Friday, July 30, 2021

Issue 55

THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER

DÉJA VU IN AFGHANISTAN

Thirty-two years ago, the Soviet Army left Afghanistan in a clear admission that a war which lasted for 10 years and claimed one million Afghan and 15,000 Soviet lives could not be won. Many historians claim that the Afghan debacle accelerated the collapse of the USSR (the country ceased to exist two years after its military left Afghanistan). The brutal war gave rise to the Islamic awakening in the country where Islam historically lacked a fundamentalist edge. Ironically it was the US that backed militarily and financially all forms of radical Muslim and Jihadi groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Thousands of Arab fighters, including Bin Laden, flooded Afghanistan to fight "the godless communists". "God is on your side" were the famous words of apprentice-sorcerer Zbigniew Brzezinski, Jimmy Carter's National Security Advisor on his visit to the Khyber refugee camp at the Afghan-Pakistan border in February 1980. This gave rise to the Taliban, one of the most radical and effective terrorist entities in the world.

God, in his mysterious ways, was truly on the side of the anti-Soviet coalition. It eventually not only defeated the Soviets but turned the mountainous, relatively poor country into one big narco-state and terrorist enclave from where Al-Qaeda went on to attack the US. Today the Taliban is back. However, the situation is slightly ironic. The Americans are leaving after 20 years in the country, the longest war in American history. The Russians are gloating because deep down nothing pleases the Russians more than an American failure.

Taliban delegation at Moscow Press Conference, July 8th
©RFE/RL


On July 23rd Russia’s top diplomat commended the Taliban for being “of sound mind” and criticized the Afghan government for stalling power-sharing talks. Foreign Minister Lavrov became the latest Russian political figure to praise the militant group, with the Kremlin calling it a “powerful force” and Russia's envoy for Afghanistan calling its rapid takeover of border areas “positive” for regional security.

Lavrov also said the Taliban delegation promised during its recent Moscow visit not to threaten neighboring ex-Soviet Central Asian states and to fight the Islamic State. He added it has also expressed readiness to discuss Afghanistan’s political structure with other stakeholders “despite accusations that they want to create an Islamic emirate based on Sharia law.”

“The statement I am talking about sends a very important signal that the Taliban are sane people,” Lavrov further commented.

However, on July 24th the “sane people” beheaded their first translator, an Afghan man who worked for the US Army. Everybody who knows Taliban and their country, anyone who followed radical Islam's blood fest around the world of the last several decades (including Europe, Asia and Africa) knows: the genocidal atrocities are just around the corner.

The Russians are not naive. Surely, they are happy that Americans have failed. However, the Kremlin still keeps the Taliban on the list of terrorist groups and the Russians know what a serious threat Islamists pose to the security of Central Asian client states. That is why Russia also promised to activate its troops and offer any conceivable help to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in case Taliban resurgence will spill over the borders into the Russian zone of influence. 

Afghanistan President Ghani, Uzbekistan President Mirziyoyev


The situation may still be different this time around. Pakistan remains the strongest foreign supporter of the Taliban, but its relations with the various states of the region have evolved. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, secular states where Muslims are a majority, can exert a much greater influence in the region. The recent simultaneous visit to Toshkent of Pakistan PM Imran Khan and Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani gave rise to the expected initial clash. More relevant though was the fact that when they eventually sat down for a bilateral meeting Lieutenant-General Faiz Hameed, Director General of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was in attendance.  ISI has long been regarded as the most effective supporter of the Taliban.

PM of Pakistan Imran Khan, President Mirziyoyev


--o--

IRAQ, AS WELL, SYRIA NEXT?

Following closely on the decision to leave Afghanistan, the recent announcement that the US troops in Iraq will withdraw from active combat by the end of 2021 may cause some US foreign policy observers to wonder who won the 2020 presidential election, the “America first” guy or the “America is back” one.  The rationale advanced by supporters of the US move is that the current government in Baghdad will be reinforced by the disengagement of US troops whose presence in Iraq has been criticized by Iran-backed opposition groups. How the US acquiescing to an Iranian demand cannot be acknowledged as a clear victory for Iran is somehow puzzling. Yet, this is not to say that Iran will take over Iraq soon. The lingering memory of the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, the inter-ethnic and inter-religious complexities of the situation as well as the continuing presence of various terrorist entities will most likely keep Iran and Iraq apart and keep many fires burning.

The next question though is whether the US will also want to reduce its military presence next door in Syria as well. It would be a logical next step, but the remaining terrorist threat may preclude this. The support for a moderate opposition to the Assad regime may no longer be a significant factor. The necessary support of Kurdish allies, the opposition to Russian presence, the need to counter Iranian/Hezbollah influence as well as the need to agree common objectives with NATO ally Turkey would seem to create pre-conditions that will preclude an early move for now.

--o--

CULMINATION OF DRAMA

The completion of the great Cheops pyramid in ancient Egypt was dubbed by archeologists as the first political-industrial drama in known history. The completion of Nord Stream 2 falls in the same category. The recent agreement reached between President Biden and Chancellor Merkel took away the last obstacles in the final stage of the ten year-long construction. Germany's assertion that Nord Stream 2 is just a commercial project has finally prevailed over both Trump and Biden's allegations that it is mainly a political undertaking by Moscow to make Europe totally dependent on the Russian energy supply. It is also most often overlooked that prior to Nord Stream 1 and 2 the system carrying Russian gas to Western Europe was built during Soviet times. It needed major upkeep. The choice was between repairing the Soviet-built system on land on foreign territory or turning to state-of-the art German technology to be deployed in international waters, an altogether easy call. 

Trump’s objection to Nord Stream 2 owed a great deal to the idea that the US could replace Russia as a supplier of natural gas, even if at a greater cost. Biden as the advocate of green energies could not entertain the same interest.  In many ways the decision to let Nord Stream 2 happen apart from being a personal victory for Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin was a logical consequence of the Biden-Putin meeting on July 16th. From now on Europe will satisfy 75% of its natural gas consumption from Russian supply

Pipeline Inspection Gauge used to detect even the smallest changes in the lines
©Nord Strem 2


What about the Ukrainian transit line that up to now was the main artery for the Russian gas deliveries to Europe? The answer to this question is at the centre of the political intrigue that came about as the result of the Washington meeting between Biden and Merkel. Formally the German Chancellor has accepted Biden's insistence on the continuing guarantees obliging Moscow to continue its Ukrainian transit at least at the current level-55 million cubic meters annually. In reality, and Ukraine understands it clearly, Moscow will bring some additional conditions for prolonging the use of the Ukrainian transit line in the future. As noted above, it is well known that the technological state of the Ukrainian gas transit system run by the Naftogas state company is rather outdated. There is an urgent need for massive investment to upgrade the system. Up to now there are no investment proposals from Europe. Moscow having no vital economic interest to protect anymore in the use of the old pipeline, it is up to Kyiv to come up with an attractive proposal.

--o--

UKRAINE, WHERE ARE YOUR FRIENDS?

To President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian political class, the confirmation that Nord Steam 2 will be completed is bad news, well beyond the availability of a new alternate option for the transportation of Russian natural gas to Western Europe. As with recent moves by Western European leaders to re-engage with Russia, there are accusations of betrayal of Ukrainian interests. The fact that the betrayal was consummated through a US-German arrangement makes it even more politically significant and painful. The attenuating measures that were included in the US-German deal, such as eventual new sanctions against Russia should it not behave, cover the gas transit issue and sound as wishful thinking. They are another consolation prize and convey a relatively weak message.

Chancellor Merkel, President Biden, Washington, July 15th


To Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian political class, Ukraine is at war with Russia. Zelenskky has repeatedly made the point lately. To a large extent, opposition to Nord Stream 2 has been the economic embodiment of that state of war.  By putting an end to its long-lasting opposition to Nord Stream 2, the US not only acknowledges it has lost that particular battle, but it also sends a message as to how far it will go in supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. It does not help of course, as we have noted before, that Ukraine still has an active trade relationship with Russia and that Ukraine ‘s desire to transport Russian natural gas is inconsistent with its professed desire to lessen its dependence on Russia. 

The Nord Stream developments happen a few weeks after it has been made abundantly clear that NATO is not yet ready to receive Ukraine. If the state of war does not justify blocking Nord Stream 2 or opening the door to NATO, there may be something to be said about joining others in seeking something from the EU, in the very words of Zelenskyy: “If the EU does not show iron support for the European aspirations of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, someone will show iron muscles near our borders”.

If Ukraine is not ready to join NATO on account of the work that needs to be done to weed out corruption, it is difficult to imagine what appetite the EU would have for greater economic integration with two of the poorest countries in Europe, Moldova and Ukraine being at the bottom of the list in terms of GDP per capita. In some ways, by opening its door to Ukrainian workers, the EU already makes a significant contribution to the Ukrainian economy by keeping the flow of remittances going back to Ukraine.

With the doors to NATO and the EU clubs remaining closed, Ukraine seems to have come up with the idea of creating its own “new Europe” club with Poland and the Baltic states. Others have even seriously suggested Ukraine turning to Canada as an alternate unconditional supporter. What can be achieved through these processes would appear rather limited.

It would seem Ukraine has little more to expect from the US. Zelenskyy’s trip to Washington, originally scheduled for mid-July has now been confirmed for late August, at a time when the US Congress is in recess. Preventing Zelenskyy from too much interaction with a Congress that has more sympathy for Ukraine than the President may be cynical, but it is not an unusual part of managing expectations within a bilateral relationship.  

To spin a more positive story over recent events, Zelenskyy has fallen back on putting the responsibility for everything first on Russia and accessorily on Ukraine’s European and American supporters, as if nothing had happened.

In all of this, Russia is playing the long game. President Putin just published an article in Russian and Ukrainian about the historic unity of the Ukrainian and Russian people. The choice of topic is highly controversial and the likelihood of changing the views of anyone rather unlikely. Coming at a time when many Ukrainians feel they have been let down by their European and American supporters, it may nevertheless get more attention than would have otherwise been the case.

--o--

UNEASY TRIANGLE

On her way from Beijing veteran diplomat Wendy Sherman, US deputy state secretary, stopped in Geneva where she met with Russian deputy foreign minister Ryabkov. The official topic of discussion was to work out the main strategic lines of cooperation for the next 10 years. De facto the discussion started with stunning news brought by Sherman from China: Chinese leaders announced that they will increase by four times the number of ICBMs with a 14,000 km range. When the US representative noted that such a decision could significantly offset strategic nuclear balance in the region, the answer was firm: China will not be a part of a negotiated agreement with other powers on strategic armament issues.

This allowed some observers to conclude that one of the main aspects of the Geneva talks was to work out a Russian-US joint stand on China's military build up. It is also certain that the conference in Geneva will start a long preparatory work to create a chain of limited agreements covering the broad aspects of the balance between NATO and Russia in the military sphere. A group of Republican senators already issued a statement accusing President Biden of being too conciliatory with Russia without paying attention to China. 

--o--

A NEW LOOK AT THE OLD SECRET: ISRAELI NUCLEAR ARSENAL

A recently discovered e-mail dating back to 2016 from former Secretary of State Colin Powell asserted that Israel possessed 200 nuclear warheads. It is now being corrected by several experts. The more precise number stands at 80. This arsenal is small (compared to that of France, the UK and China) but it is a potent threat and an ultimate insurance policy for a small state with several bitter enemies who possess and are developing a wide range of weapons.

Israeli so-called 'nuclear ambiguity' has an interesting history as it was not solely an Israeli invention. Initially France supplied Israel a large, heavy water nuclear reactor (in the late 1950's) and an underground plutonium reprocessing plant, which would turn spent reactor fuel into the key ingredient for nuclear weapons. The reactor was built at Dimona in the Negev desert.



By the late 1960s the United States assessed Israeli nukes as “probable,” and U.S. efforts to slow the nuclear program and get Israel to join the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty failed. In 1969 President Nixon and Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir reportedly reached a secret agreement that the US would cease its demand for inspections and Israeli compliance with antiproliferation efforts, and in return Israel would not declare or test its nuclear weapons. That deal was possibly violated by Israel in 1979 in what is known as the "Vela Incident", a mysterious nuclear explosion off the coast of South Africa. It is almost certain that Israel was behind it.

It is assumed that Israel had a crude nuclear device (or several) during the 1973 war against Syria and Egypt and was close to using it against Egyptian forces, but the tide of war turned, and Israel managed to regain the advantage by conventional means.

When the mass immigration of Soviet Jews into Israel began in the late 1980's with them came hundreds of nuclear scientists and engineers who had an expertise of working for the major nuclear superpower. At this point Israel managed to make serious breakthroughs in the miniaturization of warheads and assembly of a potent arsenal of ICBMs. Currently the Israeli ICBM Jericho-3, according to the American intelligence, has a range of 7,500 km with a 500 kg warhead. Israel has about 2 dozen such missiles. It has not been proven, but not out of the question, that Israel has an ability to deliver nuclear weapons by means of submarine-based nuclear tipped cruise missiles and maintains a squadron of F-15's and F-16's specially designed to carry tactical nuclear weapons. This old-fashioned way of delivery has one advantage: the plane, unlike an ICBM, can be recalled.

A lot about the Israeli nuclear arsenal is shrouded in secrecy, especially the number of warheads and the range of its ICBMs but there is very little doubt that Israel is in possession of a small but robust nuclear arsenal with a long reach.

--o--

RUSSIAN POLITICS, RANDOM OBSERVATIONS

Foreign observers have been puzzled by the Russian population’s reluctance to get vaccinated. Only a quarter of the population has shown interest so far. Soviet and Russian traditions would have seemed to suggest that the population would welcome vaccination. It turns out that many people simply do not trust what they perceive as hastily created vaccines. This is a serious problem for the health authorities. An even greater long-term problem for political authorities is that people get their information and give their trust to information that is carried by social network not by the state-controlled media. This tendency could change other things down the road.

Foreign Russia-based media have in recent months reported on the crackdown against non-systemic political opposition in the lead-up to the September parliamentary elections. Some have observed that the crackdown seems to target the individuals and groups associated with foreign entities. In Russia itself, this not so unpopular. Other seasoned observers of Russian political life, such as the experts at the Carnegie Foundation in Moscow, have focused on the fact that the Putin-backed United Russia party is presenting a slate of establishment candidates and older individuals (Defense Minister Shoigu, Foreign Minister Lavrov). This is to suggest that candidates that may have been associated with the post-Putin transition were excluded. Putin not wanting ever to look like a lame duck made him chose old-timers rather than candidates with a future. This is not necessarily the best vote-getting strategy.

The managed democracy system that Putin installed on the basis established by Yeltsin suffered its only real setback in December 2011 when the Putin-backed party failed to obtain more than 50% of the popular vote, immediately after Putin announced he would run for the presidency himself rather than then President Medvedev. The pandemic conditions as well as the decision by Putin to keep the door open for him to be President until 2036 can create enough dissatisfaction to cause electors to think twice before casting their ballot. Putin might easily get elected as President any time. Parliamentary elections are a different game. There have also been incremental improvements in the conduct and observation of elections since 2011. We are not predicting a defeat for United Russia, but simply saying that an overwhelming victory is not a foregone conclusion, especially if social networks continue to increase their influence and perhaps even more important if the liberal elements of the opposition can finally agree to work together and with other opposition parties.

--o--

PERSON OF THE MONTH: THOMAS BACH




International Olympic Committee (IOC) President Thomas Bach has taken his organisation through another one of the demanding periods of its history. He can take some credit for the very fact that the summer games are currently taking place in Tokyo despite the prevailing pandemic conditions. His long opening session message of peace and solidarity was uplifting and more explicitly political than could normally have been expected from a sports bureaucrat.

There has been considerable criticism over the years of the IOC, its presidents, its modus operandi, the rising costs of hosting the games, as well as the various scandals that have affected its members (including their insistence on super VIP treatment). For its oligarchic structure, the IOC was compared over time to the Roman Curia and the Communist Party Politburo. Thomas Bach himself was not spared criticism during his tenure that began in 2013.

What distinguishes Thomas Back from his predecessor though is that he himself was an athlete and an Olympic participant: as a young fencer he won Olympic gold in Montréal in 1976. The interest of the athletes has been his primary preoccupation.

Defending the athletes and the possibility for all to participate is precisely what triggered the largest amount of criticism against Bach. For many, the resolution of the Russian doping scandal was a cop-out, the punishment too moderate. Russian athletes can no longer participate under the Russian flag, but they can still compete under the cover of the Russian Olympic Committee (ROC). Russian media coverage of the ROC team happily glosses over the distinction. As the IOC was dealing with the prospect of fewer countries wanting to host the Olympic games, Bach was also accused of disregarding China’s human rights record. The 2022 Winter Olympics will he held in Beijing. After that France, Italy and the US will take their turn in hosting the Olympic event.

Despite all the criticism, the Olympic games remain one of the most widely covered international event and one that carries an underlying message of worldwide peaceful coexistence and competition. Thomas Bach is playing a key role in keeping the Olympic flame burning.

--o--

BRIEFLY NOTED

TAJIKISTAN

Tajikistan says it has put its entire armed forces on high alert for a combat-readiness check and relocated thousands of troops to the border with Afghanistan amid increasing security concerns in Central Asia over the Taliban's territorial gains in the northern part of the war-torn country. Tajikistan has mobilized 100,000 active servicemen, 130,000 reserve officers and soldiers, as well as law enforcement agencies for an exercise on July 22nd on the orders of President Emomali Rahmon, in the biggest such exercise in the 30-year history of independent Tajikistan.

Amid concerns that the Afghan government may collapse in the face of the rapid withdrawal of foreign forces and the Taliban's battlefield successes, Russia has announced joint military maneuvers with Uzbekistan from July 30 to August 10. Moscow, which operates a military base in Tajikistan, also plans to hold joint drills there with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in August.


BELARUS

A Russian court has ruled world champion kickboxer Alyaksey Kudzin can be extradited to his homeland, Belarus, despite concerns the athlete may be politically persecuted and tortured. The decision by a Moscow appeals court on July 21 came despite an earlier European Court of Human Rights opinion that banned his extradition. Kudzin, a mixed-martial-arts fighter, is wanted in Belarus on charges of assaulting a security officer during pro-democracy protests against strongman Alexander Lukashenko after a disputed election in August 2020. If convicted, he faces up to five years in prison.

The athlete, who has made sharp statements about Belarusian security forces and the government on social media, may face "torture, repression, and even death" if extradited to Belarus, the Belarusian Sports Solidarity Fund has said.


MOLDOVA

Pro-Western President Maia Sandu's party has scored a clear victory in Moldovan snap parliamentary elections, a result likely to weaken Russia's influence in the country. With nearly all ballots counted from the July 11th elections, Sandu's center-right Action and Solidarity (PAS) had just under 53 percent of the vote, while its main rival, former President Igor Dodon's Moscow-friendly Socialists and Communists (BECS) bloc, had a little more than 27 percent. The election commission chief said no serious violations were reported during the July 11 vote. But Dodon told reporters that he would "decide whether to protest the election results" after investigating possible violations.


ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN

Azerbaijani and Armenian forces exchanged fire for several hours on July 19th along a section of their border as tensions continue to simmer between the two countries after last year's war over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh. Around 6,000 lives were lost in the war that was decisively won by Azerbaijan which managed to return large parts of its territories lost to Armenia in the early 1990's

The defense ministries of both countries accused the other side of provoking the July 19th flare-up along Armenia’s Yeraskh section of the border with Azerbaijan's Nakxchivan exclave, which is sandwiched between Armenia and Iran. Both Yerevan and Baku said that the situation at the border was calm on the morning of July 20th.

There were no initial reports of casualties on either side. The skirmish came five days after another shoot-out along the same section of the border left one Armenian soldier dead and at least one Azerbaijani soldier wounded.


GEORGIA

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili's mid-July actions surrounding a cancelled LGBT pride march and mob attacks on journalists covering it sparked a week of public protests and calls for his resignation.

The violence further shrouded Tbilisi as mourners honored 36-year-old Lekso Lashkarava, who was severely beaten and died days after suffering head injuries by anti-LGBT activists and supporting mobs. The event was cancelled due to threats of violence by right-wing groups. The mayhem is another disturbing chapter in a long-running dispute between Georgian activists seeking public acknowledgement of the plight of sexual and other minorities in the face of stubborn resistance from religious and other ultraconservative elements.


UKRAINE

The sudden resignation of Ukrainian political heavyweight Arsen Avakov from the post of Interior minister could open the door for President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to concentrate more power in his hands as he seeks to take on entrenched interests and advance a reform agenda. Avakov quietly resigned on July 13th without offering a reason for his sudden departure. This could only mean that Zelenskiy reached a back-door agreement with the influential minister to step down after seven years in office. The 57-year-old Avakov is considered by many to be one of the most powerful people in the country after Zelenskiy and his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. He oversaw about 300,000 law enforcement officials and a significant share of Ukraine's annual budget expenditures.

This development means that Zelensky in earnest began to consolidate power and is ready to promote his own people.  This follows Zelensky's removal of the head of the constitutional court and crackdown on several business tycoons.


RUSSIA

A court-ordered psychiatric examination concluded that Ilnaz Galyaviyev, a teenager who attacked a school in Russia's Republic of Tatarstan in May, killing nine people, is mentally ill. The evaluation was conducted by Moscow-based Serbsky medical center and had stated that 19-year-old Ilnaz Galyaviyev "was insane at the moment of the mass killings." The more detailed evaluation would be released and presented to the court on a later date.

Galyaviyev was arrested after he set off an explosion and opened fire at a school in Tatarstan’s capital, Kazan, 700 kilometers east of Moscow, on May 11, killing four boys, three girls -- all eighth graders -- and two teachers. Twenty-three people, mainly children, were injured in the attack, which shocked the republic and the entire country.

 --o--

THE AUTHORS

Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe.  Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, has become a textbook on relations of media and society.

During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.

Gilles Breton also currently serves as Chairman of the National Board of the Canada-Eurasia-Russia Business Association. The views expressed in this newsletter exclusively reflect the opinion of the authors.


 

No comments:

Post a Comment