Wednesday, March 31, 2021

Issue 51

THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER


THE STATUS QUO LEADER

Much has been made of President Biden’s affirmative response to the question whether President Putin is a killer. Was he morally right? In his own mind and that of his supporters, certainly. Yet, after having authorised the release of the intelligence report that accused Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman of having approved the brutal killing of Jamal Khashoggi, Biden did not feel the same compulsion to be morally right and stopped short of calling the Prince a killer, opening the door to suggestions of a selective application of moral principles. To his defence, he was not asked publicly about the Prince by any US journalist, but that also raises questions about the choice made by the journalist who asked the fatidic question.



Biden would have known that his response would not have any effect in moving Putin or Russia in the desired direction. If the terms of the impact of the message on US domestic audiences, he may have wanted to get back at his predecessor by contrasting his strong message with that of Trump who was perceived as too cozy with Putin.

Biden stated during his campaign that foreign policy is about relationships. His posturing may in fact be revealing of his deeper state of mind when it comes to dealing with Putin and Russia. By labeling Putin as a killer, he would seem to have conceded that the working relationship that a US President has had with his Soviet/Russian counterpart since the days of Reagan and Gorbachev is not worth protecting.  In other words, high-level engagement with Putin on the more contentious issues is pointless as he cannot be expected to change his position. Russia will not concede anything on Ukraine. It will not end its military intervention in Syria. Russia is not the only one against change: the Biden administration is in a similar position as it has no incentive to alter its position in a way that would facilitate any compromise.  

Having written off dealing with contentious issues, engagement will continue in other areas where progress is seen as possible and highly desirable, including international disarmament and the Iran nuclear deal. Returning to the cybersecurity conversations that existed under President Obama would require a rejection of the narrative that has prevailed since the Democratic Party computers were hacked during the Clinton presidential campaign in 2016.  It would probably take another major disaster that could be blamed on non-state or third state actors to get things moving on that front.

Biden’s limited expectations for the US-Russia relationship will not prevent good things from happening from both sides’ point of view. For instance, the US will most likely continue to nurture not so discreetly its trade relations with Russia. By casting Putin as a killer, Biden has nevertheless complicated his own job as the lead interlocutor for the Russian President. From now on, Biden will have to justify to his domestic audiences conversing with an accused killer. In his attempt to regain a leadership position in the world, he will have to admit that in the case of Russia his real plan is essentially to keep the status quo while raising his voice. This may suit the UK, but not necessarily France or Germany, whose leaders incidentally had a three-way phone conversation with Putin on March 31st.

 

THE KILLER PRESIDENT

Vladimir Putin’s reaction to being called a killer was, all things considered, rather subdued. Moscow recalled its Ambassador to the US for consultations as is the normal diplomatic way to express displeasure. Putin himself took the accusation in stride wishing the US President good health and using the old playground rhyme in response: “it takes one to know one”. To which he added the invitation for a phone call “any time, as soon as possible”. In martial arts terms, the blow was deflected. If anything, the accusation has strengthened the position of hardliners in the foreign policy establishment.

 

Mirror image
©President of Russia Website

THE COCOONED PRESIDENT

As he was boarding a flight to Atlanta President Joe Biden stumbled and fell three times on the steps of Air Force One on March 19th. Considering that he had two brain aneurysms and surgeries in the 1980's, and he takes blood thinners and other medications, it may be time to look at his physical and cognitive state. The 78-year-old, who is the oldest president in US history, appeared to struggle as he boarded the presidential plane. It was not immediately clear what tripped President Biden up the first time, but shortly after recovering he fell twice more before dusting himself off. Security officials, meanwhile, looked on with concern from the ground.  The President recovered to give a salute at the top of the stairs. The White House said he "is doing 100 per cent fine" after his fall. Considering that Biden's health was always an issue during the campaign and the fact that he is the least seen modern president of the United States so far, what else could they really say?



The fall was the most spectacular of any president who struggled with this typical climb. This is the physical part of the problem. How about the mental acuity and cognitive ability, the most disconcerting issues considering the importance of his position?

On March 18th, in what would have seen as premonition by many, he accidentally called his Vice-President “President Harris”.  Throughout the election campaign he has engaged in numerous gaffes, slurred words, mispronouncing names, misidentifying people, such as calling his wife Jill his sister.

A senior pro-Kremlin politician in Russia accused Mr. Biden of having dementia, striking back after the US President called his counterpart Vladimir Putin a "killer".  To many older Russians this may serve as a sad reminder of their own gerontocratic experience of the late 70s. Republican critics have long claimed the President is suffering from senility. However, Biden's latest medical report showed no signs of any degenerative disease.

Despite this, a new poll shows the number of Americans who approve of Biden has grown steadily since he took office, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling from March 17-18 national opinion poll found that 59 per cent of adults in the US approved of Biden’s overall job performance, while 35 per cent disapproved and 6 per cent said they were not sure.

At the same time, we can no longer turn a blind eye to Biden's frailty and clumsiness simply because he is not Donald Trump. If he were an ordinary government employee, he would have retired in about 2008. The most important question is: can he do the job and will he be able to do it until 2024? His recently stated intention to run again in 2024 would be no more than the normal defence against becoming an early lame duck president.

The pace of the presidency is relentless. It is the biggest job in the world. The well-oiled machinery around the President can protect him from undue exertion, but not all the time. We know the sense of responsibility weighs heavily on Biden's sagging shoulders. How will he handle his potential sit downs with the likes of Putin, Xi Jinping or Kim Jong-un as well as with friendlier and much younger allies in Europe?

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TURKEY CONTINUES TO BE NATO'S BIG HEADACHE

A nonofficial meeting between Libyan Field Marshal Haftar (who has the support of France and Russia), and the leaders of the Tripoli national government backed and armed by Turkey have finally set some parameters defining the relations between both warring parts of Libya. For Ankara, the Libyan standoff, like the one in the Syrian Idlib (which even though it is no longer much covered by Western media is still of concern) and its backing of Azerbaijan against Armenia were a serious obstacle to its general harmonious relations with Moscow. Right now, Turkey is being subjected to unusually hard pressure by the United States even more so than during the Trump years. The Biden administration suggested that President Erdogan should return to Russia the recently purchased S-400 state of the art air defence system due to Washington's fear that it threatens NATO's military strategy. President Erdogan said no to this publicly even before the official document had been delivered from NATO headquarters. He did it during his zoom meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the opening ceremony of the Russian-built nuclear power station in Turkey.

European experts have suggested that Turkey, as a member of NATO, has attained a special status that is in many ways undermining the unity of the alliance and its policy coordination function.

Presidents Putin and Erdogan launching the construction of the third power
 unit of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, March 10th 


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NOT ALLIES YET, HOWEVER

The foreign ministers Lavrov and Wang Yi,  Guilin, March 23rd


The long-serving and already legendary Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov visited China at the end of March. The visit was not planned long beforehand and, in many ways, could be construed as a reaction to an avalanche of anti-Russian statements from Washington, London and Brussels. Political and military issues dominated the agenda. It has become again acceptable in Moscow to mention Beijing as a capital of the "friendliest to Russia" country, while the Chinese themselves avoid such definitive statements. The editorial in "Zhenmin zhibao" newspaper (Chinese version of the New York Times, Pravda and the CBC all rolled into one) mentioned that while China does not enter any sort of alliances as part of its national doctrine, the crude attacks against Beijing and Moscow bring both countries closer to each other in today's dangerous political climate. Jen Psaki, Biden's spokesperson, recently said that the Pesident's foreign policy could be characterized as "straightforward". The absence of nuances in such an approach pushes China and Russia closer to each other despite Washington's wishes. Lavrov's visit to Beijing serves as a confirmation of that.

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UKRAINE UPDATE

At times when the news from Ukraine are not necessarily very good, it would be easy to yield to the temptation to see the situation as bleak and depressing. Yet, one also gets the impression from other sources with a more intimate knowledge that quality of life has increased, and that the economy activity is moving along.  On the economic side, despite strong annual increases in the past few years, the GDP still has not returned to its high levels of 2008 and 2015. Yet, what is more relevant is that the poverty level has almost reached an all-time low. The agricultural sector is thriving. Some other sectors such as software development are doing well, taking advantage of the comparatively low salaries in Ukraine. Manufacturing, not necessarily the traditional industries, has also seen significant yearly increases.  More transparent use of government resources has allowed to maintain social assistance and increase investment in infrastructure. In the latter case, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has also played a major positive role. Whereas the overall population has certainly decreased and median age has slightly increased, the Ukrainian laborers that have left to create wealth elsewhere have made a large contribution to the homeland economy with remittances from abroad reaching a record level in 2020. Seen from inside, the situation is improving.

President Zelenskyy meeting EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso, March 22nd



Now for the less good news.

There is still no sign of call from President Biden to President Zelenskyy. The explanation that has been suggested in Washington is that there would be little use for a call that would be a mere rehearsal of the previous admonitions for Ukraine to get its act together when dealing with corruption. In the meantime, postponing a call also serves to reinforce the message that there is some displeasure with recent developments in the fight against corruption and that “there need to be the right actions and the right reforms,” as a US diplomatic source stated. There is also little enthusiasm in the Biden administration for the President’s personal involvement in Ukrainian affairs as it would provide political opponents an opening to ask more questions about past Biden family activity in Ukraine and force Biden to defend himself again on that front.  There is also probably some sense that President Zelenskyy wants peace with Russia more than his US supporters.  

Beyond the issues of corruption and reforms, there is probably as well the sense that the current conflict situation between Ukraine and Russia serves US interests well. Until the conflict is resolved, Russia remains in the doghouse. From a US point of view, there is nothing wrong with that. Furthermore, a full resolution of the conflict is virtually impossible as Russia will not give Crimea to Ukraine a second time. A resolution of the conflict that would deal with Eastern Ukraine would bring back pro-Russian elements into the Ukraine electorate and it would probably give a boost to the still important Ukraine-Russia trade, prospects that are not attractive to the US. It may not be that good for Ukraine to have an open armed conflict within its boundaries but, seen from the US, that is fine as it contributes to entrench Ukraine’s pro-Western orientation.

There is little doubt that the Ukrainian economy needs more direct foreign investment. The Ukrainian authorities have nevertheless confirmed that if the investment is from China and if it targets a sensitive defense industry it is not welcome. Authorities confirmed that Motor Sich, the only aircraft engine maker in Ukraine and one of the largest in the world, would be nationalised to prevent it from falling into the hands of Skyrizon, a Chinese enterprise. It is well known that the US firmly opposed a Chinese entity gaining control over Motor Sich. The US opposition focused on preventing China from getting access to technology that could be putting US allies in the Asian region at a disadvantage and to allow China to fill a major gap in its aircraft engine building capacity. The Ukraine position was more candid, observing that as a country that is at war it should not let its technology “fall in the wrong hands”.



Prior to 2014, Motor Sich used to supply aircraft engines to Russia. The loss of that market has created a serious problem for the company. China could be the replacement market, hence the interest of a Chinese company in acquiring Motor Sich. 

The public discussion around this topic has not extended to the competition on the world market for civilian aircraft engine. While Motor Sich is prevented from associating with China, General Electric and Rolls-Royce are working hard to expand their presence on the Chinese civilian aircraft engine market. Motor Sich, whose civilian-use products would be in direct competition with comparable US and West European engines is prevented from entering a partnership that would give it access to the lucrative Chinese market. At the same time, international corporations, including US ones, are supplying civilian aircraft engines to Russia, Motor Sich's traditional and now forbidden market. Ukrainians may be learning the subtleties of US policy and the price of American friendship.

Ultimately, at present, a nationalised Motor Sich does not seem likely to be able to enter any new market that could feed its further development and expansion.  

CEASE-FIRE VIOLATIONS

The late March death of four Ukrainian soldiers marked the deadliest such event since a cease-fire was agreed in the summer of 2020 on the confrontation line between Ukrainian-controlled territory and the rebel regions of Eastern Ukraine. Ukraine accused the rebel entities and their Russian allies of committing the cease-fire violations. This came a few days after the Russian envoy to the Normandy Four peace talks accused Ukraine of withholding its full commitment to abide by the cease-fire agreement. The cease-fire is one of President Zelenskyy’s first accomplishments in bringing the conflict closer to a resolution. Any setback directly affects his authority.

VACCINES

Ukraine found itself between a few chairs when it comes to the acquisition of vaccines. It rejected Sputnik V, the more affordable Russian vaccine, on account of not trusting Russia and not wanting to do business with the enemy.  It could not afford to compete with other wealthy buyers for early access to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. It was left to wait for the delivery of vaccines through the WHO-led COVAX initiative that provides vaccines to less affluent countries. It eventually signed contracts with large vaccine producers to complement the COVAX supplies down the road.

It turns out that there is even worse than getting vaccines late, that is not even wanting them. In addition to the traditional general distrust of authorities, there has been considerable inaccurate information circulating on social media networks about vaccines. According to a recent survey, this has led to up to 60% of the population refusing to take the vaccine. The situation was compounded by former President Poroshenko’s early March remarks in which he quoted some medical professionals using excrement-related language to describe the India-produced AstraZeneca vaccines that were first shipped to Ukraine. 

Ukraine now seems to have reached the peak of its second wave. With more contagious new variants most likely to show up and with a less than optimal vaccination campaign, the outlook is not reassuring.

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PERSONS OF THE MONTH: AYATOLLA SISTANI AND POPE FRANCIS



There have been meetings before between a Catholic Pontiff and a high-ranking Islamic Cleric. The recent historical meeting between Pope Francis and Ayatollah Ali Sistani does however deserve special attention not only for its religious significance but as well for the underlying political message.

We are used to see Catholic leaders conversing with their counterparts from other major religious groups. We do not see so often an Islamic leader receiving a Roman Catholic leader. The fraternal approach towards other religious groups that Ali Sistani has been promoting does not frequently receive world attention. 

The meeting challenges widely held assumptions about a single-coloured Islam. It also challenges similar assumptions about unavoidable conflict between Islam and other religions.

The meeting also serves a reminder of the historical ethnic and religious diversity within the states that were assembled by European colonial powers to suit their governance needs.

More from a Christian point of view, Pope Francis highlights the collateral damage inflicted on Christians in Iraq in the aftermath of the US invasion of the country and the ensuing turmoil that led to the creation of the Islamic State (ISIS). While the blame for the persecution of Christians clearly rests with ISIS, the comparison between the situation of Christians before the US invasion and now makes one wonder whether the apprentice sorcerers in charge of US policy at the time knew about the country they were about to invade and really cared about its people. It turns out they may have been wrong not only about the inexistence of weapons of mass destruction. 

In the latter respect, it is worth observing there was limited interest among US Catholics for the visit of Pope Francis to Iraq. It would seem they would rather not be reminded even implicitly of the role the US may have played in the events leading to the current painful situation of Christians in Iraq, especially by a Pope that many of them see as way too progressive in any event.

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BRIEFLY NOTED

 

RUSSIA

 

The head of Russia's RDIF sovereign wealth fund says it has reached agreements with companies from Italy, Spain, France, and Germany to launch production of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine.

Kirill Dmitriev, whose organization has funded the vaccine and is responsible for selling it globally, said the deals would allow for the supply of Sputnik to the European market once the approval is granted by the European Medicines Agency (EMA). However, EU member Hungary has begun using it as part of its vaccine rollout, even though it lacks approval by the European agency.

The Czech Republic and Slovakia have also ordered doses and said they would not wait for EMA approval. According to the RDIF, Sputnik V has been registered in more than 50 countries.

Alexander Baunov of the Moscow office of the Carnegie Endowment authored an article in which he develops the idea that the success and deployment of Sputnik V especially irks Russia’s critics in the West as it contradicts the very image of Russia that they espouse: with Sputnik V Russia is seen is technologically advanced, humanitarian-minded, and even profitable rather than backward, aggressive, and impoverished.  US attempts to prevent Brazil, one of the countries most affected by COVID-19, from acquiring Sputnik V prove his point, but also reveal that political concerns can trump humanitarian ones.  

 

ARMENIA

 

Building railroads and roads will be “mutually beneficial” for Armenia and Azerbaijan, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said on March 20th during a visit to the country’s western Aragatsotn Province, as he attempted to ease concerns about the development of such infrastructure projects.

Addressing supporters in the village of Nerkin Bazmaberd, Pashinian noted that one of the provisions of the trilateral statement signed by the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia ending last year’s war in Nagorno-Karabakh calls for the unblocking of economic and transport links in the region.

This includes the construction of new roads and railroads linking the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakxchivan with mainland Azerbaijan via Armenian territory.

A trilateral working group led by the deputy prime ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia was formed in February to work on details of the projects.

Pashinian’s statement came two days after he announced early parliamentary elections in June. During the rally, Pashinian did not conceal that his political team will seek a fresh mandate from the people to be able to form a government again. He said, however, that he and his team were ready to accept any outcome of the elections. Pashinian since then confirmed that he would formally resign in April but remain as interim PM until the elections. 

 Pashinian and his government have come under fire from various opposition parties and groups over the Armenian defeat in last year’s war in Nagorno-Karabakh. They have demanded Pashinian’s resignation since the Russian-brokered cease-fire was signed on November 10th, ending six weeks of hostilities in which thousands of soldiers were killed.


BULGARIA

Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov has called on Russia to stop spying on his country, a day after authorities in the NATO member country busted an espionage group passing military secrets to Russia.

Prosecutors on March 19th  charged six people, including former and current military intelligence officers, of passing classified information about Bulgaria, NATO, and the EU to the Russian Embassy in Sofia.

Since October 2019, the EU and NATO member state has expelled five diplomats and employees of the Russian Embassy accused of conducting intelligence work.

"Once again it could be necessary to declare Russian diplomats as unwanted. With yesterday's operation, I appeal again to their leaders to stop spying in Bulgaria," Borisov said.

"Friendship is friendship, but our Euro-Atlantic partnership is an unavoidable factor," he added.

The Russian embassy denied the spying allegations, saying it was part of "incessant attempts to drive a wedge in the Russian-Bulgarian dialogue and once again demonize our country."

Bulgaria has close cultural, historical, and economic ties with Russia, the country's main energy partner.

 

MOLDOVA

Moldovan President Maia Sandu revelaled that her country has received a shipment of 15.000 Astra-Zeneca COVID-19 vaccines under the global COVAX scheme for poorer countries, a first for Europe.

The pro-Western president thanked Germany and other EU member states, as well as the United States, Britain, Canada, Japan, and the European Commission for showing “solidarity.”

The World Health Organization said the country had secured enough doses of vaccines through COVAX to cover about 1.7 million people, roughly half of its population.

Moldova has struggled in the global scramble to gain access to vaccines and welcomed donations.

The Moldovan drug regulator last month registered three vaccines -- Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and the Russian-made Sputnik V -- for use in Moldova.

 

BELARUS

Alexander Lukashenko used a televised appearance on March 19th to say that two former Belarusian government ministers currently under Western sanctions would be "strong candidates" who could succeed him after a possible presidential election.

Lukashenko, whose legitimacy is not recognized by many Western governments since a disputed presidential election in August 2020 that sparked unprecedented and ongoing protests, has refused to meet with opposition leaders to discuss their demands for his exit and a fresh election.

Amid a brutal crackdown that has included tens of thousands of detentions, opposition leaders have accused Lukashenko of dangling possible reforms and a new election simply to buy himself time as he seeks to complete a sixth term.

It was unclear how serious Lukashenko was in his televised address when he held up former Interior Minister Yury Karayeu and former Health Minister Uladzimir Karanik as would-be candidates.

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 THE AUTHORS


Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe.  Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, has become a textbook on relations of media and society.

During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.

Gilles Breton also currently serves as Chairman of the National Board of the Canada-Eurasia-Russia Business Association. The views expressed in this newsletter exclusively reflect the opinion of the authors.