THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER
DÉJA VU IN AFGHANISTAN
Thirty-two
years ago, the Soviet Army left Afghanistan in a clear admission that a war
which lasted for 10 years and claimed one million Afghan and 15,000 Soviet
lives could not be won. Many historians claim that the Afghan debacle
accelerated the collapse of the USSR (the country ceased to exist two years
after its military left Afghanistan). The brutal war gave rise to the Islamic
awakening in the country where Islam historically lacked a fundamentalist edge.
Ironically it was the US that backed militarily and financially all forms of
radical Muslim and Jihadi groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Thousands of Arab
fighters, including Bin Laden, flooded Afghanistan to fight "the godless
communists". "God is on your side" were the famous words of apprentice-sorcerer
Zbigniew Brzezinski, Jimmy Carter's National Security Advisor on his visit to the
Khyber refugee camp at the Afghan-Pakistan border in February 1980. This gave
rise to the Taliban, one of the most radical and effective terrorist entities
in the world.
God, in his
mysterious ways, was truly on the side of the anti-Soviet coalition. It
eventually not only defeated the Soviets but turned the mountainous, relatively
poor country into one big narco-state and terrorist enclave from where Al-Qaeda
went on to attack the US. Today the Taliban is back. However, the situation is
slightly ironic. The Americans are leaving after 20 years in the country, the
longest war in American history. The Russians are gloating because deep down nothing
pleases the Russians more than an American failure.
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| Taliban delegation at Moscow Press Conference, July 8th ©RFE/RL |
On July 23rd
Russia’s top diplomat commended the Taliban for being “of sound mind” and
criticized the Afghan government for stalling power-sharing talks. Foreign
Minister Lavrov became the latest Russian political figure to praise the
militant group, with the Kremlin calling it a “powerful force” and Russia's
envoy for Afghanistan calling its rapid takeover of border areas “positive” for
regional security.
Lavrov also
said the Taliban delegation promised during its recent Moscow visit not to
threaten neighboring ex-Soviet Central Asian states and to fight the Islamic
State. He added it has also expressed readiness to discuss Afghanistan’s
political structure with other stakeholders “despite accusations that they want
to create an Islamic emirate based on Sharia law.”
“The
statement I am talking about sends a very important signal that the Taliban are
sane people,” Lavrov further commented.
However, on
July 24th the “sane people” beheaded their first translator, an
Afghan man who worked for the US Army. Everybody who knows Taliban and their
country, anyone who followed radical Islam's blood fest around the world of the
last several decades (including Europe, Asia and Africa) knows: the genocidal
atrocities are just around the corner.
The
Russians are not naive. Surely, they are happy that Americans have failed.
However, the Kremlin still keeps the Taliban on the list of terrorist groups
and the Russians know what a serious threat Islamists pose to the security of
Central Asian client states. That is why Russia also promised to activate its
troops and offer any conceivable help to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and
Turkmenistan in case Taliban resurgence will spill over the borders into the
Russian zone of influence.
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| Afghanistan President Ghani, Uzbekistan President Mirziyoyev |
The situation may still be different this time around. Pakistan remains the strongest foreign supporter of the Taliban, but its relations with the various states of the region have evolved. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, secular states where Muslims are a majority, can exert a much greater influence in the region. The recent simultaneous visit to Toshkent of Pakistan PM Imran Khan and Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani gave rise to the expected initial clash. More relevant though was the fact that when they eventually sat down for a bilateral meeting Lieutenant-General Faiz Hameed, Director General of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was in attendance. ISI has long been regarded as the most effective supporter of the Taliban.
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| PM of Pakistan Imran Khan, President Mirziyoyev |
--o--
IRAQ, AS WELL, SYRIA NEXT?
Following
closely on the decision to leave Afghanistan, the recent announcement that the
US troops in Iraq will withdraw from active combat by the end of 2021 may cause
some US foreign policy observers to wonder who won the 2020 presidential
election, the “America first” guy or the “America is back” one. The rationale advanced by supporters of the
US move is that the current government in Baghdad will be reinforced by the disengagement
of US troops whose presence in Iraq has been criticized by Iran-backed
opposition groups. How the US acquiescing to an Iranian demand cannot be acknowledged
as a clear victory for Iran is somehow puzzling. Yet, this is not to say that
Iran will take over Iraq soon. The lingering memory of the Iran-Iraq war of the
1980s, the inter-ethnic and inter-religious complexities of the situation as
well as the continuing presence of various terrorist entities will most likely keep
Iran and Iraq apart and keep many fires burning.
The next
question though is whether the US will also want to reduce its military
presence next door in Syria as well. It would be a logical next step, but the remaining
terrorist threat may preclude this. The support for a moderate opposition to
the Assad regime may no longer be a significant factor. The necessary support
of Kurdish allies, the opposition to Russian presence, the need to counter Iranian/Hezbollah
influence as well as the need to agree common objectives with NATO ally Turkey would
seem to create pre-conditions that will preclude an early move for now.
--o--
CULMINATION OF DRAMA
The completion of the great Cheops pyramid in ancient Egypt was dubbed by archeologists as the first political-industrial drama in known history. The completion of Nord Stream 2 falls in the same category. The recent agreement reached between President Biden and Chancellor Merkel took away the last obstacles in the final stage of the ten year-long construction. Germany's assertion that Nord Stream 2 is just a commercial project has finally prevailed over both Trump and Biden's allegations that it is mainly a political undertaking by Moscow to make Europe totally dependent on the Russian energy supply. It is also most often overlooked that prior to Nord Stream 1 and 2 the system carrying Russian gas to Western Europe was built during Soviet times. It needed major upkeep. The choice was between repairing the Soviet-built system on land on foreign territory or turning to state-of-the art German technology to be deployed in international waters, an altogether easy call.
Trump’s
objection to Nord Stream 2 owed a great deal to the idea that the US could
replace Russia as a supplier of natural gas, even if at a greater cost. Biden as
the advocate of green energies could not entertain the same interest.
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| Pipeline Inspection Gauge used to detect even the smallest changes in the lines ©Nord Strem 2 |
What about
the Ukrainian transit line that up to now was the main artery for the Russian
gas deliveries to Europe? The answer to this question is at the centre of the
political intrigue that came about as the result of the Washington meeting
between Biden and Merkel. Formally the German Chancellor has accepted Biden's
insistence on the continuing guarantees obliging Moscow to continue its
Ukrainian transit at least at the current level-55 million cubic meters
annually. In reality, and Ukraine understands it clearly, Moscow will bring
some additional conditions for prolonging the use of the Ukrainian transit line
in the future. As noted above, it is well known that the technological state of
the Ukrainian gas transit system run by the Naftogas state company is rather
outdated. There is an urgent need for massive investment to upgrade the system.
Up to now there are no investment proposals from Europe. Moscow having no vital
economic interest to protect anymore in the use of the old pipeline, it is up
to Kyiv to come up with an attractive proposal.
--o--
UKRAINE, WHERE ARE YOUR FRIENDS?
To
President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian political class, the confirmation that
Nord Steam 2 will be completed is bad news, well beyond the availability of a
new alternate option for the transportation of Russian natural gas to Western
Europe. As with recent moves by Western European leaders to re-engage with
Russia, there are accusations of betrayal of Ukrainian interests. The fact that
the betrayal was consummated through a US-German arrangement makes it even more
politically significant and painful. The attenuating measures that were
included in the US-German deal, such as eventual new sanctions against Russia
should it not behave, cover the gas transit issue and sound as wishful
thinking. They are another consolation prize and convey a relatively weak
message.
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| Chancellor Merkel, President Biden, Washington, July 15th |
To
Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian political class, Ukraine is at war with Russia.
Zelenskky has repeatedly made the point lately. To a large extent, opposition to Nord Stream 2 has been the economic embodiment of that state of war. By putting an end to its long-lasting
opposition to Nord Stream 2, the US not only acknowledges it has lost that
particular battle, but it also sends a message as to how far it will go in
supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. It does not help of course, as
we have noted before, that Ukraine still has an active trade relationship with
Russia and that Ukraine ‘s desire to transport Russian natural gas is
inconsistent with its professed desire to lessen its dependence on Russia.
The Nord
Stream developments happen a few weeks after it has been made abundantly clear
that NATO is not yet ready to receive Ukraine. If the state of war does not
justify blocking Nord Stream 2 or opening the door to NATO, there may be
something to be said about joining others in seeking something from the EU, in the
very words of Zelenskyy: “If the EU does not show iron support for the European
aspirations of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, someone will show iron muscles
near our borders”.
If Ukraine
is not ready to join NATO on account of the work that needs to be done to weed
out corruption, it is difficult to imagine what appetite the EU would have for
greater economic integration with two of the poorest countries in Europe,
Moldova and Ukraine being at the bottom of the list in terms of GDP per capita.
In some ways, by opening its door to Ukrainian workers, the EU already makes a
significant contribution to the Ukrainian economy by keeping the flow of
remittances going back to Ukraine.
With the
doors to NATO and the EU clubs remaining closed, Ukraine seems to have come up
with the idea of creating its own “new Europe” club with Poland and the Baltic
states. Others have even seriously suggested Ukraine turning to Canada as an
alternate unconditional supporter. What can be achieved through these processes
would appear rather limited.
It would
seem Ukraine has little more to expect from the US. Zelenskyy’s trip to
Washington, originally scheduled for mid-July has now been confirmed for late
August, at a time when the US Congress is in recess. Preventing Zelenskyy from
too much interaction with a Congress that has more sympathy for Ukraine than
the President may be cynical, but it is not an unusual part of managing expectations
within a bilateral relationship.
To spin a
more positive story over recent events, Zelenskyy has fallen back on putting
the responsibility for everything first on Russia and accessorily on Ukraine’s European
and American supporters, as if nothing had happened.
In all of
this, Russia is playing the long game. President Putin just published an
article in Russian and Ukrainian about the historic unity of the Ukrainian and
Russian people. The choice of topic is highly controversial and the likelihood
of changing the views of anyone rather unlikely. Coming at a time when many
Ukrainians feel they have been let down by their European and American
supporters, it may nevertheless get more attention than would have otherwise
been the case.
--o--
UNEASY TRIANGLE
On her way
from Beijing veteran diplomat Wendy Sherman, US deputy state secretary, stopped
in Geneva where she met with Russian deputy foreign minister Ryabkov. The
official topic of discussion was to work out the main strategic lines of
cooperation for the next 10 years. De facto the discussion started with
stunning news brought by Sherman from China: Chinese leaders announced that
they will increase by four times the number of ICBMs with a 14,000 km range.
When the US representative noted that such a decision could significantly offset
strategic nuclear balance in the region, the answer was firm: China will not be
a part of a negotiated agreement with other powers on strategic armament
issues.
This
allowed some observers to conclude that one of the main aspects of the Geneva talks
was to work out a Russian-US joint stand on China's military build up. It is
also certain that the conference in Geneva will start a long preparatory work
to create a chain of limited agreements covering the broad aspects of the
balance between NATO and Russia in the military sphere. A group of Republican
senators already issued a statement accusing President Biden of being too
conciliatory with Russia without paying attention to China.
--o--
A NEW LOOK AT THE OLD SECRET: ISRAELI NUCLEAR ARSENAL
A recently discovered
e-mail dating back to 2016 from former Secretary of State Colin Powell asserted
that Israel possessed 200 nuclear warheads. It is now being corrected by several
experts. The more precise number stands at 80. This arsenal is small (compared
to that of France, the UK and China) but it is a potent threat and an ultimate
insurance policy for a small state with several bitter enemies who possess and
are developing a wide range of weapons.
Israeli
so-called 'nuclear ambiguity' has an interesting history as it was not solely an
Israeli invention. Initially France supplied Israel a large, heavy water
nuclear reactor (in the late 1950's) and an underground plutonium reprocessing
plant, which would turn spent reactor fuel into the key ingredient for nuclear
weapons. The reactor was built at Dimona in the Negev desert.
By the late
1960s the United States assessed Israeli nukes as “probable,” and U.S. efforts
to slow the nuclear program and get Israel to join the Nuclear Non-proliferation
Treaty failed. In 1969 President Nixon and Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir
reportedly reached a secret agreement that the US would cease its demand for
inspections and Israeli compliance with antiproliferation efforts, and in
return Israel would not declare or test its nuclear weapons. That deal was
possibly violated by Israel in 1979 in what is known as the "Vela
Incident", a mysterious nuclear explosion off the coast of South Africa.
It is almost certain that Israel was behind it.
It is
assumed that Israel had a crude nuclear device (or several) during the 1973 war
against Syria and Egypt and was close to using it against Egyptian forces, but
the tide of war turned, and Israel managed to regain the advantage by
conventional means.
When the
mass immigration of Soviet Jews into Israel began in the late 1980's with them
came hundreds of nuclear scientists and engineers who had an expertise of
working for the major nuclear superpower. At this point Israel managed to make
serious breakthroughs in the miniaturization of warheads and assembly of a
potent arsenal of ICBMs. Currently the Israeli ICBM Jericho-3, according to the
American intelligence, has a range of 7,500 km with a 500 kg warhead. Israel
has about 2 dozen such missiles. It has not been proven, but not out of the
question, that Israel has an ability to deliver nuclear weapons by means of
submarine-based nuclear tipped cruise missiles and maintains a squadron of
F-15's and F-16's specially designed to carry tactical nuclear weapons. This
old-fashioned way of delivery has one advantage: the plane, unlike an ICBM, can
be recalled.
A lot about
the Israeli nuclear arsenal is shrouded in secrecy, especially the number of
warheads and the range of its ICBMs but there is very little doubt that Israel
is in possession of a small but robust nuclear arsenal with a long reach.
--o--
R USSIAN
POLITICS, RANDOM OBSERVATIONS
Foreign
observers have been puzzled by the Russian population’s reluctance to get
vaccinated. Only a quarter of the population has shown interest so far. Soviet and Russian traditions would have seemed to suggest that the
population would welcome vaccination. It turns out that many people simply do
not trust what they perceive as hastily created vaccines. This is a serious problem
for the health authorities. An even greater long-term problem for political
authorities is that people get their information and give their trust to
information that is carried by social network not by the state-controlled
media. This tendency could change other things down the road.
Foreign Russia-based media have in recent months reported on the crackdown against non-systemic political opposition in the lead-up to the September parliamentary elections. Some have observed that the crackdown seems to target the individuals and groups associated with foreign entities. In Russia itself, this not so unpopular. Other seasoned observers of Russian political life, such as the experts at the Carnegie Foundation in Moscow, have focused on the fact that the Putin-backed United Russia party is presenting a slate of establishment candidates and older individuals (Defense Minister Shoigu, Foreign Minister Lavrov). This is to suggest that candidates that may have been associated with the post-Putin transition were excluded. Putin not wanting ever to look like a lame duck made him chose old-timers rather than candidates with a future. This is not necessarily the best vote-getting strategy.
The managed
democracy system that Putin installed on the basis established by Yeltsin
suffered its only real setback in December 2011 when the Putin-backed party
failed to obtain more than 50% of the popular vote, immediately after Putin
announced he would run for the presidency himself rather than then President Medvedev.
The pandemic conditions as well as the decision by Putin to keep the door open
for him to be President until 2036 can create enough dissatisfaction to cause
electors to think twice before casting their ballot. Putin might easily get
elected as President any time. Parliamentary elections are a different game. There
have also been incremental improvements in the conduct and observation of
elections since 2011. We are not predicting a defeat for United Russia, but simply
saying that an overwhelming victory is not a foregone conclusion, especially if
social networks continue to increase their influence and perhaps even more
important if the liberal elements of the opposition can finally agree to work
together and with other opposition parties.
--o--
PERSON OF THE MONTH: THOMAS BACH
International
Olympic Committee (IOC) President Thomas Bach has taken his organisation
through another one of the demanding periods of its history. He can take some
credit for the very fact that the summer games are currently taking place in
Tokyo despite the prevailing pandemic conditions. His long opening session
message of peace and solidarity was uplifting and more explicitly political
than could normally have been expected from a sports bureaucrat.
There has been
considerable criticism over the years of the IOC, its presidents, its modus
operandi, the rising costs of hosting the games, as well as the various
scandals that have affected its members (including their insistence on super
VIP treatment). For its oligarchic structure, the IOC was compared over time to
the Roman Curia and the Communist Party Politburo. Thomas Bach himself was not
spared criticism during his tenure that began in 2013.
What
distinguishes Thomas Back from his predecessor though is that he himself was an
athlete and an Olympic participant: as a young fencer he won Olympic gold in
Montréal in 1976. The interest of the athletes has been his primary
preoccupation.
Defending
the athletes and the possibility for all to participate is precisely what
triggered the largest amount of criticism against Bach. For many, the
resolution of the Russian doping scandal was a cop-out, the punishment too
moderate. Russian athletes can no longer participate under the Russian flag,
but they can still compete under the cover of the Russian Olympic Committee
(ROC). Russian media coverage of the ROC team happily glosses over the
distinction. As the IOC was dealing with the prospect of fewer countries
wanting to host the Olympic games, Bach was also accused of disregarding
China’s human rights record. The 2022 Winter Olympics will he held in Beijing.
After that France, Italy and the US will take their turn in hosting the Olympic
event.
Despite all
the criticism, the Olympic games remain one of the most widely covered international
event and one that carries an underlying message of worldwide peaceful
coexistence and competition. Thomas Bach is playing a key role in keeping the
Olympic flame burning.
--o--
BRIEFLY NOTED
TAJIKISTAN
Tajikistan
says it has put its entire armed forces on high alert for a combat-readiness
check and relocated thousands of troops to the border with Afghanistan amid
increasing security concerns in Central Asia over the Taliban's territorial
gains in the northern part of the war-torn country. Tajikistan has mobilized
100,000 active servicemen, 130,000 reserve officers and soldiers, as well as
law enforcement agencies for an exercise on July 22nd on the orders of
President Emomali Rahmon, in the biggest such exercise in the 30-year history
of independent Tajikistan.
Amid
concerns that the Afghan government may collapse in the face of the rapid
withdrawal of foreign forces and the Taliban's battlefield successes, Russia
has announced joint military maneuvers with Uzbekistan from July 30 to August
10. Moscow, which operates a military base in Tajikistan, also plans to hold
joint drills there with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in August.
BELARUS
A Russian
court has ruled world champion kickboxer Alyaksey Kudzin can be extradited to
his homeland, Belarus, despite concerns the athlete may be politically
persecuted and tortured. The decision by a Moscow appeals court on July 21 came
despite an earlier European Court of Human Rights opinion that banned his
extradition. Kudzin, a mixed-martial-arts fighter, is wanted in Belarus on
charges of assaulting a security officer during pro-democracy protests against strongman Alexander Lukashenko after a disputed election in August 2020. If
convicted, he faces up to five years in prison.
The
athlete, who has made sharp statements about Belarusian security forces and the
government on social media, may face "torture, repression, and even
death" if extradited to Belarus, the Belarusian Sports Solidarity Fund has
said.
MOLDOVA
Pro-Western
President Maia Sandu's party has scored a clear victory in Moldovan snap
parliamentary elections, a result likely to weaken Russia's influence in the
country. With nearly all ballots counted from the July 11th elections, Sandu's
center-right Action and Solidarity (PAS) had just under 53 percent of the vote,
while its main rival, former President Igor Dodon's Moscow-friendly Socialists
and Communists (BECS) bloc, had a little more than 27 percent. The election
commission chief said no serious violations were reported during the July 11
vote. But Dodon told reporters that he would "decide whether to protest
the election results" after investigating possible violations.
ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN
Azerbaijani
and Armenian forces exchanged fire for several hours on July 19th along a section of their
border as tensions continue to simmer between the two countries after last
year's war over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh. Around 6,000 lives were lost in
the war that was decisively won by Azerbaijan which managed to return large
parts of its territories lost to Armenia in the early 1990's
The defense
ministries of both countries accused the other side of provoking the July 19th flare-up along Armenia’s Yeraskh section of the border with
Azerbaijan's Nakxchivan exclave, which is sandwiched between Armenia and Iran.
Both Yerevan and Baku said that the situation at the border was calm on the
morning of July 20th.
There were
no initial reports of casualties on either side. The skirmish came five days
after another shoot-out along the same section of the border left one Armenian
soldier dead and at least one Azerbaijani soldier wounded.
GEORGIA
Georgian Prime
Minister Irakli Gharibashvili's mid-July actions surrounding a cancelled LGBT pride
march and mob attacks on journalists covering it sparked a week of public
protests and calls for his resignation.
The
violence further shrouded Tbilisi as mourners honored 36-year-old Lekso
Lashkarava, who was severely beaten and died days after suffering head injuries
by anti-LGBT activists and supporting mobs. The event was cancelled due to
threats of violence by right-wing groups. The mayhem is another disturbing
chapter in a long-running dispute between Georgian activists seeking public
acknowledgement of the plight of sexual and other minorities in the face of
stubborn resistance from religious and other ultraconservative elements.
UKRAINE
The sudden
resignation of Ukrainian political heavyweight Arsen Avakov from the post of Interior
minister could open the door for President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to concentrate
more power in his hands as he seeks to take on entrenched interests and advance
a reform agenda. Avakov quietly resigned on July 13th without offering a reason
for his sudden departure. This could only mean that Zelenskiy reached a
back-door agreement with the influential minister to step down after seven
years in office. The 57-year-old Avakov is considered by many to be one of the
most powerful people in the country after Zelenskiy and his chief of staff,
Andriy Yermak. He oversaw about 300,000 law enforcement officials and a
significant share of Ukraine's annual budget expenditures.
This
development means that Zelensky in earnest began to consolidate power and is
ready to promote his own people. This
follows Zelensky's removal of the head of the constitutional court and
crackdown on several business tycoons.
RUSSIA
A
court-ordered psychiatric examination concluded that Ilnaz Galyaviyev, a
teenager who attacked a school in Russia's Republic of Tatarstan in May,
killing nine people, is mentally ill. The evaluation was conducted by
Moscow-based Serbsky medical center and had stated that 19-year-old Ilnaz
Galyaviyev "was insane at the moment of the mass killings." The more
detailed evaluation would be released and presented to the court on a later
date.
Galyaviyev
was arrested after he set off an explosion and opened fire at a school in
Tatarstan’s capital, Kazan, 700 kilometers east of Moscow, on May 11, killing
four boys, three girls -- all eighth graders -- and two teachers. Twenty-three
people, mainly children, were injured in the attack, which shocked the republic
and the entire country.
