Issue 43

THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER

TRUMP FALLING FURTHER BEHIND IN RECENT POLLS

Over the past two months, Donald Trump’s approval ratings have nosedived, first because of his heavily-criticized inadequate response to the coronavirus pandemic and, more recently, his reaction to the antiracism protests following, among other similar events, the killing of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer.

Trump's attempt to paint himself as a law and order candidate so far has very little positive reflection in the polls. It would almost seem as though the law and order label is turning off some of the less committed Trump supporters.

The latest New-York Times poll and (for balance) FOX news poll show the president behind Joe Biden in all 6 decisive battleground states (Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona). In some states Biden's lead is in double digits.

Historically, only the elder George Bush senior had similar numbers as an incumbent. He went down big time to a young man by the name of Bill Clinton.

If the same numbers hold, though four months is a long time in politics, Biden will get around 333 electoral college votes against Trump's 202.

From Joe Biden's Facebook page

What should be troubling for Donald Trump and his camp is that he is trailing Joe Biden who hardly ever ventures out of his home and who has a hard time formulating simple concepts or even reading off the teleprompter. So far Biden gave interviews only to a selected group of partisan reporters and was served with soft ball questions. Even in this comfort zone Biden manages to mangle almost every interview and even in a limited capacity shows obvious signs of cognitive malfunctions. He is not the Joe Biden we knew even 3-4 years ago. This subject is almost a taboo for such news outlets as MSNBC, CNN, New York Times, Washington Post and other from anti-Trump media camp.

This cannot last and eventually American people will see Biden more thoroughly and some tough questions will be asked of him. There will be debates and interviews. Biden will have to finally face a marginally younger, but more dynamic, tough talking, aggressive and brilliant campaigner.

There is another aspect concerning accuracy of polls which so far has not been highlighted. We all live in a stringent, politically correct culture, and cancel culture is widespread. All kinds of people are fired, dismissed and forced to utter confessions and apologies for not expressing "proper and progressive views". Gone are the times when one can easily say what one thinks. Now most people say what is required. It would not be far fetched to state that a number of people, possibly a larger number than one imagines, would not reveal their true political beliefs and alliances. Many in America are weary of radical elements in the Democratic party who could easily manipulate Grandpa Joe and run circles around him while he is taking an afternoon nap.

The pandemic is not receding, quite the contrary. The economy is in deep trouble. It will probably pick up a bit before November, but not in a significant way.

Two things can help Trump to win a second term. Number one is Joe Biden will become incapacitated for reasons of health.

The second one is more nuanced.

If the economy begins to show signs of recovery and if Trump is able to verbalize in a semi coherent way that the election of Joe Biden and his progressive entourage will mean open borders, further destruction of American history and heritage, immunity for left-wing domestic terrorists, emasculation of police, soft approach to China, appeasement of radical Islamic regimes (mainly Iran) and most likely the most anti-Israeli administration in decades...and if people will buy this message, he may have a chance.

From Donald Trump's Facebook page

There is of course the possibility that Trump could undo all of that if there is no parental control over his Twitter account.

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HOPING TO WIN, HOPING TO FAIL

Canada was hoping to secure a seat as non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for 2021 and 2022. It failed, losing to Norway and Ireland in the first round of voting. The post-mortem examination offered a multitude of explanations, including that Canada started its campaign too late. Some even argued that China, being upset with the detention of Meng Wanzhou, a senior Huawei executive, would have used its influence to denigrate Canada. The fact is that China did not have to do anything. To countries that look at this from a greater distance, Canada having agreed to detain a Chinese for what is essentially a violation of US law would send the signal that when it matters Canada will follow the US lead. Being perceived as different from the US and having your own identity could have have beeb helpful. In what turned out to be a tight race, it would only have taken a few states that did not want any greater support for the US at the Security Council to cast their votes for highly-respected and generous Norway or for the EU through Ireland rather than for Canada that would be perceived as too much under the influence of its neighbour.

The Meng Wanzhou detention in Canada and the ensuing detention of two Canadians, Spavor and Kovrig, in China have led to considerable political and legal debate.

©Free Michael Spavor Blog

Under Canadian legislation, the Minister of Justice can at any point put an end to an extradition process. This ministerial discretion serves to avoid an extradition process becoming an automatic process that could lead to undesirable consequences such as for instance the extradition to a country where the detainee could be subject to torture or the death penalty.

A group of senior legal and political luminaries just reminded the Minister of Justice of his legal authority to end the extradition process, arguing that he should use that authority to secure the release of the two Canadians held in China, to put behind the incident and to afford the Canadian government the occasion to re-define its overall policy vis-à-vis China.    

Another group of senior individuals quickly responded and argued the exact opposite on the basis of rule of law and our treaty obligations to the US, denouncing the ideas of a prisoner exchange and of yielding to hostake-takers.

In hindsight, it would have been much preferable for the Minister of Justice to end the extradition at the very outset. Although extra-territoriality no longer seems a very popular argument, the Minister of Justice could have used it a face-saving device to argue that Meng Wanzhou was arrested for violating US sanctions, not international sanctions, and that pursuing extradition would be according US law an extra-territorial reach which we reject as a matter of principle. Right or not, we would have avoided being caught in the middle. The Canadian government, however, did not want to displease the US. Such an approach would have required a high level of moral authority and the willingness to weather the consequences of such a decision.

Michael Kovrig
©International Crisis Group

Now that the judicial process has gone through several stages, it is far more difficult for the Minister of Justice to use his legal authority to stop the extradition process as it would reinforce the impression of political interference. The Minister is essentially caught in having the Canadian courts go through the full lengthy process and reserving for himself the right to review the final extradition decision. The two Canadians detained in China would certainly know that.

The group that asked for the Minister of Justice to end the extradition process probably find themselves on a better legal basis. The argument that using a legal provision to stop a judicial process is against the rule of law is weak, to say the least.

The group that asked for the Minister of Justice not to end the extradition process probably find themselves on more solid political ground. As noted above, this is not a simple matter of acceding to treaty obligations, it is, politically, a matter of helping a long-time ally versus a powerful adversary. It is not Canada cannot expect a reward from any US management, but that it can avoid more unpleasantness.

Ultimately the crux of the matter is the age-old problem of how to deal with a hostage-taker, with the added dimension that the hostage-taker is a sovereign government and a major trade partner.

It is morally right to argue against negotiating with hostake-takers. It is most unfair to condemn two innocent individuals to years of harsh detention on account of national interest. The humanitarian argument in favour of paying a ransom would be bolstered if you could demonstrate not that you will never do it again, but that you will go after the hostake-taker in such a way as to avoid ever becoming so vulnerable, which is essentially what is argued in other words by those who want an end to the extradition process when they seek a re-definition of Canada’s strategic approach to China, after the "exchange of prisoners".

The objective of re-defining relations with China is, however, much broader: it ultimately is to protect against arbitrary actions by China as well as to ensure that China follows agreed rules. Hong Kong’s problems obviously come to mind. This is not something that will be achieved by a few minor adjustments. Collective long-term commitment and actions by the leaders of the international community will be necessary to reset the terms of relations with China. Is there even appetite for that?

Finally, in the case of the two Canadian detainees, diplomatic efforts are a comfort, not much else. The Minister of Justice and the Prime Minister might also secretly harbour the wish that there could be a political window of opportunity, such as a presidential transition in the US or the failure of the extradition process in Court. Either are possible.

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KOSOVAR PRESIDENT INDICTED ON WAR-CRIMES CHARGES

The Kosovo Specialist Prosecutor’s Office (SPO) has indicted Kosovar President Hashim Thaci, former parliamentary chairman Kadri Veseli, and “others” for war crimes and crimes against humanity allegedly committed during or after the 1998-1999 Kosovo conflict.

Aside from a few Croatian war criminals, most indictments by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia were levelled against Serbs. Critics of such practices were always insisting that such inequity was due to the Western support of Croatia and, later, of Kosovo independence.

Serbia and its ally Russia were always skeptical of the one-sided motives of the Western powers in seeking only Serbian perpetrators of crimes against humanity.

The current attempt to restore justice for Serbian (and Roma) victims of the conflict clearly justifies, in retrospect, the above-mentioned concerns of Belgrade and Moscow.

The SPO said in a statement on June 24^th that the suspects “are criminally responsible for nearly 100 murders,” as well as the “enforced disappearance of persons, persecution, and torture.”

The alleged crimes involved “hundreds of known victims of Kosovo Albanian, Serb, Roma, and other ethnicities and include political opponents. "

Thaci and Veseli were commanders of the Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK), an ethnic Albanian guerrilla group that fought against Belgrade's security forces in the 1998-99 war. The former Serbian province declared independence in 2008, a move Serbia, Russia, and a handful of European Union member states refuse to recognize.

Veseli, who currently leads the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) and continues to serve as a lawmaker, denied "any involvement in any crime" and said he is "proud to have taken part in the liberation war of the Kosovo people."

Kosovo was part of Serbia until an armed uprising by the ethnic Albanian majority population in 1998-99 triggered a Serbian crackdown. The conflict ended following a 78-day NATO bombing campaign to force Serbian troops out of Kosovo. The war left more than 10,000 dead and over 1,600 still missing.

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UNLOVED UKRAINE

In his recently published book former US National Security Adviser John Bolton reveals that Donald Trump virtually could not use the word Ukraine without qualifying it with some profanity.  This confirms the fact Ukraine is of no interest to Donald Trump as it cannot offer him anything that could contribute to his re-election, even though he tried.

President Zelenskyy on call with Canada's Globe and Mail, June 22nd
©President of Ukraine Website 

The lack of interest at the top of the US administration nevertheless does not prevent Ukraine from getting the necessary support from the international community. In early June the IMF confirmed it was offering Ukraine a USD 5 billion standby 18-month financing program.  This is good news for Ukraine’s short-term solvability. Ukraine currently has relatively good financial reserves and can now borrow more from institutional lenders that traditionally will follow the IMF lead. The IMF support took longer than expected to arrive and is now for only 18 months rather than 3 years. The problem is not that the Ukraine did not meet IMF requirements on privatisation of land and banking integrity. It did adopt the required relevant legislation on both counts. The explanation is that the pandemic conditions have created an uncertainty which calls for a shorter emergency measure rather than a longer-term arrangement.

The criticism that accompanied the IMF loan is more troublesome. Concern is expressed over Ukraine’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic and over its overall economic policies.

Ukraine’s management of the COVID-19 is difficult to gauge. The President is saying and doing the right things, but may have yielded too early to regional pressure to open up the economy. The relatively low level of testing is also a cause for considerable uncertainty.

 As for the economy, despite the fresh IMF money, it is clear that there is general lack of confidence and optimism that the Zelenskyy administration can deliver the required additional reforms that would underpin greater economic growth.

Rumours continue to circulate that President Zelenskyy would want to appoint former Georgian President Saakashvili as his Prime Minister. Saakashvili would be seen as one of the few people who can actually carry the required reforms in Ukraine. Not everybody agrees. Zelenskyy may have to get a new Parliament to get Saakashvili appointed. New parliamentary elections are a high price to pay and could be risky. The Saakashvili personality apart, the greater problem behind this is the perception that Ukraine’s reform and economic problems can be resolved by the intervention of some messiah. This does not instill a lot of confidence.

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RUSSIA

President Vladimir Putin has said that he would consider standing for election again if Russian voters approve a controversial constitutional amendment in a vote scheduled for July 1st.

Putin’s comments, broadcast on state-run TV on June 21st, were the strongest indications to date of his intentions, and come just 10 days before the July 1st vote.

"I have not made any decisions yet," he said in comments excerpted by Russian news agencies. "I am not ruling out the possibility of running for office if the option appears in the constitution. We will see."

President Putin, Address to the nation, June 30th
©President of Russia Website

There was another interesting aspect as Putin suggested that finding a successor would potentially be a distraction if he chose not to run again. That is an indication that the Kremlin fears a succession struggle among rival factions in case Putin is to step down from his post, or that in the Kremlin’s eyes there is no political figure capable of consolidating power.

"If this does not happen [staying in power], then in about two years, and I know this from personal experience, the normal rhythm of work of many parts of government will be replaced by a search for possible successors," he was quoted by RIA-Novosti.

The Kremlin had hoped to hold the vote on constitutional amendments in April, but the sweeping restrictions put in place to curb the spread of the coronavirus forced its postponement until July 1st. All indications are that there will be strong support for the constitutional amendments.

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PERSON OF THE MONTH: URSULA VON DER LEYEN

When the EU is confronted with a crisis, you can count on some commentators to predict that it is doomed. At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, lack of solidarity among EU members and states turning to themselves were highlighted as a sign that the end was near. If the threat was not an exaggeration, Ursula von der Leyen could be seen as the latest saviour of the EU.

In her 7 months as president of the European Commission von der Leyen has done very well, probably better than most expected. In connection with the pandemic, she offered a heartfelt apology to Italy for the lack of response from other EU members at the beginning of the crisis. She was also a driving force behind the 500 billion Euros relief package to member countries. She may not have done so much about the Brexit issue, but enough to keep the political dialogue open with Boris Johnson.

Born in Belgium in a family with German and British American roots, she obtained her medical diploma in Germany where she also completed advanced medical studies. She studied for a time in London and also later on lived in the US with her husband.

Her political career began in Saxony when she was a minister of social affairs and labour. Later she became labour minister in the Angela Merkel government and later first woman defence minister in German history. According to NATO military experts she was a decent defence minister introducing tough measures to curb hazing in the armed forces and was credited with overall modernization of German Army at that time.

The political alignment was not there for her to replace Angela Merkel as Chancellor. She may well replace her as a European leader.

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GERMANY

Amid a wide-spread vandalism and toppling of historical statues in the West, a life-sized statue of Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin was unveiled on June 20th in Gelsenkirchen, a former mining town in western Germany, by the radical left-wing Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany (MLPD).

The installation of Germany's first large public statue of Lenin outside the former communist East Germany was fiercely opposed by many Germans.

Gelsenkirchen's city council took the Marxists to court in an attempt to stop the action, calling Lenin a "representative of violence, suppression, terror, and immense human suffering."

But the council's case that the statue would "disturb the view" of a nearby historic bank was thrown out and the Marxists were given the green light to erect the monument.

The 1.3-ton, cast-iron statue was made in the former Czechoslovakia in 1957 and bought by the MLPD in an online auction for roughly $18,000.

The Marxist party is now planning to erect a statue of Karl Marx to stand next to the controversial Lenin, but gave no timeline for the project.

KAZAKHSTAN

Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who continues to wield considerable influence in the Central Asian country after his sudden resignation last year, has tested positive for the coronavirus.

Recently, Health Minister Elzhan Birtanov, the chairman of the parliament's lower chamber, Nurlan Nyghmatulin, presidential spokesman Berik Uali, and several other officials have also tested positive for the coronavirus.

As of June 18, the total number of registered coronavirus cases in Kazakhstan was reported as close to 22,000, including 188 deaths. That is the highest number among the five Central Asian countries.

KYRGYZSTAN

Kyrgyz lawmakers have approved a bill ratifying a Kyrgyz-Russian protocol amending an agreement on the usage of Russia's military base in the Central Asian nation.

According to the bill approved in its third and final reading on June 12, Russia's annual fee for renting land for its combined military base in Kyrgyzstan will be increased. After the amount of rented territory is amended, the current annual rental fee of $4,502,495 will be increased by $291,600, according to the bill.

Russia's air base at Kant was opened in 2003 under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which includes Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan.

A U.S. air base outside the capital, Bishkek, began hosting U.S. troops in 2001 as part of the military campaign in nearby Afghanistan, but Kyrgyzstan shut it in 2014 amid pressure from Moscow.

In 2017, the Kant air base and three other Russian military facilities in Kyrgyzstan were consolidated into a single combined base.

TURKMENISTAN

Turkmenistan is facing severe food shortages and has further tightened the rationing of basic foodstuffs at subsidized prices, introducing special registration books to track purchases at state stores. Each household will receive a school notebook with a certificate inside from a neighborhood committee stating the number of people in the family and its address.

Each purchase conducted by a household in state-owned stores will be registered in the book, according to the independent Turkmen.news website.

Those who do not have a book will not be allowed to purchase some of the subsidized staples available in government stores, including flour, rice, cooking oil, sugar, and potatoes.

Tightly controlled Turkmenistan has been facing food price hikes and a food shortage in recent years. The main reason behind this is ostensibly the decrease in revenue from gas exports.

UZBEKISTAN

The U.S. State Department has announced that religious freedom in Uzbekistan continues to improve, while Iran and China remain among the worst offending countries in the world.

"In many places of the world, individuals have become more familiar with religious oppression than religious freedom," Sam Brownback, the ambassador at large for international religious freedom, said on June 10^th after the release of an annual report on religious freedom.

Uzbekistan was removed from the "worst of the worst" list of offenders of religious freedom last year and continues to take positive steps despite continued abuses.

“We documented no police raids of unregistered religious-group meetings during 2019, compared with 114 such raids in 2018, and 240 the year before that. These are great strides, real progress,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told a news conference in Washington.

However, Tashkent remains on a special watch list, meaning there are still "severe" violations of religious freedom in the Central Asian country.

Pompeo said that while there was improvement in some countries, there remained “great darkness over parts of the world where people of faith are persecuted or denied the right to worship.”

BELARUS

Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenka declared that his security forces thwarted an attempt to foment revolution in his country, a day after his government ordered the arrest of a popular, would-be presidential candidate, prompting thousands to take to the streets to protest what they see as increased harassment of opposition leaders.

Speaking at a government meeting on June 19th, Lukashenko said that forces “in the East and West” were trying to destabilize Belarus but that their “masks have been torn off” and the “puppets and puppet masters abroad” identified.

Belarus, with a population of some 9.5 million, has one of Europe’s highest infection rates for the coronavirus, which Lukashenka dismissed as a “mass psychosis” and ignored calls by the World Health Organization and others to institute any social-distancing measures.

The World Bank predicts the Belarusian economy will contract 4 percent this year as a result of the pandemic, while some informal, online polls put Lukashenka’s public support at just 3 percent.

In the election on August 9, Lukashenka will be seeking a sixth term in office. No election, either for president or parliament, during his rule has been deemed free and fair by Western governments and institutions.

The previous day, thousands of people took to Independence Boulevard in what was dubbed a picket of solidarity after Viktar Babaryka, who headed the Russian-owned Belgazprombank for 20 years, was detained on suspicion of financial crimes, as well as his son who heads his presidential election campaign.

Belarusian authorities on June 15 took control of the bank and arrested more than a dozen top executives on charges of tax evasion and money laundering.

Babaryka, 56, has said the actions taken against Belgazprombank were part of an intimidation campaign conducted on “political orders.”

On June 19th, the European Union called on Belarus to immediately release Babaryka and his son from detention and to guarantee full respect of the rule of law.

UKRAINE

European Union leaders on June 19 have supported a six-month extension of economic sanctions imposed against Russia over its role in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel briefed other EU heads of state and government during a videoconference and declared that no progress had been made in implementing the Minsk agreement.

The sanctions were first adopted in July 2014 after Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula and began providing military support for pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine in a conflict that has killed more than 13,000 people.

Since then, the sanctions have been extended every six months. A formal decision to prolong the sanctions beyond their current July 31 expiry date is to be taken by EU ambassadors in the coming weeks.

Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this year proposed a freeze on economic sanctions on "humanitarian" grounds to allow countries to better combat the coronavirus pandemic however EU officials have rejected Putin's call, with both European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel insisting the measures "do not impede Russia’s capacity" to combat the epidemic.

The sanctions mainly target Russia’s financial, energy, and defense industries.

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THE AUTHORS

Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe.  Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, had become a textbook on relations of media and society.

During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.

Gilles Breton also currently serves as Chairman of the National Board of the Canada-Eurasia-Russia Business Association. The views expressed in this newsletter exclusively reflect the opinion of the authors.