THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER
NEW ANGLES OF THE OLD TRIANGLE
A long time
ago, Henry Kissinger, who was the only person ever to occupy simultaneously the
positions of Secretary of State and National Security Adviser, formulated the
US approach to Moscow and Beijing at every serious turn of history.
He compared
the relations between the three major powers to a 'golden triangle'. All three
sides of the triangle should never remain fixed, but rather have to reflect the
geopolitical changes.
During the
Cold War the main competition and animosity was taking place between the US and
the USSR. China was then not as prominent within that geometrical construction
or altogether in the world. It was also behind the US and USSR economically and
militarily.
Still, at
that time, Kissinger foresaw that with passing of time relations between
Washington and Beijing could become more important and competitive than even
with Russia.
Now, in
2020, it is clear that Kissinger was correct in his prediction. The idea of
the 'golden triangle' theory was to have a geopolitical flexibility that would
allow to keep in check any sudden ascendance of one of the parties. China has
become not only a mighty competitor, but also a direct threat to America’s leading
role in the world.
Alan Cohen of
Forbes magazine stated in his report to the Atlantic council on May 10th that
the real reason behind Trump's attacks on China with regard to the Covid-19
pandemic should be explained as a search for a pretext to get a bulk of
American companies back from China.
Russia
meanwhile is not willing to be a substitute player in that game. Russian media
commentators usually loyal or neutral about China started to hint at the
increasing behind-the-scenes power struggle within the Chinese Politburo and
highest military circles.
Moscow
expects some benefits from the China-US rift. Things could change if the rift
turns out to be a full-scale economic war between Beijing and Washington. At
the time of a world economic crisis Moscow may look to China as the only
reliable market for its natural resources and military production. That could
change the configuration of the 'golden triangle' once more.
And then there
is the Hong Kong issue on which China disregards the views of most countries that
care about Hong Kong setting the stage for a much broader confrontation.
--o--
PANDEMIC AND POLITICS
There is
nothing surprising at Donald Trump’s innate incapacity to take on a leadership
role in addressing the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. The fact that he is
constantly taking credit (or receiving it from Mike Pence, the ultimate
sycophant) for non-existent achievements while avoiding taking responsibility
for anything that goes wrong nevertheless has made him even more despicable
than before.
Those who
did not like Trump before find it surprising that his popular rating has not
taken a nosedive. Granted, there is a hard core of Trump supporters for whom
the truth consists of what he says and what they believe rather than confirmed
facts or hard science. Signs of some erosion of support for Trump are only now
beginning to appear.
Trump’s
supporters have grown into the habit of forgiving him almost anything since he
identifies with their most important issues, such as for instance anti-abortion
policies, unconditional support for Israel or anti-China attitudes. Trump’s
attempt at catering to right-wing evangelicals by calling for the opening of
all places of worship was consistent with this approach that includes a
newly-found unlikely interest in religious matters. It did not go down well
with many mainstream churches.
Trump’s
shortcomings in handling the pandemic itself are also forgiven by his
supporters. For one thing, the pandemic is an invisible enemy, not the
President’s fault. Besides, whenever possible, the President sides with those
favouring the re-opening of the economy, even going as far as to call for the
liberation of some states and saying good things about some of the loudest and
less savoury protesters.
What
matters more in the long run to the November election is that Trump has lost
his main argument to seek the support of middle-ground electors that he needs
in a number of swing states, that is the good performance of the US economy
(not that he deserved a lot of credit for that). The economy is not likely to
be back in good shape by November.
Economic remediation measures turned out to very good for Trump’s
traditional big-business supporters, not so much for middle-class America.
The
uncertainty about the course of the pandemic (despite some basis for optimism)
as well as the uncertainty over the speed of the economic recovery are testing
Trump’s mettle. His solution, as always, is to blame anybody else and to find a
scapegoat. China was an easy and convenient target. It can give good electoral
mileage, but a head-on collision may not be in the long-term interest of either
country. Besides, China can be more patient and does not have an electoral
deadline.
As for the current civil unrest, it could firm up support for Trum within his base. It could also provide the opportunity for Biden to become truly "presidential".
As for the current civil unrest, it could firm up support for Trum within his base. It could also provide the opportunity for Biden to become truly "presidential".
--o--
STATISTICS, TO BELIEVE, OR NOT TO BELIEVE
The saying
goes that the truth is the first casualty of war. No wonder then that the fight
against COVID-19 has been called a war.
It began,
of course, with China that was charged with not reporting early enough or not
fully the number of cases or of deaths in Wuhan. The number of funeral urns
picked up by family members after the lockdown seemed excessive, even for a
city of 12 million.
Russia was
then charged with not reporting fully its cases. Now that it is reporting a
large number of cases, it is charged with not reporting deaths properly,
especially in Moscow. This is the case even now after April figures were corrected upwards by using a different methodology for counting COVID-related deaths.
Questions
arose about the large number of cases and deaths in Belgium. The answer, it
would seem is that Belgium counts every possible case. The United Kingdom was
charged with not reporting deaths of senior citizens outside of hospitals. That
seems to have changed.
Some US
states have even been under investigation for not fully reporting or even on
changing dates on reports so as to create the right curve. The graph below gives an example of the White House using statistics to spin a story: total number of tests is given without reference to actual population.
A quick
look at the international statistics would seem to suggest that there are even
greater anomalies. Saudi Arabia has almost the same number of cases as Canada
yet almost 15 times less deaths. Then, what about other Third World countries
and, even worse, refugee camps where testing is a luxury item?
All things
considered, one simply has to conclude that the statistics may give you a
general idea of the situation in a given country, but are so affected by
national circumstances that they have to be “filtered” through national lenses.
--o--
BAD NUMBERS, MIRACLE CURES?
Again, on
the matter of the truth. The difficulty of comparing national statistics was
mentioned above. Russia is seen as performing a relatively high level of
testing, but there is such a long tradition of disbelieving Soviet/Russian
official statistics that whatever figures the Russian state will produce, it
will be accused of lying one way or another, even if in this case social media traffic does not suggest large-scale problems. The COVID-19 pandemic in Russia now seems
to have reached its so-called “plateau” and to follow a pattern similar to the
one observed in other European countries in terms of the overall evolution of the
pandemic. The relatively low official number of deaths will nevertheless continue to draw attention regardless of plausible explanations.
A more intriguing
question revolves around the way in which Russia manages the medication issue. Authorities
have officially created a list the medications that are recommended and
authorised for the treatment of COVID-19, including hydroxychloroquine (at low doses and under limited conditions). There is admittedly no miracle cure on the list, but official
statements have now confirmed the approval of favipiravir, a variant of an existing Japanese drug, as the first effective medication against COVID-19, after the conclusion of clinical studies
conducted in Moscow and Russian regions. The perception may emerge that Russia is willing to move more quickly than others in approving
medication and that it is managing differently the risks that come with that kind of
approach. (The same perception is likely to affect any suggestion of the early availability of a vaccine made in Russia.) The scientific debate on favipiravir will continue and, should the medication be confirmed as any effective, may well turn into a commercial one. India is also working on its own variant of the same drug.
Russia’s
more serious problem would most likely be the disparity between the treatment
and equipment that is available in large urban centres and that which available
in outlying regions. That was confirmed by what occurred in the republic of
Dagestan (Caucasus region) where central authorities were forced to stage a
major intervention to control the situation and facilitated the use of the
above-mentioned “promising” medication.
--o--
NORTH KOREA: RUMORS, MYSTERY, QUESTIONS-WHERE IS KIM?
During the
nearly month long period, starting in mid-April when Kim did not appear in
public, international media outlets amplified thinly sourced reports suggesting
that he might be in “grave danger” or even dead following a rumored
cardiovascular procedure gone wrong.
However
Kim’s May 1 resurrection, alive and seemingly well at a ceremony marking the
opening of a fertilizer factory, exposed the news reports as overblown.
Obviously some unclear sources began questioning the authenticity of the
footage, but no credible proof was offered.
Both President Trump and Mike Pompeo issued subdued statements re-assuring the
public that Kim was alive and well. It was clear that after days of uncertainty
the North and its protector China had informed Americans and South Koreans that
Kim was alive and in control.
However, there is an important reminder that this nuclear-armed state could easily face
a leadership crisis. It is clear just by looking at the overweight, chain-smoking
and stressed young Kim that something is not well with the person at the very top of the power
structure of the secretive state.
In the event
of Kim's demise or incapacitation outside powers could clash in an attempt to
secure weapons of mass destruction or prevent refugee outflows.
Kim’s brief
disappearance has underscored the urgent need for the United States to adopt a
regional security strategy for North Korea, one that coordinates the responses
of the interested powers to the potential instability of the regime in
Pyongyang.
The North
Korean leader’s health has been a concern for some time. In the fall of 2014,
Kim vanished from public view for around six weeks and returned with a cane.
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service later indicated that he had
undergone ankle surgery on a cyst, a condition that could recur because of his
weight and lifestyle.
Since his
brief, and still somewhat unproven appearance at the fertilizer factory, which
by the way looked a lot like a typical Potemkin style village, Kim has vanished
again. There were no further signs of his presence at controls of his strange
country.
The health
of the North Korean leader is one of the most closely guarded secrets in one of
the world’s hardest intelligence targets, so any discussion of its future
leaders is highly speculative. But among the possibilities is Kim Jong Un’s
younger sister, Kim Yo Jong, who has risen in prominence in recent years and
would offer the important advantage of maintaining the Kim family bloodline.
Kim Jong Un’s uncle, Kim Pyong Il, recently returned to North Korea after
several years of diplomatic service in Europe and is another possible
successor. But the position could even go for the first time to someone outside
the Kim family, an official from the military or political leadership, for
instance.
There could
be nasty surprises in store for the world in case young Kim dies and a brutal
power struggle or even a civil conflict initiates. Or, as often the case, Kim
Jong Un may yet live a long life, even with his many health problems. If he
were to die, the loss of a brutal dictator and serial human rights violator
would be a welcome development in many corners of the world, and the transfer
of power to a new leader could be relatively smooth, as it has been for North
Korea in the past.
--o--
ISRAEL AND IRAN SHOWDOWN
Since April
2013 when Israel launched its first known attack on Syria and its Iranian
allies, hundreds of attacks against Iranian targets and Hezbollah in Syria have
been carried by the Israel Air Force (IAF).
The
outgoing Israeli defense minister Naftali Bennet recently claimed that Iran was
slowly downgrading its presence in Syria. As COVID-19 ravages Iran and its
economy Israel increases its attacks putting great deal of pressure the Iranian
regime to abandon its ambitions in Syria.
Just in
April and May 2020 Israeli jets, helicopters and missiles have struck dozens of Iranian and Hezbollah targets all across Syria and Iraq. According to Israeli
sources Syria fired hundreds of its missiles at the Israeli jets (about 100 per
year), but managed to score only one hit (Israeli F-16 was shot down in 2018
with the crew safely ejecting).
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| ©cia.gov |
It is true
that the Syrian missiles are relatively obsolete and from older generations,
but that still does not detract from the impressive capability of the IAF. Its
achievements can be attributed to a new combat doctrine developed in recent
years, to operational experience, to the introduction in different arenas of
stealth aircraft (F-35), but also to the fact that Syria has yet to activate
its advanced S-300 batteries.
This is an
interesting fact. It is well known that S-300 batteries are operated by the
Russian technicians and advisers. On one hand, Moscow seeks to stabilize Syria,
is assisted by Iran in that effort, cooperates with Assad and with Hezbollah on
the tactical level against ISIS and the rebels, and also wants to reduce
Israel’s involvement in Syria. But on the other hand, Russia turns a blind eye
to attacks by Israel, and in so doing actually tactically encourages the
campaigns against Iran. Like Israel, Russia too wants to see Iranian troops,
Shi’ite militias and Hezbollah leave Syria.
Another
reason is more prosaic: Russia is not
excited by the prospect of activating the batteries and missing their targets: it would demonstrate the technological and operational superiority of Israel
and the West. Not only the Russian pride would suffer, but also some potential
customers of the systems may get cold feet.
The Israeli
political and defense establishments now sees an opportunity to extricate Iran
from Syria. Some analysts argued that Iran's partial withdrawal is of temporary
nature. It is possible.
Iran is not
to be underestimated. Its hostility towards Israel and the West may be stronger
than its common sense. Iran is waiting mainly for the outcome of the U.S.
elections in November. Last month Iran successfully launched its first military
satellite in orbit and by using U.S. servers it failed to hack civilian Israeli
water sites. It is expected that Israel with its more advance cyber warfare
will soon retaliate. But above all Iran is still committed to its strategy, its
vision and its three supreme goals: preserving the Islamic regime, achieving
regional hegemony and attempting to obtain nuclear weapons.
--o--
ISRAEL STRIKES BACK
Israel
appears to be behind a cyberattack a few weeks ago on computers at Iran's
Shahid Rajaee port that caused massive backups on waterways and roads leading
to the facility. It was most likely,
according to unnamed foreign government officials in Israel, in retaliation for
an earlier attempted cyberattack on rural water distribution systems in Israel.
The
managing director of Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization, Mohammad Rastad,
told Iran's ILNA news agency that the cyber attack did not penetrate
the organization's computers and was only able to infiltrate and damage a
number of private operating systems.
A foreign
government security official said, however, the attack was "highly
accurate" and the damage to the Iranian port was more serious.
--o--
UKRAINE
Vladimir
Zelenskyy has just completed his first year as President of Ukraine. Not only
did he survive literally and politically, but he managed to sustain and even
increase slightly his popular rating at around 40%. This is a first for a
president of independent Ukraine.
Zelenskyy
good rating can also be explained to some extent by the fact that no new political figure has
emerged that could challenge him.
 |
| ©President of Ukraine Website |
His
accomplishments in resolving the conflict in the Donbass area may be seen as
incremental. Yet, he managed to lower the temperature, make some localised
cease-fire stick and generally decrease the number of casualties. He also
managed to negotiate a long-awaited major exchange of prisoners.
The
Normandy Format discussions, that are to facilitate the implementation of the
Minsk Peace Agreements, may not have
seen a lot of progress. They have at least continued with the full support of
France and Germany.
On the
matter of the fight against corruption the achievements are not that many and
not that tangible. Even his own Chief of Staff was indirectly embroiled in a
new scandal.
Two most
significant pieces of legislation needed to be passed to secure continuing Internationa Monetary Fund support for Ukraine: the Land Reform bill and the anti-Kolomoisky bill (from
the name of a famous oligarch once seen as the major supporter of Zelenskyy)
preventing the return to previous owners the assets of nationalised banks.
There is success on both counts.
The most
difficult part has been to keep the political majority together and to effect
the renewal of Ukraine’s political class. Having had to change both PM and
Chief of Staff during the course of the year was part of learning on the job.
In this respect, the appointment of former Georgian President Mikheil
Saakashvili as Head of the National Reform Council cannot be seen as a crowning
achievement. Saakashvili did not have the required parliamentary support to be
appointed Deputy Prime Minister. He is perceived as an archenemy of former
President Poroshenko and as such can be expected to prolong the ongoing
Zelenskyy-Poroshenko feud. His capacity to advance reforms from his new
position remains under question.
To the rest
of the world, Zelenskky may also claim to have survived the “perfect phone
call” with President Trump.
As for
Ukraine’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is still too early to pass
judgment. The overall government response appears relatively efficient. The
contamination rate is relatively low, but so is the level of testing. Besides,
the figures used to measure rates of contamination and death are based on
population levels going back prior to the migration movements of the past few
years. The situation of senior citizens in outlying rural areas should be of considerable
concern.
According to
public opinion polls, Zelenskyy’s supporters continue to expect him to deliver
first on the economic growth agenda, The resolution of the litigation with
Gazprom and the ensuing payments to Ukraine were useful in the short term, but lucrative gas transit payments cannot be guaranteed for the long term. The post-pandemic
worldwide economic downturn will not spare Ukraine. All things being considered, Zelenskyy cannot
be overly optimistic, but can take comfort in continuing public support for his
proposed general course of action in addressing Ukraine’s challenges.
--o--
PERSON OF THE MONTH: DR TEDROS ADHANOM GHEBREYESUS
The current
Director-General of the WHO is the person of the month, not so much for his
achievements but for being the head of UN agency that has a key role to play in
addressing the international dimension of the COVID-19 pandemic while the
agency has become a scapegoat for Donald Trump.
Dr Tedros
Adhanom Ghebreyesus was Ethiopia’s health minister and subsequently its foreign
minister. His accession to the leadership of the WHO in 2017 was not without
controversy. His personal style as well as his political manoeuvring to get the
job could lead one to conclude that the WHO was getting more the former Foreign
Minister than the former Health Minister or the scientist. He is the first WHO Director-General
not to be a medical doctor.
In the eyes
of the current US administration, Dr. Ghebreyesus has a few prior problems: he
associated closely with President Bill Clinton and he advocates universal
health care. There is no evidence that Trump himself is aware of this, but his senior health advisors would have to know of this background.
The WHO can
make recommendations to member states, but essentially relies on cooperation
with member states to achieve its objectives. The accusation that the WHO
cosied up to China fails to take into account the essential nature of that
relationship. In that context, the WHO DG that needed cooperation with China
was even more justified in praising China than the US President.
At a
different level, for a country like the US that tends to reject international
organisations having supra-national authority, suggesting that the WHO should
have stood up to China is at least paradoxical. The current US administration would never agree to give WHO the authority to intervene in US affairs the way it would want it to have intervened in Chinese ones.
The job of
DG of the WHO is a much political as it is medical. Most of the participating
states have acknowledged that and are not so eager to blame the WHO for the way
it managed relations with China. This does not mean absolving the WHO of possible mistakes.
WHO is the
agency that can best help Third World countries handling the pandemic. While the
WHO is at risk of losing its US support China has come to the rescue with
the promise of a generous financial commitment.
--o--
PUTIN’S POPULARITY
The most
recent public opinion polls conducted by the reputed Levada Centre would seem
to suggest that Putin’s popularity is at all-time low at somewhere around 59%
support rating. Some observers were quick to see a link between the popularity
drop and the unsatisfactory handling of the pandemic and of its economic
consequences. Others even used this to question the efficiency of the Putin
power system.
A note of
caution is necessary. Some may wish to see too much too early. Should the coming
months bring a relatively successful resolution of the pandemic-related issues,
it could not be excluded that Putin’s popularity could fluctuate upwards again.
In the history of Putin’s reign in Russia, the one thing that caused the greatest
electoral damage was the decision by then Prime Minister Putin to trade places with
then President Medvedev in late 2011. The long-term public opinion impact of the
unexpected proposed constitutional changes that would allow Putin to seek two
more presidential terms deserves further examination. “Putin fatigue” may come more
from long-term decisions than a short-term crisis response.
ISRAEL
Chinese
Ambassador to Israel Du Wei was found dead in his home on May 17th, sparking
rumors and an avalanche of media coverage. There is no evidence that anything
but natural causes was involved (it was a heart attack). However, the death of
the ambassador of a high-profile state like China at this complex time, amid
the coronavirus pandemic and in the wake of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s
visit, with stories about US pressure on Israel regarding China relations, feeds online conspiracy theories. First of all, the story spread widely
throughout international media, from Hebrew media to reports at the BBC, CNN
and other outlets.
AZERBAIJAN
Azerbaijan's
central bank has put four of the energy-rich South Caucasus country's top banks
under temporary administration, amid economic difficulties caused by a plunge
in oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic.The central bank appointed temporary
administrators for Atabank, AGBank, NBCBank, and Amrah Bank, which are among
the country's 15 largest financial institutions.No explanations were officially
given for the decision, but some media reports said it might be a first step
toward the banks' possible closure or merger with other financial institution.
UZBEKISTAN
Uzbekistan
says it has received from France assets worth $10 million illegally acquired by
Gulnara Karimova, the imprisoned elder daughter of late President Islam
Karimov.The assets were transferred to Uzbekistan's state coffers on May 14,
the Justice Ministry said.
The
statement did not provide further details on the assets, which represent a
fraction of the more than $1 billion Tashkent has sought from foreign
jurisdictions since announcing Karimova's imprisonment in 2017.
Karimova,
once seen as a possible successor to her father, was placed under house arrest
in Tashkent in 2014 while her father was still alive and running the country.
Karimov died in 2016 and Shavkat Mirziyoev succeeded soon afterward. In
December 2017, Karimova was sentenced to a 10-year prison term, but the
sentence was later reclassified to house arrest and shortened to five years.
She was placed in jail in March 2019 for allegedly violating the terms of her house
arrest.
AFGHANISTAN
Three
gunmen, disguised as doctors and security officers, stormed the clinic run by
Doctors Without Borders (MSF) on May 12th. The clinic is part of the 100-bed,
government-run Barchi National Hospital.
During a
fierce, hours-long gunbattle with Afghan security forces, the men armed with
automatic weapons and grenades indiscriminately gunned down babies, mothers,
pregnant women, and medical workers. In total 11 mothers of infants were killed in the attack. There
were many injuries.
The
attacked occurred in Dasht-e Barchi, an area in western Kabul that is
predominately inhabited by Afghanistan's Shi'ite Hazara minority. It has long
been a scene of gruesome attacks by the Taliban and Islamic State (IS)
extremist groups, including on schools, mosques, and sports facilities.
No group
has claimed responsibility for the attack, although the government has blamed
the Taliban,- dismissing the group's denial.
Even in a
country ravaged by war for more than 40 years, the attack on a maternity clinic
targeting babies and women has sparked international outrage and shocked many
Afghans who fear a war with no end.
RUSSIA-CZECH REPUBLIC
Russian
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Czech officials should reinstall a
controversial statue of Soviet Marshal Ivan Konev in Prague after city
officials removed it last month.In an interview with the Russian news agency
RBK published on May 15th, Lavrov called the Czech explanation for the move
"childish" and "a blatant violation" of the 1993
Russian-Czech agreement on friendly relations.
Relations
between Prague and Moscow have been in a downward spiral in recent months amid
what the Czechs see as Russia’s growing assertiveness over its interpretation
of history. At the center of the dispute is the removal of Konev's statue. Konev's armies completed Prague’s liberation on
May 9th, 1945. The authorities of the district from where the statue was removed said the statue would be moved to a museum and a new
monument honoring the city's liberation would take its place.
Russia has
lashed out angrily over the move, and tensions were heightened further when
Czech media reported that Moscow planned to poison three Prague politicians
in retaliation for supporting moves that have irritated Russia.
--o--
THE AUTHORS
Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe. Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, had become a textbook on relations of media and society.
During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.
