It was
therefore decided to re-work certain provisions of the reform and to delay the
vote in Parliament.
UKRAINE
According
to sources in Minsk where the contact group on Donbass conflict had an
emergency meeting there is a planned exchange of political prisoners between
Russia and Ukraine slated for August 2018. This means that Oleg Sentsov, the
Ukrainian film director who was sentenced by a Russian court to 20 years for
"terrorist activities" and whose release was demanded by many across
the world finally could be freed.
RUSSIA-SYRIA
Meeting in
the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi, representatives of Russia, Iran, and
Turkey have kicked off two days of talks on issues related to the war in Syria.
The gathering comes as Turkey announced on July 29 that it is planning to hold
a summit with France, Germany, and Russia in early September to discuss the
Syrian conflict and other regional issues. The Russian delegation in Sochi is
headed by the Kremlin's special envoy for Syria, Aleksandr Lavrentyev. Iranian
Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Ansari and his Turkish counterpart, Sedat Onal,
were also expected to attend, along with the UN special envoy for Syria,
Staffan de Mistura, and representatives of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s
government.
ARMENIA
Former
ex-president Kocharyan was detained in Yerevan on charges of bribery and money
laundering. This announcement comes amid large scare anti-corruption measures
by the new Government of Nikol Pashinyan, that came to power on the wave of
mass street demonstrations. Scores of current and former Armenian politicians
were recently purged or arrested on various corruption and abuse of power
charges.
KAZAKHSTAN-KYRGYZSTAN
Kazakh
Defense Minister Saken Zhasuzaqov traveled to Bishkek on July 25, making the
first official visit by a Kazakh defense chief to Kyrgyzstan since the two
Central Asian nations gained independence in the 1991 after the collapse of the
Soviet Union.
Zhasuzaqov's
talks with the chief of the Kyrgyz armed forces' General Staff, Raiymberdi
Duishenbiev, focused on regional security and military cooperation, the Kyrgyz
military said. An agreement on military intelligence cooperation was signed
after the talks.
The two
countries are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)
along with Russia, Armenia, Belarus, and Tajikistan.
SOUTH OSSETIA
Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad has met with the visiting head of the Georgian
breakaway region of South Ossetia on July 23rd, two months after Damascus
become one of only a handful of countries to recognize the region's declared
independence.
Assad's
office revealed that Anatoly Bibilov, the de facto president of South Ossetia,
was in Syria on a three-day visit. Assad thanked him for backing his government
in its seven-year civil war against various rebels and for recognizing Syria's
"sovereignty" and "unity." Venezuela, Nicaragua, and the
Pacific island of Nauru are the only other states that have also recognized
Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states.
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THE AUTHORS
Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His particular area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe. Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, had become a textbook on relations of media and society.
During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.
