Sunday, January 31, 2021

Issue 49

THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER

FAREWELL, DON!

Donald Trump left the White House for the very last time on the morning of January 20^th to fly to Florida where he is planning to live at least for the time being at Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach. Trump wished President Biden luck during his farewell speech at Andrews Air Force Base, almost implying that he may have lost because of bad luck and that Biden will need all the luck possible to succeed. Trump’s only gesture in line with a normal transition process was to leave a letter to his successor. The content of the letter is being kept private for now.

Trump and House Minority Leader McCarthy, Mar-a-Lago, January 28th
From McCarthy's Facebook page

Now, as the inauguration of Joe Biden has concluded, former president Trump is also leaving behind a legacy of chaos and tumult and a nation bitterly divided and confronted with emboldened white supremacists and conspiracy theorists.

Four years after standing on stage at his own inauguration and painting a dire picture of "American carnage," Trump departs the office twice impeached, with millions more out of work and 450,000 dead from the coronavirus. Republicans under his watch lost the presidency and both chambers of Congress. He will be forever remembered for the final major act of his presidency: inciting an insurrection at the Capitol that left five dead, including a Capitol Police officer, and horrified the nation.

Trump also became the first outgoing president since Andrew Johnson in 1869 to boycott the Inauguration Day ceremony marking the formal transfer of power, in a final display of spite at his failure to win re-election.

The night before, Donald Trump issued pardons for 73 people and commuted sentences for 70 others. Among the most notable was Steve Bannon who joined many other former Trump associates on the list. Trump has, however, not pre-emptively pardoned himself, members of his family or his long-time confidant and lawyer Rudy Giuliani. Secret pardons have been rumoured, but would have seem to have questionable validity.

Trump also pledged, "We'll be back in some form. "Have a good life, we'll see you soon," he said. Trump may have wanted to form a new political party further fracturing the already damaged GOP. That, however, is for now highly unlikely as there is still a strong majority of Republicans who, out of fear or loyalty, are unwilling to part from him.

Banned from Twitter after his supporters stormed the US Capitol on January 6th, Trump used an old-school method, an emailed press release, to distribute a farewell video on January 19^th in which he veered from his usual divisive rhetoric and sounded an upbeat message. "Now more than ever, we must unify around our shared values and rise above the partisan rancor, and forge our common destiny," Trump said in conclusion.

Such was an unusual end to the unusual presidency.

TO IMPEACH OR TO PROSECUTE, OR BOTH

The Democratic majority in the House was determined to ensure that Trump’s role in the January 6^th insurrection would be sanctioned as a major anti-democratic crime. Trump thus became the only president to be impeached for a second time. Despite most of the Republican senators’ known unwillingness to convict Trump, Democratic senators are continuing the impeachment procedure even if Trump is no longer president. To a certain extent, the result does not so much matter. The impeachment has cast Trump as a disgraced president. The conduct of the trial will provide the occasion for a full exposure of Trump’s role in the insurrection. This may not be enough to disqualify him from holding office in the future but could discredit him further in the eyes of moderate voters and may leave the door open for further criminal prosecution.

There is still also the prospect of Trump being charged for violations of state law in New York state in connection with Trump Foundation irregularities as well as in a separate case of tax fraud. There was no point in Trump trying to pardon himself as presidential pardons do not protect from prosecution under state laws. There is a potential for Trump’s post -presidency life to become rather unpleasant.

--o--

US-RUSSIA: THE BIDEN PARADOX

Amidst all the other actions taken by the Biden Administration, the decision to extend for five years the Strategic ARMS Reduction Treaty of 2010 (New START, that establishes a limit on deployed strategic warheads) did not receive much attention, except in Moscow. The decision was quickly welcomed by Russian authorities. By January 29^th, Russia had already ratified the treaty extension.

Russian Defense Ministry Press Service image of an intercontinental ballistic missile test launched from Plesetsk in Northern Russia

As a “compromised” president, Trump did not have credibility to agree on anything with Russia. In the case of the New Start he was also inclined to follow the views of John Bolton, one of his many national security advisors, who was known to advocate against treaties that are perceived as limiting the US’ freedom to do whatever it wants. Biden would have also recognized the futility of trying to bring China into a new treaty. Biden is expected to take a hard line with respect to Russia, but he has the moral authority to agree with Russia in a situation where US national security interests are at stake. For Moscow, this is better than what Trump produced. It also challenges the assumption that Russia would have preferred to keep Trump on board.

The Biden administration is also seeking a full review of all Russian actions: the major hacking of US computer systems, dubbed as the Solar Winds event, the poisoning of Russian activist Navalny as well the alleged bounties put on the heads of US soldiers in Afghanistan. This is a matter of continuing to define Moscow as the principal adversary and striking a balance when making a decision that appears to meet Russia wishes, even if it is perfectly in line with US national interest.

The most fundamental change in approaches to both China and Russia from Trump's policy has been formulated by key Biden associates: China is America's main competitor and Russia remains the main adversary.

Of some interest in the public discussion of Russian hacking is the discrete acknowledgment that Russia seems to be successful at doing what the US itself is doing or would like to do without getting caught. The US would find it difficult to condemn the kind of spying which it is known to have conducted itself for years. Direct retaliation in the form of disruption of Russian computer systems would be possible but would be dangerous. The general view is that the US has particularly good cyberwarfare offensive capacity but that its defensive capacity is not so strong, as was shown by the Solar Winds intrusion that operated for several months without being noticed. Furthermore, the US greater dependence on open computer systems would create a greater vulnerability.

All things considered, Biden’s willingness to call Putin and to have in the words of the Kremlin a “business-like and open discussion” as well as to remain in contact may not offer the hope of improved US-Russia relations but it opens the door to cooperation on issues where interests converge. This would be the case with the renewal of the nuclear deal with Iran in which Russia, as the provider of civilian nuclear technology to Iran, has the inside track and is a key player.

--o--

DEALING WITH IRAN

Donald Trump’s opposition to the Iran nuclear deal was mainly based on the view that anything done by Barack Obama was fundamentally flawed. Trump’s position was comforted in that it conveniently matched the views of Israeli PM Netanyahu.

Family photo at the announcement of the framework for agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, Lausanne, April 2nd, 2015

The rationale for the conclusion of the nuclear deal with Iran remains the same as during the Obama presidency, that is curtailing Iran’s nuclear ambitions and having the capacity to verify Iran’s respect for its commitments. Judging by the people president Biden already put in charge of the State Department and the intelligence apparatus, many who were personally involved in the 2015 deal or who strongly believe in diplomacy with Iran, the odds are that the US will try to revive the deal.

For Iran, the rationale also remains the same. Giving up advancing quickly towards having a nuclear bomb is traded for the lifting of nuclear-related sanctions. The logic here is that Iran needs the money more than the bomb at this time. Yet, Iran can retain a dormant nuclear weapon capacity, not to be at a complete disadvantage with Israel that already has that capacity.

On this issue, Iran, the EU and Russia clearly see the election of Joe Biden as opening new opportunities. The economic implications for EU countries, especially France and Germany, are significant.

Beyond the visceral opposition of Israel and Sunni Arab states, there are two issues that could make it more difficult to re-activate the nuclear deal. First, the deal does not address the issue of ballistic missile capacity. Second the deal was concluded prior to Russia coming to the rescue of the Assad regime in Syria and in support of Iran’s own existing efforts in that country.

Since the sanctions that Iran wants lifted are related to its nuclear program there is no logic for other elements to enter the negotiating equation. Yet, Iran’s continuing development of its ballistic missile program and its presence in Syria, including its support for Hezbollah’s military activity, alter the overall context and make it more difficult to present the deal to Western public opinion. It may therefore be necessary to update the deal with provisions or measures that go further and amount to more than a few cosmetic changes.

--o--

THE NAVALNY PARADOX

On January 17^th Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny arrived in Moscow from Germany, where he was being treated after being poisoned, and was promptly detained by law enforcement authorities at Sheremetyevo airport. A live broadcast of his arrival showed police taking the 44-year-old Kremlin critic away at the passport control booth.

Russia's prison authority confirmed Navalny's detention and stated that he was being held because of “multiple violations” of the conditions of his suspended sentence relating to a 2014 fraud conviction and for evading criminal inspectors. Shortly before he was detained, Navalny told journalists he was “happy” to be back in Russia and that he was confident he would not be arrested.

Navalny arrived from Germany after being flown there for emergency medical care after being poisoned in Russia in August 2020. Laboratory tests conducted in Germany, France, and Sweden have established that Navalny was poisoned with a nerve agent of the Soviet-style Novichok class, a conclusion confirmed by the international Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

The Gelendzhik palace
©Wikipedia

After his arrival Navalny arranged for the release of a lengthy video in which he accused Vladimir Putin of long-standing corruption and of building himself a sumptuous palace near Gelendzhik on the Black Sea coast. The video was viewed by millions in Russia. For the first time ever acknowledging even indirectly Navalny’s existence, Putin denied having anything to do with the Black Sea palace. Arkady Rotenberg, a long-time friend of Putin, has since then stated that he is the legal owner of the resort in question.

Navalny also called for massive anti-Putin protests to take place on January 24^th. The foreign media coverage of the protests focused on Moscow and St. Petersburg and highlighted the brutality of police repression and the large number of individuals under arrest. The Russian television coverage highlighted some aggressive behaviour by protesters in Moscow and tried to create outrage over the large number of under-age participants. Other observers rightfully noted that the national scope of the protests was far more important and that outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg protests were a generally peaceful affair. More protests are expected in coming weeks.

From Alexei Navalny's Facebook page

Among observers, both Russian and foreign, the debate centers on the political significance of the Navalny protests: is the regime shaken, frightened or simply annoyed? “Concerned” might be the better answer. By Russian standards, the protests were not as well attended as hoped, but they were also much more widespread. The protests have brought in many individuals who never participated in such actions before. The movement is more anti-Putin than pro-Navalny: the protests are an expression of anger and frustration at Putin’s leadership, but they have not yet morphed into a movement with political demands beyond the ouster of the current leader. As an activist focussing his attention on accusing Putin of corruption Navalny is successful in channeling the discontent of many politically minded individuals across the whole of Russia. This may make him the real opposition figure, but it does not make him yet a viable alternate political option and one that could have success in the forthcoming legislative elections this September.

Is the Navalny movement changing political life in Russia? Possibly, it is too early to tell. Using social networks to organise protests is one thing. Becoming an effective political force is a more difficult task. Will it lead to change at the top? For now, this is unlikely. The ones who would have and might go first are the members of the systemic opposition. With a real opposition in place, they would become redundant.

How will the Kremlin deal with Navalny from now on? Send him and his associates to jail for a long time or let them be. The first option seems more likely as is the more robust repression of protests.

--o--

THE ZELENSKY PARADOX, THE UKRAINE PARADOX

As we noted before, President Biden’s election is prima facie good news for Ukraine. The President knows the country well and is seen as a strong supporter. That, however, may not be so useful now as it may seem.

Under the Poroshenko presidency, the priority was to strengthen the anti-terrorist operation against Eastern Ukraine rebels. Under the Zelenskyy presidency the priority is to keep the cease-fire and arrange the return of rebel territories to the sovereignty of Ukraine. The sympathy of the Biden administration means that Biden raised the Ukraine conflict with Putin during their first call. It is clear Ukraine will have plenty of US-supplied military hardware President Zelenskyy would rather not use in a manner that would further alienate the population of Eastern Ukraine, if that population ever were to return to Ukrainian jurisdiction.

Then Vice-President Biden, former President Poroshenko, Kyiv, January 2017

Under Poroshenko, the fight against corruption was an uncertain proposition. Under Zelensky it is a priority. Zelenskyy does not really need outside pressure for the US to fight corruption: he already has all the pressure he can use from the IMF and the EU.

Economic cooperation was singled out by Zelenskyy’s office as the other area where it had expectations from the Biden administration. There will continue to be direct US assistance to Ukraine but not likely any significant increase in public spending in these difficult times. What would matter more is increasing the flow of US foreign direct investment into Ukraine, a more long-term objective.

The most immediate problem area in which President Zelenskyy (whose popular rating has taken a serious hit) could use some assistance is the procurement of COVID-19 vaccines. Amidst the ongoing difficulties encountered by many countries in securing additional supply of vaccines, there is at this time little sign of anyone coming quickly to the rescue. Relatively small shipments of the Pfizer vaccine may become available in February through the WHO-led COVAX programme.

There has of course been controversy over the idea of Ukraine procuring and even producing a version of the Russian Sputnik-5 vaccine, that is already approved for use in Hungary and Serbia, among many others. Ukraine would seem to have the capacity to replicate the Russian vaccine in its own specialised pharmaceutical facilities in Kharkiv. For political reasons, recourse to Sputnik-5 or the idea of producing it in Ukraine have been rejected for fear of allowing pro-Russian forces to benefit from the process. This happens at the same time as Russia, on a country-by-country basis, remains Ukraine’s largest trading partner.

--o--

KAZAKHSTAN

Kazakhstan's newly elected parliament has voted to keep Prime Minister Askar Mamin in the post following the recent elections as the country looks for continuity to attract foreign investment into its oil, gas, and mining sectors.

International election observers from the OSCE found the legal framework for the January 10th elections “not yet conducive to holding elections in line with OSCE commitments for democratic elections, despite a number of revisions introduced since the country’s last parliamentary elections”.

It was Kazakhstan's first parliamentary elections since the resignation in early 2019 of long-time President Nursultan Nazarbayev who still holds considerable power after handpicking Kassym-Jomart Tokayev as his successor.

Despite having stepped down, Nazarbayev maintains vast influence over the country's politics. He is the head of the Nur Otan party, as well as the powerful Security Council and is titled "Elbasy", leader of the nation.

Despite the “uncompetitive campaign” qualifications made by the OSCE observers, the elections led to a notably increased presence in the number of opposition representatives in the Mazhilis. President Tokayev since then has reiterated his firm commitment to an incremental approach to political reforms by proposing more changes in areas such as lowering the threshold for smaller parties to obtain seats in parliament and the conduct of local elections.

--o--

ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN-RUSSIA

On January 11^th Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted a trilateral meeting in Moscow with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, nearly two months after a Russia-brokered cease-fire agreement ended six weeks of fierce fighting over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Trilateral meeting, Moscow, January 11th
©President of Russia Website

Following the talks, Putin, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan issued a joint statement on the Kremlin website announcing the creation of a trilateral working group to oversee the "unblocking of all economic and transport links" in the region.

Putin at the start of the meeting thanked the two leaders for their cooperation with Russia's mediation efforts aimed at "stopping the bloodshed, stabilizing the situation, and achieving a sustainable cease-fire."

Under a cease-fire agreement reached on November 9th, a chunk of Nagorno-Karabakh and all seven districts around it were placed under Azerbaijani administration after almost 30 years of control by ethnic Armenians. More than 4,700 people were killed in the flare-up of violence. Around 2,000 Russian peacekeepers are deployed along frontline areas and to protect a land link connecting Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. They are also engaged in demining, returning displaced Armenians, and rebuilding damaged infrastructure.

Many details of the agreement remain unclear, including the final political status of Nagorno-Karabakh, the exact contours of the border separating the two sides along a still militarized front line, and economic issues.

Pashinian said several issues remained unresolved, and that the meeting did not render a solution to the "most sensitive and painful question" of prisoners of war.

Armenia and Azerbaijan exchanged their first prisoners in early December, more than a month after the peace deal was signed. It remains unclear how many more prisoners the two sides intend to exchange.

The truce agreement envisages a Russian-guarded transport corridor running through southern Armenia to connect Azerbaijan to its enclave of Nakxchivan, and thereby to its regional ally, Turkey.

Prior to the January 11^th meeting, Putin consulted by telephone with President Macron about what was going to happen. Russia, France and the US are co-chairs of Minsk group that is in charge of finding a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. There was no similar call to the US President, likely on account of the US being in a transition period.

Many Armenians have blamed their own leader for the Nagorno-Karabakh fiasco. Some also accused Israel of having sold sophisticated weapons to Azerbaijan. Few seem to have wanted to see a link between the ongoing Macron-Erdogan spat and the unprecedented willingness of Turkey to support the military offensive of Azerbaijan against Armenia, a traditional friend of France. Few also seem to have seen the incapacity of the US to restrain Turkey, its NATO ally, from participating in military action against Armenia, a country that has close diaspora links with the US.

--o--

AZERBAIJAN AND RUSSIAGAS DEALS

Azerbaijan has started commercial natural-gas supplies to the European Union via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), as the region seeks to diversify energy supplies away from Russia. The 878-kilometer TAP is a segment of the Southern Gas Corridor, which took more than $30 billion and seven years to build. The overall project includes Shah Deniz 2, Azerbaijan’s largest gas deposit, and 3,500 kilometers of pipelines connecting the Caspian Sea with Western Europe via Georgia and Turkey.

Azerbaijan already supplies gas to Turkey and aims to supply European gas markets with 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas a year. Analysts say Azerbaijani gas poses some threat to Moscow's share of the continent's gas market but is unlikely to change Russia's dominant position as a supplier.

Russia, which already accounts for about one-third of the region’s gas supplies, plans to raise gas exports to Europe, including Turkey, to 183 bcm in 2021 from more than 170 bcm this year. Moscow has recently accelerated efforts to complete its undersea Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline to Germany, a project that stalled a year ago due to U.S. sanctions.

Under Trump, Washington has strongly opposed Nord Stream 2 as threatening the security of NATO allies in Europe by increasing dependence on Russia. President Biden has called it a bad idea but may be more willing to take German interests into consideration as well as less eager to export US shale gas.

--o--

UKRAINE-MOLDOVA

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with his Moldovan counterpart Maia Sandu in Kyiv on January 12th. The leaders of Moldova and Ukraine have called for rebooting ties as the two neighbors pursue a pro-EU agenda and fend off territorial disputes with Russia-backed forces. This was President Sandu’s first official visit abroad. Sandu was inaugurated last month following her victory in an election against the Russia-backed incumbent Igor Dodon on a pro-EU and anti-corruption platform.

Presidents Sandu and Zelenskyy, Kyiv, January 12th
©President of Ukraine Website

Under Dodon, Moldova's relations with its neighbors Ukraine and Romania had been largely frozen. Since her election, Sandu, a former World Bank economist, has called for the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Moscow-backed separatist region of Trans Dniester, prompting the Kremlin to issue warnings.

Speaking alongside Zelenskyy, the Moldovan leader spoke of a "resumption of friendship" with Ukraine. For his part, Zelenskyy also called on the European Union to help Ukraine and Moldova obtain Western-produced coronavirus vaccines.

--o--

PERSON OF THE MONTH: JOSEPH ROBINETTE BIDEN JR, TAKE 2

Joe Biden deserved being person of the month for becoming President-elect Biden. President Biden deserves being person of the month for the transformation that he has gone through from an at-times bumbling candidate to a surprisingly active, engaging and humorous president. In his usual insult-throwing manner, Donald Trump used to call him “Sleepy Joe. No more! President Biden has issued executive orders to do away with as much of the Trump legacy as possible as well as to fulfill specific electoral promises, including reversing the permit for the Keystone pipeline. He has tackled the pandemic issue head on. Collegial President Biden has surrounded himself with an impressive group of experienced professionals who obviously will have both the authority and the capacity to do the heavy lifting. His appointees at State, Defence and Treasury have already been overwhelmingly confirmed by a divided Senate. He has already been calling world leaders even having a potentially difficult conversation with Vladimir Putin positively assessed by the Kremlin. He also managed to assemble and guide an inaugural committee to produce a ceremony that will probably go down as one of the best, even in times of a pandemic and enhanced security threats. Freed from the pressure of performing as a candidate Biden has turned into a far more effective manager than his campaign performance would have suggested. There is of course a lot more to do, but the first weeks of the Biden presidency are refreshingly upbeat.

--o--

BRIEFLY NOTED

BELARUS

Belarus, that was to co-host with Latvia the ice hockey world championship in May-June of this year, lost the event essentially because of strongman Aleksandr Lukashenko’s ongoing crackdown on protesters who dispute the August 2020 election that kept him in power.

Many European countries, including Latvia, had been calling for the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) to cancel Minsk’s involvement over the violent crackdown, as well as fears that Lukashenko's government has failed to control the coronavirus pandemic and is underreporting cases and deaths. Along with a few other key sponsors, Czech carmaker Skoda Auto also had announced it would be pulling its sponsorship of the event if it were to be held in Belarus.

MONGOLIA

The next three to six months will be crucial to the future of the vast Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine in Mongolia, as the companies behind the operation engage in talks to find a way to improve the government’s financial benefits from an ongoing underground expansion.

That deal is commonly known in Mongolia as the “Dubai agreement” because the nation’s then Prime Minister Chimediin Saikhanbileg struck it with former Rio Tinto’s boss Jean-Sebastien Jacques in a Dubai hotel, ending an impasse that had lasted close to three years.

According to a senior government official, “It is calculated that Mongolia will not receive dividend payments until 2051 and will incur debts of $22 billion. In addition, Oyu Tolgoi is estimated to pay profit taxes or corporate income taxes only in four years until 2051.”

TURKMENISTAN

Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, the eccentric president of Turkmenistan, has claimed on television that the herb licorice might hold the answer to the cure for COVID-19 and has ordered scientists to work on a medicine.

Berdymukhammedov ordered the country's Academy of Sciences to "carefully study" the herb's "antiviral effects," adding that Turkmenistan has sufficient reserves of licorice "to produce medicine." He went on to say that the licorice root had long been used to treat "internal diseases, coughs, kidney diseases, upper respiratory problems, and stomach ulcers."

The secretive Turkmen government has not reported a single coronavirus infection in the country and prevents doctors from diagnosing any patient with COVID-19. Medical sources have been quoted in many media reports as saying that hospitals across Turkmenistan are full of patients with pneumonia and other symptoms that patients with COVID-19 would have.

VACCINATION, PRACTICE AND POLITICS FOOTNOTE

In one way or the other the long history of vaccines had some political connotations. In the end of the 18th century Russian society, in many ways like most European countries, was categorically against smallpox immunization. Catherine the Great, the Russian Empress, was the first person to be variolated (as the process was known at the time) in order to show the example to her subjects. French philosopher Voltaire wrote to Catherine that she showed exceptional political courage that would save millions of lives. Since that time, the vaccination has always been politicized. We see it now when the European Union insists that its members should be first in line for vaccine deliveries. Canada has become a victim of such an approach. Many countries are working on development of their own vaccines. There are 10 vaccines registered in one form or another. There are more than 60 other vaccines in active development. The need to put aside political disagreements and to increase cooperation both in development of the vaccines and their fair distribution around the world has been broadly acknowledged in principle. Practice has not always followed. That vaccination should not become politicized is probably the main lesson to be learnt. It should also be acknowledged though that public health policy and practices will have an impact on the efficiency of the process. Examples below illustrate this.

Russians are already being inoculated with the Sputnik-V vaccine after it was approved by Moscow in August despite a lack of large-scale clinical trials and perceived shortcomings in data to support its safety and efficacy. Since then, the Sputnik V vaccine has been approved in 15 more countries, including EU member Hungary. The process to approve the vaccine in the EU has been initiated.

Israel has rolled out the fastest Covid-19 vaccination campaign in the world, inoculating nearly 25% of its population in under a month with the Pfizer vaccine. The small country, with roughly 9 million people, about the same as New York City, now aims to inoculate most of its population by March.

If Israel begins to see the impact of the vaccination, with no resurgence of Covid-19 cases in the coming months, this will provide a gold standard for other countries worldwide. However, with its smaller geography and population size, its pro-vaccine culture, its universal health care and digitalised medical system Israel finds itself having virtually all the comparative advantages.

There are also reports that Israel paid cash and a premium for early access. Even more important in securing access seems to have been the willingness to share freely some vaccination data with Pfizer.

--o--

THE AUTHORS

Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe. Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, has become a textbook on relations of media and society.

During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.

Gilles Breton also currently serves as Chairman of the National Board of the Canada-Eurasia-Russia Business Association. The views expressed in this newsletter exclusively reflect the opinion of the authors.

Monday, November 30, 2020

Issue 48

TRUMP RECEIVED THE MOST VOTES EVER FOR A LOSER

As most Canadians were hoping, Joe Biden won the presidential election. Donald Trump’s undemocratic refusal to concede his loss as well as his baseless accusations of fraud will not change the result, but will have a long-term impact by eroding the trust of his hard-core supporters in what should still be a democratic transition. The inappropriate or damaging decisions that he has already made in his first lame-duck month are of serious concern in themselves as well as they foretell even more similar un-hinged actions in the next seven weeks or so. There is also another less broadly discussed feature of this election that should be of concern to Democrats: the losing candidate received more votes than any winning candidate in the past.

At almost 70% of the eligible electorate and 15% more than 2016, the turnout was high by US standards. Campaigns to encourage citizens to vote were effective and seem to have increased the numbers on both sides. This leaves political observers to speculate as to why Trump received so many votes. (The lack of accuracy of polls is a separate matter. Persistent methodology flaws and inaccurate samplings seem to be part of the problem.)

President Trump pardoning a Thanksgiving turkey, November 24th
© Facebook

The regional split was as expected with the Northeast and the West Coast going to Biden and the Midwest and most of the Deep South going for Trump, along historical lines virtually going back to the Civil War in some cases. As expected, younger, women, urban, minority and educated segments of the vote favoured Biden. Older (above 50), men, rural, less educated, and white segments favoured Trump. Wealthier Americans voted for Trump, less affluent voters for Biden, also as expected. Exit polls suggest that Trump supporters were more influenced by the issues than the personality of the candidates, or at least claimed this to be the case. Despite his personal flaws, Trump managed to galvanize the conservative segment of the electorate well beyond his base. Exit polls also suggest that Trump recruited supporters in the upper middle-class that has benefited from the pre-pandemic economic growth. It is worth observing that Trump seems to have been able to convince many wealthier middle-class Americans that he was responsible for their better economic situation. Some tax measures may have played a role, but Trump constantly inflating his real influence over economic growth seems to have been taken at face value. Trump himself seems to have believed his message and could not resist coming out to claim that the Dow-Jones’ major rise after the confirmation of the Biden victory belonged to his administration.

Trump may still think of running again in 2024. For now, his concern seems to focus on building up a slush fund that he can freely draw from to support his future public involvement. The fact is that he may have a lot of things to worry about other than the presidency in the next for years, including possible criminal prosecution.

As for Trumpism, it is probably better understood as conservatism on steroids. As a foul-mouthed, populist snake-oil salesman Trump did not create a political movement but took advantage of existing political dispositions. His influence worked on older voters and may be limited in time. Besides, the emerging stars of the Republican Party do not seem to have that kind of “leadership” potential.

BUT JOE BIDEN RECEIVED MORE VOTES THAN ANY PREVIOUS WINNER

As for the Democrats they managed to muster a record number of votes for a lackluster candidate on account of his mainstream positions and of the despicable features of his adversary.

The Democrats failed though to gain control of the Senate where they will have to win the two open seats in Georgia to break even with the Republicans and be able to use the deciding vote of the Vice-President to win majority decisions. They also managed to keep control of the House, but with some losses for which their aging leadership should take responsibility.

The conflict between Joe Biden moderates and Bernie Sanders progressives was brushed over to get rid of Donald Trump but is still essentially unresolved. Trump’s attempts to brand the Democrats as socialists did not stick to Joe Biden, but it reveals the continuing reluctance of middle-of-the-road Americans to espouse more radical state intervention policies, for instance, to address economic inequalities or climate change. It leaves President-elect Biden to devise compromise policies that risk pleasing no one completely.

DEMOCRATIC TRANSITIONS AND BACK TO THE FUTURE

As is customary, foreign policy was not a major issue during the election, but the consequences of a political transition are having serious foreign policy implications. Trump’s revengeful disposition is causing him to implement his own isolationist policies that even his Republican allies would not support, for instance, disengagement in Iraq and Afghanistan, regardless of consequences. President-elect Biden will likely manage to reverse the steps taken by Trump but will face a more complicated task.

The appointments President-elect Biden has announced for his foreign policy team have been greeted by the mainstream media as the return of experienced professionals. To Trump’s supporters, that will mean the victory of the “deep state” that was so inimical to Trump’s America First approach. While it was refreshing to see Antony Blinken, the nominee for Secretary of State, refer to past mistakes in the specific context of Syria, it is not evident that new team will want to move away from the policies of the Obama era. It will, however, be more adept at crisis management.

The one area where Donald Trump’s departure may have a more immediate effect is the reassessment of the Russian disinformation campaign in the context of the 2016 election and even the Brexit campaign. With partisanship no longer a factor, a more balanced view may come to prevail in assessing the Steele dossier that cast Trump as a Russian agent as well as the allegations that Russia funded the Brexit camp. That has already begun in some media. The fact that the 2020 election was found by the competent officials to be the safest in US history, that is free of foreign interference, may also move the debate along. This is not to jump to the conclusion that the Biden administration will be easy on Russia, au contraire, but that it will most likely take a predictable objective-based approach to Russia rather than alternating between hot and cold and upsetting traditional allies in the process. It will also imply a fresh look at the traditional disarmament infrastructure which had no interest for the Trump administration.

This still leaves wide open the question of how the Biden administration will deal with China, other than to wish for a modern George Kennan to emerge that could provide the intellectual framework to deal with the People’s Republic as the original Kennan did for the Soviet Union in 1947.

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UKRAINE WINS AN OLD FRIEND

To the Ukrainian government the election of Joe Biden is relatively good news. Biden knows Ukraine better than any other president. He has been closely involved with US policy in Ukraine. Besides, the Ukrainian president did not acquiesce to Donald Trump’s request to investigate Joe Biden’s son’s activity in Ukraine. Biden should be a true friend of Ukraine. Yet, the impact may not be that great. Earlier on during the Poroshenko presidency, Ukraine’s priority was to acquire US weaponry it could use against the rebel regions of Eastern Ukraine. At present, President Zelensky’s immediate priority is to keep the cease-fire going. US military support is significant, but not the priority it used to be. US economic support in the form of technical assistance programs is important, but more a long-term endeavour. Financial assistance is coming mostly from the IMF, but Ukraine has recently received a negative response from the IMF for emergency assistance.

Ukraine’s persistent difficulty in getting money from the IMF is essentially linked to the fight against corruption, the very same reason for which Joe Biden insisted that the then corrupt Procurator General be fired in 2015. Biden could not be counted to influence other public lenders to be more lenient or to lessen their standards when it comes to fighting corruption. He could be counted to support President Zelenskyy’s efforts in this respect, but that battle is an internal one over which outsiders have limited influence other than in withholding financial assistance.

President Zelenskyy at the National Council on Anticorruption Policy, November 27th
© President of Ukraine Website

At a more global level, US support is more relevant for eventual NATO for Ukraine, another long-term objective. For economic reasons, more crucial at this point is Ukraine’s relationship with the EU. As noted above, the Biden administration will not be softer on Russia, but could well engage in a more consistent dialogue. On the Ukrainian side, US support is certainly valued, but it does not mean that Ukraine would want to inject now more than before a US-Russia dimension to the essentially European negotiations with Russia. The other negotiating partners, Germany and France would likely share the same view.

COVID-19 IMPACT

President Zelenskyy at the Military Medical Center of the Eastern Region, November 26th
© President of Ukraine Website

Other than to explain why Ukraine matters in geopolitical terms, the other challenge of covering Ukraine is to strike the right balance in qualifying the political and economic situation without falling into overly far-reaching general statements about, for instance, widespread corruption, the lack of economic growth, the demographic decline or the dire state of public finances. It is necessary to add that not everybody in Ukraine is corrupt, the country still has lot of staying power and life can still go on as normal. The situation of COVID-19 in Ukraine further enhances the challenge. The official figures suggest that the situation is very difficult, but as in many other countries the official figures only reflect a part of the reality. The conclusion is that the worse is yet to come, but that ultimately the country will manage to make it till free vaccines become available through the WHO/Covax initiative sometime in 2021. The extent of the damage could, however, be more serious than in the rest of the region.

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NAGORNO-KARABAKH: WHY AZERBAIJAN WON

Joseph Stalin (who by the way had a hand in creating various ethno-geographical conflicts within the USSR, including this one) famously stated in 1941 after Germany invaded his country: "There are no undefeated armies". He was right.

It took Azerbaijan just 43 days to crush the Armenian-backed Nagorno-Karabakh army and regain its territory around the breakaway region, seven districts of mountains and foothills that had been occupied by Armenian separatists since Baku’s humiliating defeat of the early 1990s.

There are several key factors why Azerbaijan was so successful in the battlefield this time: technology, tactics, and Turkey. We can also add to this Russia's guarded support for Armenia during the crisis and total political miscalculation of Armenian leadership of the geopolitical realities in the region.

It was evident to anyone who followed the conflict that it was Turkish support for Azerbaijan that made the war qualitatively different from all previous confrontations.

The presence of Turkish F-16 fighter jets at a military airfield in Ganja, Azerbaijan’s second-largest city, was the direct proof that the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus had shifted in Azerbaijan’s favor. The second largest army within NATO was openly directing the war in Nagorno-Karabakh.

While Azerbaijan has not released casualty figures for its troops (we can assume it is 2-3 thousand soldiers), it has made no secret about its use of the latest high-tech drones it purchased from Turkey and Israel to carry out air strikes and battlefield reconnaissance.

Armenians who fought in 1993-94 and followed the more recent events had to admit that this time around the war was very different. Armenian forces lacked adequate sensors, electronic warfare cover, or counter-drone weaponry to defend against Azerbaijan’s Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Armenian forces were quickly forced into undisciplined withdrawal from the frontline positions they had been fortifying along the “line of contact” since a 1994 cease-fire.

Baku had used its oil and gas revenues to purchase a variety of diverse and modern weapons from Turkey, Israel, and Spain. The Armenians were armed mostly by aging Russian equipment and since Armenia is much poorer than Azerbaijan they found out in a hard way what it meant to be up against the 21st century weaponry, targeting systems, electronic jamming of communications and rapid development of special forces.

Here is just one curious example. Azerbaijan managed to draw out and expose the Armenian air defenses by sacrificing an air fleet of Soviet-designed Antonov AN-2 biplanes that it purchased from Ukraine.

Designed in the late 1940s, those Soviet-era biplanes are now mostly used as crop dusters or to fight forest fires. They are widely considered as “unusable” in modern combat. Baku fitted its Antonov AN-2s out so they could be piloted by remote control at low altitudes over the Armenian air defenses. They prepared camouflage to make them look like drones. The Armenians posted videos of what they thought were drones being shot down by their air defenses. In reality what was happening was that whenever the Armenians hit an AN-2 with its air defenses, the real Azerbaijani surveillance drones at higher altitudes were able to identify their positions precisely and easily destroy all of these air defenses.

From the point of view of diplomacy Russia played the conflict masterfully. Putin did not like the way Pashinyan came to power, as the result of 'street protests', but in the end could not withhold his support for Armenia. In the early days following his appointment, Pashinyan may have been inclined to pursue a negotiated settlement with Azerbaijan. He, however, could not resist the weight of a public opinion that strongly rejected any concession and even supported the idea of making Nagorno-Karabakh an independent state, along the Kosovo model. The latter could not have been greeted well in Moscow. Russia always maintained that it would come to the aid of Armenia only if the conflict would spill into Armenia itself, reminding the world (and Armenia) that it considers Nagorno-Karabakh an Azerbaijani territory. However, as soon as Azeri military victory was in no doubt, Russia stepped in and secured a ceasefire which is being maintained by 2,000 Russian peacekeepers all along the 'line of contact'. Putin could not restrain from criticizing Armenia from conceding too slowly, thus losing the key city of Shusha to Azeri forces. Russia also managed to keep Turkish army out of the core area of Karabakh and proved to the international community that the Kremlin still wields serious power in the Caucasus.

The initial frustration of Armenians with Russia’s unwillingness to defend Nagorno-Karabakh now seems to have been replaced with a sense that ultimately Russia was the saviour. It should not be overlooked that Armenia’s other friends, France and the US, were not in a position to assist by, at a minimum, exercising some influence over Turkey, their NATO ally with which they currently have a tortuous relationship.

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ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN SITUATION UPDATE

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met in Yerevan with Armenian Prime Minister Nicol Pashinyan on November 21st to discuss the implementation of the Russian-brokered truce in the war over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Shoigu told Pashinyan that Russian peacekeepers deployed to monitor the truce have “covered almost the entire territory” of Azerbaijan’s breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh since the truce was signed on November 10.

Shoigu also said Russian troops were “ensuring the return of refugees,” adding that “peaceful life has already been established.”

After meeting with Armenian officials in Yerevan, the high-ranking Russian government delegation traveled to Baku for meetings with Azerbaijani officials.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev says his troops have taken control of the first of three districts bordering Nagorno-Karabakh as part of the Russian-brokered peace agreement that ended a six-week war with Armenian forces over the breakaway region.

The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry said on November 20th that its units entered the Agdam district, one of three ringing Nagorno-Karabakh that are to be handed over to Azerbaijan after nearly three decades under Armenian control.

Crowds of people carrying national flags gathered in the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, to celebrate the handover of Agdam as Aliyev announced "major" plans for the district. The chief of staff of the Russian peacekeeping task force in Nagorno-Karabakh said the handover operation was carried out without incident.

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BELARUS: SEARCH FOR CONVENIENT OPPOSITION

Seven European countries that are not members of the EU have aligned themselves with the sanctions imposed by the 27-member bloc on Belarus in response to a brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protests triggered by a disputed presidential election in August. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in a statement on November 20th that the seven countries included EU candidates North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Albania, as well as Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Ukraine.

Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus for 26 years, has faced almost daily protests calling for his resignation since the August 9th presidential election, which the opposition says was rigged and the West has refused to recognize. Several protesters have been killed and thousands of people arrested since authorities declared the Belarusian strongman the landslide winner of the vote. There have also been credible reports of torture during a widening security crackdown. Most of the country's opposition leaders have been arrested or forced to flee the country, while dozens of reporters have been jailed.

Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister recently visited Minsk and had some unusual meetings. Apart from traditional niceties with the “ostracized by the world” President Lukashenko, Lavrov met several leaders of industrial and financial sectors. Some of them are known for a tacit opposition to the never-ending rule of Lukashenko while continuing to be loyal to Moscow and the so-called "Union State" between Russian and Belarus. Most observers have interpreted Lavrov's visit as a final attempt to find an opposition leader who would be suitable for the Kremlin. It looks like Lavrov prefers Vladimir Makei, the current Foreign Affairs Minister of Belarus. He is known for having good relations with the political establishments of France and Germany while continuing to be trusted by Moscow.

Lavrov himself has yet to issue an official backing of this potential candidate.

One thing, however, is clear: Moscow is ready to part with Alexander Lukashenko.

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IRAN

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif says Tehran would return to full compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal if U.S. President-elect Joe Biden lifts crippling sanctions against the country. Zarif said in a November 17th interview with the government daily that Tehran remains committed to the nuclear accord, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and that Biden could make the changes quickly through “three executive orders.”

In recent months, Iran has gradually reduced its commitments under the deal in response to U.S. sanctions reimposed after U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the accord in 2018. Iran has complained that it is not benefiting economically from the nuclear deal under which the country significantly limited its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

Biden has said he would work with the other powers involved, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China, as well as the EU, to amend aspects of the agreement once Iran is back in compliance.

On November 27th an Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who many called the “father of the Iranian nuclear program”, sort of an Iranian version of Oppenheimer was assassinated in a daylight attack on his car.

Fakhrizadeh is the fifth Iranian nuclear expert to be assassinated in the past decade. A series of bombing and shooting attacks that Iran also blamed on Israel killed two experts in 2010, a third in 2011 and a fourth in 2012. Israel similarly neither confirmed nor denied a role in those killings.

It is rather evident that only two countries in the world have both capacity and motive to carry out this type of an attack: US and Israel. The question is was it a joint operation or Israel went ahead and did it all by itself?

Condemnation of the attack came not only from the usual allies of Iran like Syria and Venezuela but from the EU because the scientist was not a combatant (like for example the late head of the Revolutionary Guard Soleimani).

In an April 2018 televised presentation about the nuclear archive Mossad stole from a warehouse in Tehran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu named Fakhrizadeh as a leading figure in what he described as secret nuclear weapons work conducted under the guise of a civilian program.

Israel obviously is a prime suspect as the Jewish state is in the de facto state of war with the Islamic Republic and has the most to fear from the Iranian nuclear bomb, especially in light of Iranian threats against Israel.

Iran almost immediately pointed its finger at Israel and the United States and vowed “painful revenge”.

It is becoming clear even to an average Iranian citizen that Israel's secret service runs circles around Iranian security with one successful operation after another. Many Iranians expressed similar sentiments in their tweets after the attack. This situation points to a dysfunctional Iranian system, corruption, and a likely demoralized scientific community.

The timing of the attack was telling as well. It took place during the problematic transition between the Trump and Biden administrations and amid suggestions from the President-elect that he was basically open to re-enter the nuclear agreement with Iran (providing further concessions from Tehran). This is an unacceptable scenario for the outgoing Trump administration, Israel, Saudi Arabia and most Sunni states in the region.

If Iran rushes and launches some form of retaliation right away, it may ruin any chances of reaching a deal with an undoubtedly more friendly administration in Washington and if it sits back it will demonstrate weakness. Therefore, Iranian president chose the old and trusted “we will retaliate at the time and place of our choosing” tactic. The Iranian regime must be in a state of paralysis with the mounting pressure of the street demanding action and not mere words. Let us not forget that this assassination took place after a series of powerful and deadly Israeli attacks on Iranian targets in Syria.

The pressure from inside is rising and this time around Iran, against all logic, may choose a direct attack on some Israel targets just to save face with its own population and this may be exactly what Israel and the outgoing president Trump want.

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PERSON OF THE MONTH:

JOSEPH ROBINETTE BIDEN JR

After trying for half a lifetime, 78-year old Joe Biden will become US President in January 2021. A professional politician with a moderately liberal record, he shared Irish heritage and Roman Catholic faith with the Kennedys, but never managed to build a comparable political machine or to achieve a similar political stature despite his 36 years in the US Senate. This may have to do with hailing from a small state, but certainly also with his less inspiring or less charismatic personality.

As Barack Obama’s vice-president, Joe Biden met and even exceeded the normal expectations set for that job. He was not only supportive, but took on some difficult tasks in the post-recession environment where he could use the conciliation and negotiating skills he has honed in the US Senate. His success as second-in command probably even reinforced the image of team player rather than that of a leader.

Joe Biden has no qualms about displaying his strong religious beliefs or referring to the personal tragedies that he has encountered. Especially, through the latter he genuinely conveys the image of a compassionate leader, in striking contrast with his predecessor. Despite his middle name that evokes a French Huguenot heritage, he likes to describe himself only as Irish American, a safer political bet.

Because of his years in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and his extensive foreign travel, Joe Biden will be the modern-day president with the broadest foreign policy experience. While he may not use that experience to innovate, he will be a re-assuring presence in the leadership position.

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BRIEFLY NOTED

RUSSIA/COVID-19

Russia recently registered record numbers for daily infections and deaths from the coronavirus, a few days after having passed 2 million cases. Health officials reported more than 25,000 cases for several days, bringing the national total to over 2 million cases and more than 35,000 fatalities since the beginning of the year.

While those figures suggest a lower death rate than elsewhere in the world, they need to be treated with caution. The official Russian death toll only includes those in which COVID has been established as the primary cause of death after an autopsy.

Data published by Russia's federal statistics service earlier this month indicated excess deaths of more than 117,000 year-on-year between March and September, suggesting that virus fatalities could be much higher.

Russian President Vladimir Putin described the surge in infections and deaths as "alarming." He acknowledged that several regions were experiencing medicine shortages and long waiting times for ambulances, but said authorities were in control of the situation. There is also reason to hope that Russia’s already available vaccines could be as effective as the ones developed in Western Europe and the US.

UNITED STATES/ISRAEL

A Jewish American man jailed in 1985 for spying for Israel was released from strict parole conditions Friday in accordance with applicable federal guidelines. Removal of conditions will allow him to move to Israel, the US Justice Department said.

Jonathan Pollard, a former Navy intelligence analyst, served 30 years for giving classified US documents and had been confined by parole terms to the United States since his release in 2015, despite Israeli pressure to allow him to leave.

Israel's October 1985 raid on the Palestinian Liberation Organization's Tunis headquarters that killed around 60 people was planned with information from Pollard, according to CIA documents declassified in 2012. Pollard was arrested in 1985 after trying unsuccessfully to gain asylum at the Israeli Embassy in Washington. His arrest had angered president Reagan and caused great deal of tension between Washington and Tel-Aviv and forced several top Israeli officials, including the head of spy agency Mossad, to resign.

RUSSIA 2

Russia’s lower house of parliament, the State Duma, has approved the first reading of a draft bill that would grant sweeping lifetime immunity to former presidents. The legislation is part of a package of constitutional amendments approved in a referendum this summer that could potentially see President Vladimir Putin stay in power until 2036.

The draft stipulates that any former head of state and their families obtain lifetime immunity from criminal or administrative charges. They also cannot be detained, arrested, searched, or interrogated. The only exception is for treason, which must first be approved by the State Duma and the Supreme and Constitutional courts.

Under the current law, former presidents are only immune from prosecution for crimes committed while in office.

The State Duma also passed a first reading of another bill that will grant ex-presidents a lifetime seat in the upper house of parliament, or the Federation Council, a position that also provides immunity from prosecution.

Outgoing US President Donald Trump was said to admire Putin. Now he will envy him.

RUSSIA (CHECHNYA)

Chechnya's authoritarian leader Ramzan Kadyrov has ordered images of American comic superheroes at children’s centers and playgrounds to be replaced with “real heroes” of the North Caucasus republic.

The November 20 announcement came after Kadyrov earlier this week visited a new high-rise residential complex in the city of Kurchaloy, where he criticized American comic and film figures painted on the walls of a children’s center.

"We need to remove the images of these fictional characters, these are fantasies,” Kadyrov said of the images of Captain America, Thor, Iron Man, and Superman during the November 16 tour of the new facility. “In the history of religion and people, there are many real heroes from whom you can and should take an example, otherwise children think that only these heroes exist.”

Kadyrov recently said that he had given orders to remove pictures of all such comic superheroes in children’s centers and playgrounds.

Ramzan Kadyrov has been accused by Russian and international rights activists of numerous human rights violations, including torture, kidnapping, disappearances, extrajudicial executions, and the assassination of personal and political enemies both in Russia and abroad.

TURKMENISTAN

The Central Asian nation's authoritarian President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, who heads one of the world's most oppressive governments, has unveiled a 6-meter-high golden statue of his favorite dog breed, the Alabay, an ancient livestock shepherd that is also used for protection.

State media reported that the statue is located in a complex of residential and cultural facilities in the capital where civil servants live.

The statue was dedicated to a dog that has "demonstrated respect and honor, exemplary courage and a cordial heart" to highlight "their role in the historical destiny of the nation," one news source said.

The president, who is often shown on state television as a musician, singer, horse rider, and military commando, has long promoted the Alabay breed, calling the dogs a national treasure.

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THE AUTHORS