Issue 42

THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER

NEW ANGLES OF THE OLD TRIANGLE

A long time ago, Henry Kissinger, who was the only person ever to occupy simultaneously the positions of Secretary of State and National Security Adviser, formulated the US approach to Moscow and Beijing at every serious turn of history.

He compared the relations between the three major powers to a 'golden triangle'. All three sides of the triangle should never remain fixed, but rather have to reflect the geopolitical changes.

During the Cold War the main competition and animosity was taking place between the US and the USSR. China was then not as prominent within that geometrical construction or altogether in the world. It was also behind the US and USSR economically and militarily.

Still, at that time, Kissinger foresaw that with passing of time relations between Washington and Beijing could become more important and competitive than even with Russia.

Now, in 2020, it is clear that Kissinger was correct in his prediction. The idea of the 'golden triangle' theory was to have a geopolitical flexibility that would allow to keep in check any sudden ascendance of one of the parties. China has become not only a mighty competitor, but also a direct threat to America’s leading role in the world.

Alan Cohen of Forbes magazine stated in his report to the Atlantic council on May 10th that the real reason behind Trump's attacks on China with regard to the Covid-19 pandemic should be explained as a search for a pretext to get a bulk of American companies back from China.

Russia meanwhile is not willing to be a substitute player in that game. Russian media commentators usually loyal or neutral about China started to hint at the increasing behind-the-scenes power struggle within the Chinese Politburo and highest military circles.

Moscow expects some benefits from the China-US rift. Things could change if the rift turns out to be a full-scale economic war between Beijing and Washington. At the time of a world economic crisis Moscow may look to China as the only reliable market for its natural resources and military production. That could change the configuration of the 'golden triangle' once more.

And then there is the Hong Kong issue on which China disregards the views of most countries that care about Hong Kong setting the stage for a much broader confrontation.

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PANDEMIC AND POLITICS

There is nothing surprising at Donald Trump’s innate incapacity to take on a leadership role in addressing the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. The fact that he is constantly taking credit (or receiving it from Mike Pence, the ultimate sycophant) for non-existent achievements while avoiding taking responsibility for anything that goes wrong nevertheless has made him even more despicable than before.

Those who did not like Trump before find it surprising that his popular rating has not taken a nosedive. Granted, there is a hard core of Trump supporters for whom the truth consists of what he says and what they believe rather than confirmed facts or hard science. Signs of some erosion of support for Trump are only now beginning to appear.

Trump’s supporters have grown into the habit of forgiving him almost anything since he identifies with their most important issues, such as for instance anti-abortion policies, unconditional support for Israel or anti-China attitudes. Trump’s attempt at catering to right-wing evangelicals by calling for the opening of all places of worship was consistent with this approach that includes a newly-found unlikely interest in religious matters. It did not go down well with many mainstream churches.

Trump’s shortcomings in handling the pandemic itself are also forgiven by his supporters. For one thing, the pandemic is an invisible enemy, not the President’s fault. Besides, whenever possible, the President sides with those favouring the re-opening of the economy, even going as far as to call for the liberation of some states and saying good things about some of the loudest and less savoury protesters.

What matters more in the long run to the November election is that Trump has lost his main argument to seek the support of middle-ground electors that he needs in a number of swing states, that is the good performance of the US economy (not that he deserved a lot of credit for that). The economy is not likely to be back in good shape by November.  Economic remediation measures turned out to very good for Trump’s traditional big-business supporters, not so much for middle-class America.

The uncertainty about the course of the pandemic (despite some basis for optimism) as well as the uncertainty over the speed of the economic recovery are testing Trump’s mettle. His solution, as always, is to blame anybody else and to find a scapegoat. China was an easy and convenient target. It can give good electoral mileage, but a head-on collision may not be in the long-term interest of either country. Besides, China can be more patient and does not have an electoral deadline.

As for the current civil unrest, it could firm up support for Trum within his base. It could also provide the opportunity for Biden to become truly "presidential".

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STATISTICS, TO BELIEVE, OR NOT TO BELIEVE

The saying goes that the truth is the first casualty of war. No wonder then that the fight against COVID-19 has been called a war.

It began, of course, with China that was charged with not reporting early enough or not fully the number of cases or of deaths in Wuhan. The number of funeral urns picked up by family members after the lockdown seemed excessive, even for a city of 12 million.

Russia was then charged with not reporting fully its cases. Now that it is reporting a large number of cases, it is charged with not reporting deaths properly, especially in Moscow. This is the case even now after April figures were corrected upwards by using a different methodology for counting COVID-related deaths.

Questions arose about the large number of cases and deaths in Belgium. The answer, it would seem is that Belgium counts every possible case. The United Kingdom was charged with not reporting deaths of senior citizens outside of hospitals. That seems to have changed.

Some US states have even been under investigation for not fully reporting or even on changing dates on reports so as to create the right curve. The graph below gives an example of the White House using statistics to spin a story: total number of tests is given without reference to actual population.

A quick look at the international statistics would seem to suggest that there are even greater anomalies. Saudi Arabia has almost the same number of cases as Canada yet almost 15 times less deaths. Then, what about other Third World countries and, even worse, refugee camps where testing is a luxury item?

All things considered, one simply has to conclude that the statistics may give you a general idea of the situation in a given country, but are so affected by national circumstances that they have to be “filtered” through national lenses.

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BAD NUMBERS, MIRACLE CURES?

Again, on the matter of the truth. The difficulty of comparing national statistics was mentioned above. Russia is seen as performing a relatively high level of testing, but there is such a long tradition of disbelieving Soviet/Russian official statistics that whatever figures the Russian state will produce, it will be accused of lying one way or another, even if in this case social media traffic does not suggest large-scale problems. The COVID-19 pandemic in Russia now seems to have reached its so-called “plateau” and to follow a pattern similar to the one observed in other European countries in terms of the overall evolution of the pandemic. The relatively low official number of deaths will nevertheless continue to draw attention regardless of plausible explanations.  

A more intriguing question revolves around the way in which Russia manages the medication issue. Authorities have officially created a list the medications that are recommended and authorised for the treatment of COVID-19, including hydroxychloroquine (at low doses and under limited conditions). There is admittedly no miracle cure on the list, but official statements have now confirmed the approval of favipiravir, a variant of an existing Japanese drug, as the first effective medication against COVID-19, after the conclusion of clinical studies conducted in Moscow and Russian regions. The perception may emerge that Russia is willing to move more quickly than others in approving medication and that it is managing differently the risks that come with that kind of approach. (The same perception is likely to affect any suggestion of the early availability of a vaccine made in Russia.) The scientific debate on favipiravir will continue and, should the medication be confirmed as any effective, may well turn into a commercial one. India is also working on its own variant of the same drug.

Russia’s more serious problem would most likely be the disparity between the treatment and equipment that is available in large urban centres and that which available in outlying regions. That was confirmed by what occurred in the republic of Dagestan (Caucasus region) where central authorities were forced to stage a major intervention to control the situation and facilitated the use of the above-mentioned “promising” medication. 

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NORTH KOREA: RUMORS, MYSTERY, QUESTIONS-WHERE IS KIM?

During the nearly month long period, starting in mid-April when Kim did not appear in public, international media outlets amplified thinly sourced reports suggesting that he might be in “grave danger” or even dead following a rumored cardiovascular procedure gone wrong.

However Kim’s May 1 resurrection, alive and seemingly well at a ceremony marking the opening of a fertilizer factory, exposed the news reports as overblown. Obviously some unclear sources began questioning the authenticity of the footage, but no credible proof was offered.

Both President Trump and Mike Pompeo issued subdued statements re-assuring the public that Kim was alive and well. It was clear that after days of uncertainty the North and its protector China had informed Americans and South Koreans that Kim was alive and in control.

However, there is an important reminder that this nuclear-armed state could easily face a leadership crisis. It is clear just by looking at the overweight, chain-smoking and stressed young Kim that something is not well with the person at the very top of the power structure of the secretive state.

In the event of Kim's demise or incapacitation outside powers could clash in an attempt to secure weapons of mass destruction or prevent refugee outflows.

Kim’s brief disappearance has underscored the urgent need for the United States to adopt a regional security strategy for North Korea, one that coordinates the responses of the interested powers to the potential instability of the regime in Pyongyang.

The North Korean leader’s health has been a concern for some time. In the fall of 2014, Kim vanished from public view for around six weeks and returned with a cane. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service later indicated that he had undergone ankle surgery on a cyst, a condition that could recur because of his weight and lifestyle.

Since his brief, and still somewhat unproven appearance at the fertilizer factory, which by the way looked a lot like a typical Potemkin style village, Kim has vanished again. There were no further signs of his presence at controls of his strange country.

The health of the North Korean leader is one of the most closely guarded secrets in one of the world’s hardest intelligence targets, so any discussion of its future leaders is highly speculative. But among the possibilities is Kim Jong Un’s younger sister, Kim Yo Jong, who has risen in prominence in recent years and would offer the important advantage of maintaining the Kim family bloodline. Kim Jong Un’s uncle, Kim Pyong Il, recently returned to North Korea after several years of diplomatic service in Europe and is another possible successor. But the position could even go for the first time to someone outside the Kim family, an official from the military or political leadership, for instance.

There could be nasty surprises in store for the world in case young Kim dies and a brutal power struggle or even a civil conflict initiates. Or, as often the case, Kim Jong Un may yet live a long life, even with his many health problems. If he were to die, the loss of a brutal dictator and serial human rights violator would be a welcome development in many corners of the world, and the transfer of power to a new leader could be relatively smooth, as it has been for North Korea in the past.

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ISRAEL AND IRAN SHOWDOWN

Since April 2013 when Israel launched its first known attack on Syria and its Iranian allies, hundreds of attacks against Iranian targets and Hezbollah in Syria have been carried by the Israel Air Force (IAF).

The outgoing Israeli defense minister Naftali Bennet recently claimed that Iran was slowly downgrading its presence in Syria. As COVID-19 ravages Iran and its economy Israel increases its attacks putting great deal of pressure the Iranian regime to abandon its ambitions in Syria.

Just in April and May 2020 Israeli jets, helicopters and missiles have struck dozens of Iranian and Hezbollah targets all across Syria and Iraq. According to Israeli sources Syria fired hundreds of its missiles at the Israeli jets (about 100 per year), but managed to score only one hit (Israeli F-16 was shot down in 2018 with the crew safely ejecting).

©cia.gov

It is true that the Syrian missiles are relatively obsolete and from older generations, but that still does not detract from the impressive capability of the IAF. Its achievements can be attributed to a new combat doctrine developed in recent years, to operational experience, to the introduction in different arenas of stealth aircraft (F-35), but also to the fact that Syria has yet to activate its advanced S-300 batteries.

This is an interesting fact. It is well known that S-300 batteries are operated by the Russian technicians and advisers. On one hand, Moscow seeks to stabilize Syria, is assisted by Iran in that effort, cooperates with Assad and with Hezbollah on the tactical level against ISIS and the rebels, and also wants to reduce Israel’s involvement in Syria. But on the other hand, Russia turns a blind eye to attacks by Israel, and in so doing actually tactically encourages the campaigns against Iran. Like Israel, Russia too wants to see Iranian troops, Shi’ite militias and Hezbollah leave Syria.

Another reason is more prosaic:  Russia is not excited by the prospect of activating the batteries and missing their targets: it would demonstrate the technological and operational superiority of Israel and the West. Not only the Russian pride would suffer, but also some potential customers of the systems may get cold feet.

The Israeli political and defense establishments now sees an opportunity to extricate Iran from Syria. Some analysts argued that Iran's partial withdrawal is of temporary nature. It is possible.

Iran is not to be underestimated. Its hostility towards Israel and the West may be stronger than its common sense. Iran is waiting mainly for the outcome of the U.S. elections in November. Last month Iran successfully launched its first military satellite in orbit and by using U.S. servers it failed to hack civilian Israeli water sites. It is expected that Israel with its more advance cyber warfare will soon retaliate. But above all Iran is still committed to its strategy, its vision and its three supreme goals: preserving the Islamic regime, achieving regional hegemony and attempting to obtain nuclear weapons.

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ISRAEL STRIKES BACK

Israel appears to be behind a cyberattack a few weeks ago on computers at Iran's Shahid Rajaee port that caused massive backups on waterways and roads leading to the facility. It was most likely, according to unnamed foreign government officials in Israel, in retaliation for an earlier attempted cyberattack on rural water distribution systems in Israel.

The managing director of Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization, Mohammad Rastad, told Iran's ILNA news agency that the cyber attack did not penetrate the organization's computers and was only able to infiltrate and damage a number of private operating systems.

A foreign government security official said, however, the attack was "highly accurate" and the damage to the Iranian port was more serious.

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UKRAINE

Vladimir Zelenskyy has just completed his first year as President of Ukraine. Not only did he survive literally and politically, but he managed to sustain and even increase slightly his popular rating at around 40%. This is a first for a president of independent Ukraine.

Zelenskyy good rating can also be explained to some extent by the fact that no new political figure has emerged that could challenge him.

©President of Ukraine Website

His accomplishments in resolving the conflict in the Donbass area may be seen as incremental. Yet, he managed to lower the temperature, make some localised cease-fire stick and generally decrease the number of casualties. He also managed to negotiate a long-awaited major exchange of prisoners.

The Normandy Format discussions, that are to facilitate the implementation of the Minsk Peace  Agreements, may not have seen a lot of progress. They have at least continued with the full support of France and Germany.

On the matter of the fight against corruption the achievements are not that many and not that tangible. Even his own Chief of Staff was indirectly embroiled in a new scandal.

Two most significant pieces of legislation needed to be passed to secure continuing Internationa Monetary Fund support for Ukraine: the Land Reform bill and the anti-Kolomoisky bill (from the name of a famous oligarch once seen as the major supporter of Zelenskyy) preventing the return to previous owners the assets of nationalised banks. There is success on both counts.

The most difficult part has been to keep the political majority together and to effect the renewal of Ukraine’s political class. Having had to change both PM and Chief of Staff during the course of the year was part of learning on the job. In this respect, the appointment of former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili as Head of the National Reform Council cannot be seen as a crowning achievement. Saakashvili did not have the required parliamentary support to be appointed Deputy Prime Minister. He is perceived as an archenemy of former President Poroshenko and as such can be expected to prolong the ongoing Zelenskyy-Poroshenko feud. His capacity to advance reforms from his new position remains under question.

To the rest of the world, Zelenskky may also claim to have survived the “perfect phone call” with President Trump.

As for Ukraine’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is still too early to pass judgment. The overall government response appears relatively efficient. The contamination rate is relatively low, but so is the level of testing. Besides, the figures used to measure rates of contamination and death are based on population levels going back prior to the migration movements of the past few years. The situation of senior citizens in outlying rural areas should be of considerable concern.

According to public opinion polls, Zelenskyy’s supporters continue to expect him to deliver first on the economic growth agenda, The resolution of the litigation with Gazprom and the ensuing payments to Ukraine were useful in the short term, but lucrative gas transit payments cannot be guaranteed for the long term. The post-pandemic worldwide economic downturn will not spare Ukraine.  All things being considered, Zelenskyy cannot be overly optimistic, but can take comfort in continuing public support for his proposed general course of action in addressing Ukraine’s challenges.

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PERSON OF THE MONTH: DR TEDROS ADHANOM GHEBREYESUS

The current Director-General of the WHO is the person of the month, not so much for his achievements but for being the head of UN agency that has a key role to play in addressing the international dimension of the COVID-19 pandemic while the agency has become a scapegoat for Donald Trump.

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus was Ethiopia’s health minister and subsequently its foreign minister. His accession to the leadership of the WHO in 2017 was not without controversy. His personal style as well as his political manoeuvring to get the job could lead one to conclude that the WHO was getting more the former Foreign Minister than the former Health Minister or the scientist. He is the first WHO Director-General not to be a medical doctor.

In the eyes of the current US administration, Dr. Ghebreyesus has a few prior problems: he associated closely with President Bill Clinton and he advocates universal health care. There is no evidence that Trump himself is aware of this, but his senior health advisors would have to know of this background.

The WHO can make recommendations to member states, but essentially relies on cooperation with member states to achieve its objectives. The accusation that the WHO cosied up to China fails to take into account the essential nature of that relationship. In that context, the WHO DG that needed cooperation with China was even more justified in praising China than the US President.

At a different level, for a country like the US that tends to reject international organisations having supra-national authority, suggesting that the WHO should have stood up to China is at least paradoxical. The current US administration would never agree to give WHO the authority to intervene in US affairs the way it would want it to have intervened in Chinese ones.

The job of DG of the WHO is a much political as it is medical. Most of the participating states have acknowledged that and are not so eager to blame the WHO for the way it managed relations with China. This does not mean absolving the WHO of possible mistakes.

WHO is the agency that can best help Third World countries handling the pandemic. While the WHO is at risk of losing its US support China has come to the rescue with the promise of a generous financial commitment.

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PUTIN’S POPULARITY

The most recent public opinion polls conducted by the reputed Levada Centre would seem to suggest that Putin’s popularity is at all-time low at somewhere around 59% support rating. Some observers were quick to see a link between the popularity drop and the unsatisfactory handling of the pandemic and of its economic consequences. Others even used this to question the efficiency of the Putin power system.

A note of caution is necessary. Some may wish to see too much too early. Should the coming months bring a relatively successful resolution of the pandemic-related issues, it could not be excluded that Putin’s popularity could fluctuate upwards again. In the history of Putin’s reign in Russia, the one thing that caused the greatest electoral damage was the decision by then Prime Minister Putin to trade places with then President Medvedev in late 2011. The long-term public opinion impact of the unexpected proposed constitutional changes that would allow Putin to seek two more presidential terms deserves further examination. “Putin fatigue” may come more from long-term decisions than a short-term crisis response.

ISRAEL

Chinese Ambassador to Israel Du Wei was found dead in his home on May 17th, sparking rumors and an avalanche of media coverage. There is no evidence that anything but natural causes was involved (it was a heart attack). However, the death of the ambassador of a high-profile state like China at this complex time, amid the coronavirus pandemic and in the wake of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit, with stories about US pressure on Israel regarding China relations, feeds online conspiracy theories. First of all, the story spread widely throughout international media, from Hebrew media to reports at the BBC, CNN and other outlets.

AZERBAIJAN

Azerbaijan's central bank has put four of the energy-rich South Caucasus country's top banks under temporary administration, amid economic difficulties caused by a plunge in oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic.The central bank appointed temporary administrators for Atabank, AGBank, NBCBank, and Amrah Bank, which are among the country's 15 largest financial institutions.No explanations were officially given for the decision, but some media reports said it might be a first step toward the banks' possible closure or merger with other financial institution.

UZBEKISTAN

Uzbekistan says it has received from France assets worth $10 million illegally acquired by Gulnara Karimova, the imprisoned elder daughter of late President Islam Karimov.The assets were transferred to Uzbekistan's state coffers on May 14, the Justice Ministry said.

The statement did not provide further details on the assets, which represent a fraction of the more than $1 billion Tashkent has sought from foreign jurisdictions since announcing Karimova's imprisonment in 2017.

Karimova, once seen as a possible successor to her father, was placed under house arrest in Tashkent in 2014 while her father was still alive and running the country. Karimov died in 2016 and Shavkat Mirziyoev succeeded soon afterward. In December 2017, Karimova was sentenced to a 10-year prison term, but the sentence was later reclassified to house arrest and shortened to five years. She was placed in jail in March 2019 for allegedly violating the terms of her house arrest.

AFGHANISTAN

Three gunmen, disguised as doctors and security officers, stormed the clinic run by Doctors Without Borders (MSF) on May 12th. The clinic is part of the 100-bed, government-run Barchi National Hospital.

During a fierce, hours-long gunbattle with Afghan security forces, the men armed with automatic weapons and grenades indiscriminately gunned down babies, mothers, pregnant women, and medical workers. In total 11 mothers  of infants were killed in the attack. There were many injuries.

The attacked occurred in Dasht-e Barchi, an area in western Kabul that is predominately inhabited by Afghanistan's Shi'ite Hazara minority. It has long been a scene of gruesome attacks by the Taliban and Islamic State (IS) extremist groups, including on schools, mosques, and sports facilities.

No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, although the government has blamed the Taliban,- dismissing the group's denial.

Even in a country ravaged by war for more than 40 years, the attack on a maternity clinic targeting babies and women has sparked international outrage and shocked many Afghans who fear a war with no end.

RUSSIA-CZECH REPUBLIC

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Czech officials should reinstall a controversial statue of Soviet Marshal Ivan Konev in Prague after city officials removed it last month.In an interview with the Russian news agency RBK published on May 15th, Lavrov called the Czech explanation for the move "childish" and "a blatant violation" of the 1993 Russian-Czech agreement on friendly relations.

Relations between Prague and Moscow have been in a downward spiral in recent months amid what the Czechs see as Russia’s growing assertiveness over its interpretation of history. At the center of the dispute is the removal of Konev's statue. Konev's armies completed Prague’s liberation on May 9th, 1945. The authorities of the district from where the statue was removed said the statue would be moved to a museum and a new monument honoring the city's liberation would take its place.

Russia has lashed out angrily over the move, and tensions were heightened further when Czech media reported that Moscow planned to poison three Prague politicians in retaliation for supporting moves that have irritated Russia.

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THE AUTHORS

Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe.  Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, had become a textbook on relations of media and society.

During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.

Gilles Breton also currently serves as Chairman of the National Board of the Canada-Eurasia-Russia Business Association. The views expressed in this newsletter exclusively reflect the opinion of the authors.