THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER
THE
GREATEST LAME-DUCK PRESIDENT EVER?
Although
Democratic party supporters remain very nervous, it looks as though Joe Biden will
become the next President if the polls are right, if he can avoid mistakes
raising questions about his mental health and if he can hold on to Pennsylvania
and a few other nearby swing states such as Michigan and Wisconsin. For some
political observers who have looked at the historical voting patterns in these latter
states, the tendencies that we observe today take their origin in the ethno-cultural
make-up of the states and to features going back as far as the American
Revolution. Simply put, this is the long-standing confrontation between the Appalachia
and Yankee traditions.
Looking at
it this way, Donald Trump, for all his failings is not the first US president to
have been elected by a contribution from the Appalachia nation. The rebellious
gun-wielding anti-government tendency is far from a novelty.
Looking at
long-term voting patterns should also give some pause to those who raise the
issue of foreign intervention in US elections. The fact is that the US
electorate cannot be moved so easily by anything, neither the billions of
dollars that are spent by each camp or by the real but limited intrusions of
foreign actors such as Iran or Russia. You would know that Iran does prefer
Biden. As for Russia, it is now far from clear which candidate they would rather
have win the day.
As for what
really moves the electorate, the jury is still out. Some have seen Biden’s far-reaching
statement on fossil fuels as a blunder that would cost him votes in oil-rich
Texas and Pennsylvania. On the Republican side, some were furious with White
House Chief of Staff Mark McKinnon’s “surrender” statement on COVID-19. The
Republican rush to bring Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court so she can
decide on election cases may even have a negative impact on the electorate in
some states.
Donald
Trump has demonstrated his incapacity to formulate public policy beyond a few mostly
negative statements. If he loses the election, it may well be for his penchant
for holding rallies that feed his oversize narcissistic ego, but amount to preaching
to the converted while insulting every non-believer in sight. His statements
about the end of the pandemic do not help either. COVID-19 fears, antipathy to Trump
as well as his own insistence on voting problems may have been factors in the unprecedented
surge of advance voting. As the candidate with a strong base but one that is significantly
short of a majority, Trump stands to lose from a large turnout.
If he loses
the election, Trump may well engage in legal contestations in the states with
narrow margin victories for his opponent. Opponents genuinely fear he may have more
than occasional luck with the courts that he has packed with his supporters.
Yet, he could not easily overturn a clear public disavowal. Would he graciously
accept the negative verdict of public opinion? Most unlikely. The period
between the announcement of the definitive results and the inauguration of the
next president in January could be unusually painful, with Trump using every
trick in the book to seek retribution as well as protect his personal interests
and those of his close family.
--o--
NOT A CLASSICAL LOCAL CONFLICT
History
does not always play the major role in local conflicts.
Yet, in the
case of the permanent war between Armenia and Azerbaijan for Nagorno-Karabakh
since 1988, history could say "mea culpa" about that conflict.
In 1922 when
the Soviet Union was formed, Joseph Stalin who at that time was responsible for
the nationalities policy of the newly formed Communist Federation, surrounded the
Nagorno-Karabakh region, historically populated by Armenians for a thousand
years, by Azerbaijan territory. Stalin, hailing from neighbouring Georgia would
have known all the nuances of the long-standing ethnic rivalries in the Caucasus. “Divide
and Conquer” was a classic approach Bolsheviks took when it came to the ethnic question
within the USSR. As a result, only 16% of Nagorno-Karabakh was populated by
Azeris. The rest was a large Armenian majority. And let us not forget that only
7 years prior over a million Armenians were massacred by the Turks and their
allies (including Azeris).
Fast forwarding
the events to 1988, shortly before the USSR fell apart, Azeri population was
expelled from Nagorno-Karabakh by the Armenians. On top of that, Armenia
managed to occupy five additional agricultural areas as bargaining chips for
future negotiations with Azerbaijan. The Armenian goal was also to have a
corridor (called Lachin corridor) between Karabakh and Armenian proper. Altogether
Azerbaijan lost 20% of its territory by the time the ceasefire was achieved in
1994. Since then public opinion in both countries has prevented any meaningful
negotiation.
Today
Armenia is facing a well-prepared and well-armed Azerbaijan supported by Turkey
while Russia is not particularly enthusiastic in supporting its Armenian ally. As
a result, Armenia is currently on the losing end of the conflict. The failure
of the Moscow-negotiated ceasefire and then of the Washington-negotiated one
would seem to confirm that neither side is genuinely ready to stop fighting.
The Azerbaijan objective is to erode the Armenian position to a point where
Armenia will be ready to negotiate and may be ready for a new compromise arrangement.
Armenia can only try to resist and hope to delay Azerbaijan advance.
--o--
BELARUS REMAINS A GEOPOLITICAL RIDDLE FOR RUSSIA
For Russia,
for its tsar-president Vladimir Putin, the crisis in Belarus is of a
geopolitical nature. Moscow might not be openly stating its geopolitical
calculus, but in its eyes, the Belarus problem resembles the uprisings in
Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan and represents a similar problem in
the long run. So far though the Belarus turmoil is not of anti-Russia or
anti-Putin nature.
Whatever
the arguments we hear around the world by analysts that protests in Belarus are
not about geopolitics and more about popular grievances against President
Alexander Lukashenko, the issue will ultimately transform into a serious geopolitical
game.
On October
22nd, at the Valdai conference (this time virtually over zoom), Putin spoke
directly about Belarus. He insisted that no one from the outside should
interfere in Belarus affairs and suggested that some constitutional changes are
inevitable. He also compared people's anger in Belarus to popular street
protests in “developed Western democracies” (obviously hinting at Portland and
Seattle) and said that at least in Belarus no one gets shot in the back. Putin
also said that those among law enforcement involved in extreme violence must be
held accountable.
Russia, at
the same time, is not taking any chances. In fact, two months ago, Putin
announced the creation of a special “law enforcement reserve” for use in
Belarus should the situation get “out of control.”
The
Russians understand that an “Armenia-style” revolution in Belarus could
theoretically take place, but it would open the country more to Europe and
thereby create geopolitical dilemmas like those created in Ukraine before 2014.
Both Armenian PM Pashinyan (the war in Nagorno-Karabakh is not going too well
for Armenia) and President Lukashenko suddenly depend on Putin more than ever.
 |
| President Lukashenko at ceremony introducing the new Minister of the Interior, Ninsk October 30th ©President of Belarus Website |
For the
Russian leadership, events in Belarus are a continuation of the “revolutionary
tradition" that has been spreading
across the former Soviet space since the early 2000s. Russia would probably
replace Lukashenko with a wiser man, but after 25 years of one-man rule such
candidates are hard to come by. In Belarus, unlike military games in the
Caucasus where Russian military might may eventually be decisive, a more subtle
approach is required. One the one hand Russia is not ready to send 'little
green men' and on the other it can hardly afford the loss of such a strategic,
geopolitical piece as Belarus.
 |
| President Lukashenko in Slutsky region, October 23rd ©President of Belarus Website |
Unlike with
other leaders who lost or were about to lose their jobs, the offer of a
comfortable dacha in a Moscow suburb would not be enough to draw Lukashenko
away. He is opinionated, messianistic and still has too much energy. Rather than
retire him the other approach inspired by Vatican traditions would be to give
him a promotion to get rid of him. There is, however, only one position above
that of President of Belarus, President of a Belarus-Russia union. Lukashenko
would only agree to a position of real power and responsibility. Russia, having
had to contend with Lukashenko’s difficult behaviour for years could only give
him an honorific position. That leaves only one “peaceful” option, a constitutional
reform in Belarus that would take some power away from the president. That will
take time and may not be enough for the opposition forces. With the opposition
fully intent on continuing protests and strike actions, the end of the year
promises to be remarkably interesting.
--o--
UKRAINE UPDATE
Local
elections fiasco
For the
first time in the history of modern Ukraine, the local elections that were held
on October 25th meant something. As a result of administrative reforms intended
to achieve decentralization, local authorities will have greater power in
running local affairs. Local management issues are a common problem in
virtually all post-Soviet countries. For a country the size of Ukraine,
decentralization was both needed and overdue.
 |
| President Zelenskyy, October 25th, Kyiv ©President of Ukraine Website |
President
Zelenskyy and his political party, Servant of the People, decided to run their
candidates for these local elections to occupy fully the whole political space.
The result was a clear disaster with their candidates receiving around 25% of
the total vote. This is a major rebuttal for the President and his party in
terms of political credibility. The vote
was also an occasion for some opposition parties to consolidate their position.
Former President Poroshenko’s party emerged as the stronger nationalist entity
in Western regions and the pro-Russia party recovered some of the support it
has lost to Zelenskyy in the Southeastern regions. This could also set the
stage for a confrontation pattern between the central government in Kyiv and
the local authorities. It could complicate even further the implementation of
the political and economic reforms that are promoted by Zelenskyy in order to
weed out corruption, not that local managers are more corrupt, but that they
will reject control from the center.
To
complicate matters even further for Zelenskyy, in late October the
Constitutional Court invalidated a law that criminalised false income declarations
by public officials. The law was considered as an essential instrument to fight
corruption. The integrity of the Constitutional Court was called into question,
some observing that some of its members were not entitled to take part on the
decision and that some were in conflict of interest situations.
At the same
time, the Prime Minister expressed the view that Ukraine and the IMF were moving
closer in their discussions over the fulfillment by Ukraine of the commitment
that would open the door to further IMF financial assistance. This would
include anti-corruption measures.
The
emergence of opposition locally elected officials as well as the backtracking
of judicial institutions illustrate the difficulties confronting Zelenskyy in
carrying out reforms even though he is proceeding with the best intentions and
started with a strong popular mandate.
Differences
of opinion between central and local authorities also seem to play a part in
Ukraine’s less than perfect management of COVID-19. Here, there is no second
wave but still a first wave that keeps getting bigger. There would also seem to
exist some difficulties in having a clear picture of the real situation.
Referendum
or glorified opinion poll
 |
| President Zelenskyy in Chernivtsi, October 2nd ©Presdient of Ukraine Website |
As an aside
and almost as a distraction, President Zelenskyy had also added a five-question
referendum/opinion poll to the local ballots. For four of the five questions,
he received a positive answer. Questions follow with the percentage of Yes
answers.
1. The possibility of introducing life
imprisonment for corruption of a particularly large scale, 81%
2. The need to introduce a free
economic zone in Donbas, 45%
3. The need to downsize the Verkhovna
Rada of Ukraine from 450 to 300 deputies, 95%
4. The possibility of legalizing
medical cannabis in Ukraine to alleviate pain of critically ill patients, 70%
5. The need to raise the issue of using
the security guarantees set out in the Budapest Memorandum at the international
level to restore its state sovereignty and territorial integrity, 78%
The idea of
asking these questions was met with less than unanimous support. It may have
been intended to bring in more young voters to participate. It probably turned
out as a sign of indecisiveness and a feeble and unnecessary attempt to involve
people.
Who is to blame?
Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says those who allowed Russia to illegally annex
Crimea in early 2014 must be held responsible. In an annual address to
parliament on October 20, Zelenskyy did not name anyone in particular, but
appeared to be taking clear aim at officials who assumed power after mass
anti-government protests toppled Russia-friendly President Viktor Yanukovych in
late February 2014.
 |
| Presdeient Zelenskyy addressing the Rada, October 20th ©President of Ukraine Website |
Zelenskyy also
said that his government supports the idea of an amnesty for "the millions
of our compatriots, who have no blood on their hands and remain hostage"
in Crimea and the districts of Donbas that remain under Russia-backed
separatists' control.
--o--
Fifty-three
years ago, in September of 1967 in Khartoum (Sudan), shortly after Israel
needed only 6 days to defeat armies of Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon and
troops from Saudi Arabia and Yemen in one of the most memorable wars of the
20th century, the Arab League had pronounced the so-called "Three No's": "no peace with
Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it..."
The first Arab
country to break the declaration was Egypt in 1979 as it established diplomatic
relations with Israel for the return of Sinai peninsula, Jordan followed in
1994 and in 2020 three more Arab states had changed no’s to yes: the United
Arab Emirates, Bahrain and finally Sudan.
As the
world battles Covid-19 and the massive economic recession, the significance of
the peace deals has hardly been noticed. Beyond the reluctance to give credit
to Donald Trump and his administration, there may be an understanding that some
of the deals confirmed a de facto situation and do not resolve the central
conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.
--o--
RUSSIA: WHERE SHOULD THE MONEY GO?
Russia's
Defense Ministry says it has rejected austerity measures proposed by the
Finance Ministry, such as reducing the number of military personnel.
In a
proposal submitted to Russia's Security Council earlier this month, the Finance
Ministry suggested cutting the country's military personnel by 10 percent,
which would amount to some 100,000 members of the armed forces, the Izvestia
newspaper reported on October 20th.
The ministry proposed that some of those officers would be given civilian posts instead. It also suggested raising the number of years of service required to receive a military pension.
However,
the Defense Ministry argued that similar moves in the past showed their
"inefficiency" and led to "numerous problematic issues affecting
the combat capacity of the Armed Forces."
In a
statement carried by Krasnaya Zvezda, its official newspaper, the ministry said
it had sent its position to the Security Council "on the unacceptability
of these proposals and the absence of support for them from the leadership of
the military department."
The Defense
Ministry insisted that the Finance Ministry's proposal to slash the number of
military posts would have "'zero' economic effect."
Kremlin
spokesman Dmitry Peskov said no decision had been made on the matter.
The Russian
Finance Ministry’s proposals come amid a worldwide recession brought on by the
coronavirus pandemic.
According
to the International Monetary Fund's latest economic outlook released last
week, the Russian economy is expected to plunge 4.6 percent this year before
rebounding 3.9 percent in 2021.
Russia last
year increased its annual military expenditures by 4.5 percent to $65.1
billion, making it the world's fourth-largest military spender, according to
the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
--o--
RUSSIA’S FAR-OUT THINKERS
Russian
Archpriest Dmitry Smirnov, known for his controversial public statements that
led to public outcry and criticism, has died at the age of 69. Vasily Rulinsky,
the press secretary of the Russian Orthodox Church, announced the death on
October 21st. He did not mention the cause but most likely it was Covid-19. The
priest contracted the virus several months ago.
Smirnov was
known for his controversial positions, including his call to bless nuclear
weapons, which he described as the "salvation of the Russian people and
its culture."
He also
called on believers to give all their earnings to the Russian Orthodox church
and advised single Russian women to "look for husbands in Africa."
He called
women living together with their partners «unpaid prostitutes."
Just before
Smirnov was hospitalized with COVID-19 he called the pandemic "an
extremely useful phenomenon," because, he said, people started
"caring more about their loved ones and better understand Christian
values."
In August,
following public criticism of his statements, Smirnov was removed from the
position of Chairman of the Russian Orthodox Patriarch’s Commission on the
Family, becoming its Honorary Chairman instead.
--o--
KAZAKHSTAN
Kazakh
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has set the date of elections for the lower
house of parliament, or Majlis, for January 10th, 2021. The decree, signed on
October 21, paves the way for the energy-rich Central Asian country’s first
parliamentary elections since Tokayev in 2019 succeeded Nursultan Nazarbayev,
who resigned that year after nearly three decades in power.
Nazarbayev
still maintains key positions of power, including head of the country’s
Security Council and ruling Nur Otan party.
International election observers say that past elections in Kazakhstan have failed to meet agreed standards, citing electoral fraud, repression of opposition candidates, and restrictions on the freedom of the press.
The
107-seat Majlis is currently dominated by Nazarbayev’s Nur Otan party, which
has 84 deputies. The pro-government Communist People’s Party of Kazakhstan and
the liberal Ak Zhol party each have seven seats. The remaining nine seats are
appointed by the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan, an advisory body
controlled by Nazarbayev.
The last
parliamentary elections were held in March 2016.
--o--
KYRGYZSTAN
Kyrgyzstan's
Central Election Commission has set December 20th as the date for new
parliamentary elections after an October 4th vote was annulled following public
protests that ousted the government and the parliament speaker and led to the
resignation of President Sooronbai Jeenbekov.
After
Jeenbekov's resignation in early October, lawmakers elected Sadyr Japarov, a
former nationalist lawmaker and convicted kidnapper, who was released from
prison by the protesters on October 6th, as the new prime minister and handed
presidential powers to him on October 16th.
According
to the law, early elections must be held no later than three months after the
president’s resignation. Japarov cannot take part in the election as the
current legislation does not allow acting presidents to seek office.
--o--
BELARUS, ON THE GROUND
Hundreds of
people have been detained by police in Belarus since post-election protests
swept the country. The new target of the authorities: lawyers. Attorneys who
have been hired or have volunteered to defend detainees and opposition leaders
struggle not only to handle huge caseloads, but also the formidable hurdles
they say authorities are placing in their way.
Protesters
are facing increasingly phantasmagorical and utterly fabricated charges,
lawyers say, as Aleksandr Lukashenka clings to power amid growing public
opposition, international isolation, and sanctions imposed following the
disputed August 9th presidential election that official results say he won in a
landslide.
The lawyers find themselves circumventing obstacles, such as scrambling to get
to court after being given only a moment's notice that their client's case is
being heard, and working under the threat that they, too, may run into
trouble with the authorities.
Many
lawyers say they face disbarment, detention, or even arrest for their work with
the opposition.
--o--
PERSON OF THE MONTH: ABRAHAM KAREM
In the
absence of a personality that would stand up for his or her positive
contribution, the person of the month title goes to a person who has through
his inventions transformed modern warfare. It is also an occasion to observe on
the growing impersonal nature of military killing as well as to the relative
indifference to extra-judicial executions.
From the
barefooted Houthis rebels in Yemen, rugged militants in Gaza, various militias
in Syria to the most advanced militaries in the world-all of them rely on the
use drones or (UAV's unmanned aerial vehicles). The drones have transformed the
battlefield (and like a lot of military-based technologies found their use in
many civilian projects) and have made spying and killing even more effective.
The latest
examples of the effectiveness of drone technology can be seen in the American
assassination of the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard chief Soleimani by
means of the 'Reaper' drone and series of precision hits by the Azeri military
against Armenian targets with the help of Israeli and Turkish made drones.
The man who pioneered this technology is Abraham Karem. He was born in Baghdad, Iraq in 1937. As a teenager, being from a Jewish family, he moved to Israel where he began to develop his interest in drone technology. Along the way he graduated from the renowned Technion University in Haifa and constructed his first drone during the 1973 October war for the Israeli army.
Later on he
moved to the United States where he founded a company called Leading Systems
which operated from his garage. He manufactured two early drones, 'Albatross'
and 'Amber'. A more sophisticated 'Amber' drone, as the US Government
contractor 'General Atomics' acquired Karem's company, became a platform for
arguably one of the best drones in the world - American made 'Predator'.
THE AUTHORS
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