THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER
AFTER SOLEIMANI
The killing of Qasem Soleimani may no longer be in the news, but its consequences will continue to be felt for a while in a way that does not advance US security or US interests in the Middle East.
By going for the extreme option of eliminating Soleimani, Trump must have thought even briefly that he was following on the precedent set by his predecessor in ordering the elimination of Usama bin Laden and his own previous order to eliminate Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi, the head of the Islamic State. Speculation about the domestic calculations behind the decision were relatively guarded. Trump would know that a "courageous" decision made in the comfort of the White House only produces a short spike in popularity. The real election is only in November. It might be more appropriate to find a motivation in Trump’s deep desire to appear decisive and the fact that there a few “adults” left around him.
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| Qasem Soleimani |
Soleimani was a US enemy on account of his support for US-designated terrorist entities in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq. The fact that he was a de facto ally in the fight against the Islamic State was not enough to counterbalance his other activity. It was not taken into account and afterwards largely ignored by commentators.
The initial justification for the extra-judicial killing of Soleimani was an imminent attack on US interests. From the outset, this was not terribly convincing. After the initial questioning wore off, that justification was gradually replaced by the argument that Soleimani was a bad guy anyway.
The results of the killing of Soleimani are the most serious problem.
First, the entity that Soleimani led is not internally weakened by his death. Some seasoned local observers have even noted that Quds, the external action group of Iran’s Revolution Guard Corps, may even be reinvigorated by the emergence of a new leadership.
The execution of Soleimani will make it more difficult for the US to resolve the issue of local opposition to US military presence in Iraq. Whereas Trump’s instincts would lead him to favour getting the boys out, proceeding with that course of action would be appearing to yield to Iranian pressure, something utterly unacceptable for him.
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| Esmail Ghaani, Soleimani's successor |
For the Iranian regime, Soleimani's death was an occasion to recover popular support and promote national unity. The downing of the Ukrainian aircraft led to some popular protests, but nothing that would endanger the regime. Ultimately, a scapegoat will most likely be found. More damaging though is the fact that hard-liners have had their position strengthened by the direct vocal support they received from the Supreme Leader ayatollah Ali Khameini.
An error in judgment by the Iranian air defence clearly led to the downing of the Ukrainian airliner and the tragic death of innocent people. It is collateral damage, but the responsibility is primarily that of Iran.
This being said, one has to conclude that the killing of Soleimani has achieved none of the objectives that were invoked by the US administration (other than a now doubtful alleged attack on US interests). In fact, it has complicated the situation, especially in Iraq. With respect to Iran, it has virtually destroyed the already faint hope of any US involvement in a conflict resolution dialogue in the foreseeable future and made Europe’s dialogue with Iran all the more difficult.
--o--
REVOLUTIONARY CHANGES OR PUTIN LOOKING FOR THE BEST WAY OUT?
President
Putin's January 15th relatively brief address to the Russian
legislators from both chambers of parliament was unusually full of radical
proposals and changes to the constitution. This address was immediately
followed by the resignation of PM Medvedev and that of all his cabinet.
The set of
controversial proposals included one that was positively received by the
Russian public, including those in the opposition. Putin suggested an amendment
to the constitution allowing the Duma (lower chamber of Russian parliament),
not the president, to appoint the future PM and his government. In fact,
according to Putin's suggestion, the president would not be able to veto the Duma's
choice of PM and subsequent ministers.
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| President Putin dressing the Federal Assembly Moscow, January 15th ©President of Russia website |
This does
not make Russia a parliamentary republic. It still remains a presidential one. In theory, the president and parliament may,
however, start working as a more equal tandem.
Another
major change to the constitution was in Putin's announcement to redefine the
role of the State Council, which was initially created in 2000. According to
Putin’s proposal, the Council will have the power to “set the main directions
of the domestic and foreign policy of the Russian Federation and the priority
areas of socio-economic development”. The body would be formed by the
president, although the proposed amendments give no indication how that process
would take place.
Many
experts familiar with the Byzantine flavour of many Russian policies see this
elevation of the State Council as a potential place from where, as Chairman,
Vladimir Putin could still keep a grip on power even after he vacates the presidential
post in 2024 or before. A somewhat similar approach was taken in China by Deng
Xiaoping and, more recently by Nursultan Nazarbayev in Kazakhstan. Closer
examination would suggest that Putin is more directly influenced by the model of
Lee Kuan Yew who served as PM of Singapore for more than 30 years and then successively
as Senior Minister and Minister Mentor.
Amidst the
speculation that was generated by Putin’s proposals, a few things are clear:
there will a new president in Russia by 2024 and that individual will still
have a lot of power. As for Putin, what we know from him would suggest he will not
put himself in a lame-duck position and that, once he leaves the presidency, he
will want to retain at least some real influence and enjoy personal immunity.
Putin's address to the parliament for the first time avoided long references to foreign policy and confrontational language. He concentrated on the fight against poverty, more financial help to families with more than one child, improvements in medical care and further development of high technology.
The
appointment of Mikhail Mishustin as a PM in many ways supports the basic tone
of Putin's message: Mishustin is an effective technocrat, highly educated in
computer science with a record of revolutionizing Russian taxation system and
making it one of the best in Europe.
--o--
THIS YEAR IN JERUSALEM
Heads of
State from Europe, North America, Africa and Australia came to Israel on January
23rd for the Fifth World Holocaust Forum. The event, entitled
“Remembering the Holocaust: Fighting Antisemitism,” was organized by the World
Holocaust Forum Foundation, headed by Dr. Moshe Kantor, in cooperation with Yad
Vashem, under the auspices of the President of the State of Israel, Reuven
Rivlin.
It,
however, was not only about the Holocaust, but also about World War II in
general and various conflicting narratives of that epic war.
75 years
ago front-line Soviet troops liberated Auschwitz, the most notorious Nazi
concentration camp where 1,1 million people, mainly Jews, were murdered.
Heads of
Estonia, Lithuania and most notably Poland chose not to attend the Forum due to
ongoing historical arguments over the Holocaust narrative. Auschwitz (Oswiecim)
is in Poland and many non-Jewish Poles collaborated in one way or another with
the Nazis. Many Poles also died in the hands of the Nazi regime or fighting it.
The current leadership of Poland does not see the history of that period the
same way as Russia and Israel do.
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| Mrs. Netanyahu, PM Netanyahu, President Putin Jerusalem, January 23rd ©President of Russia Website |
The most
important guest in Jerusalem was probably Vladimir Putin. Israel remains one of
the few “Western” countries that preserve and cherish the role the Soviet Union
played in the defeat of Nazi Germany. The Soviets fought Nazi Germany on the
ground from June 1941 and had already an upper hand in the war by the time
Americans landed in Normandy in August of 1944. Nine out of ten Nazi soldiers
were killed by the Red Army. The Soviet peoples paid a high price: 26 million
dead. Half a million Jews fought in the Soviet Army. Putin appreciates the
Israeli stance on that issue and Israel never forgets the symbolism of the
Soviet liberation of Auschwitz and capture of Berlin in May 1945.
Aside from
remembering arguably one of the darkest pages of recent human history, some
very important political issues had to be discussed as well. Netanyahu
obviously discussed Iran’s nuclear program with Putin, as well as ways to
reinforce the deconfliction system between Israel and Russia in Syria. Putin nevertheless also paid a visit to Mahmoud Abbas, the President of Palestine, to underscore the importance of the long-term relationship between Russia and Palestine.
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| President Putin, Palestinian leader Abbas Bethleem, January 23rd ©President of Russia Website |
The United
States was represented by VP Pence who mainly kept a low profile, but finally shook
hands with Vladimir Putin once he realised everybody else was doing so.
No doubt
many other political issues were discussed by various leaders present in
Jerusalem. Israeli public already had expressed their dismay at the fact that the mass murder of Jews 75 years ago had moved into the background, replaced by
pressing issues of the day. In fact it was pointed out that no one even thought
of inviting aging survivors at one dinner in Jerusalem until Ukrainian
President Zelenskyy noticed their absence and decided to meet with them.
Overall it
was an emotional occasion especially in light of growing anti-semitism
around the world. Russian cosmonauts remembered the occasion by appearing with
signs "we remember" at the space station and Israel had unveiled a
memorial to victims of Leningrad blockade (Putin's hometown) where about
700.000 Russians starved to death between 1941 and 1944.
As much as
participants tried to tell the world how much they valued lessons of the Holocaust,
a lot of important diplomacy was conducted on the sidelines of this memorial.
The past is important, but the present always wins the argument.
--o--
WHO CARES ABOUT UKRAINE?
We alluded
before to the fact that US politicians do not seem to care much about Ukraine,
but we did not expect Secretary of State Pompeo to state so openly the view
that American people do not care about Ukraine. In a recent incident that began
as an interview with Mary Louise Kelly, a well-respected National Public Radio
journalist, Pompeo seems to have blown off his top when he was reportedly asked
whether an apology was owed to former Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Jovanovich. Pompeo, claiming
that the interview was expected to be only about Iran, would have asked the NPR
journalist “Do you think Americans care about Ukraine?” Pompeo would even have
asked the journalist to locate Ukraine on an unmarked world map. Which,
apparently, she did. Besides confirming the fact that Pompeo is not a diplomat
either by profession or any other way, the incident probably reveals a
widely-held view in the US administration that Ukraine is only of interest as a
way to get to Russia, to get dirt on your political opponent or to get rich
quickly if the occasion arises.
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| President Zelenskyy at Ukraine House Davos, January 24th ©President of Ukraine Website |
Ukrainian
President Volodimir Zelenskyy did not need this on the eve of an expected visit
to Ukraine by Secretary Pompeo and in the aftermath of an apparently rather
lackluster performance at the Davos Economic Forum. The President’s efforts to
attract foreign investment seem to have met with indifference with the
President’s speech reportedly attended mostly by his own delegation. Ukrainian
PM Honcharuk seems to have had more success with his proposal to provide large
investors with a so-called nanny service: large investors would be offered the
services of a government manager as a guardian who would be available to handle
all the issues that the investor might face. This is obviously intended to
counter the fears related to the widespread perception of deep corruption in
Ukraine.
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| Ukrainian PM Honcharuk at the Ukrainian breakfast January 23rd, Davos ©PM of Ukraine Website |
The
relationship between the President and the PM had been somewhat strained by the
release on January 15th of an audio recording in which PM Honcharuk is heard
saying that President Zelenskyy does not understand much about how the economy
works. Zelenskyy rejected Honcharuk’s offer to resign and decided to give him a
second chance. Honcharuk’s indiscretion was not fatal at this time most likely
for the fact that he seems to have performed well and that the President would
be fully aware that his very young team has limited government experience.
Changing
the minds of foreign investors may, as noted above, may not be the most
difficult problem though. It was recently announced that the real population of
Ukraine is now at 37. 3 million, down 23% from 2001. Although part of the population loss is
directly related to the loss of territory (Crimea, Eastern Ukraine), it is
estimated that more than 6 million Ukrainians have left the country in
the past 15 years. The pattern is for a steady flow of working-age individuals to leave in
search of more lucrative employment. Ukraine has gone through demographic
problems before, be they caused by revolutions, wars or government-engineered
famine. Absolute numbers probably matter less than the fact that there will
likely be growing pressure on the working-age segment of the population to
support social programs for the non-working segment. Some of our North American
societies are already facing that issue as well, of course.
--o--
PERSON OF THE MONTH: MIKHAIL MISHUSTIN
The man who
replaced Dmitry Medvedev flew mainly under the radar before his surprise
appointment in mid-January. However Russia's business community was definitely
well aware of Mikhail Mishustin.
The 53-year
old, who has been credited with transforming Russia’s tax service over the last
decade, had a reputation among business leaders as one of the country’s most effective,
popular and smart bureaucrats, long before President Vladimir Putin picked him
to head the Russian government. “I have the
deepest respect for Mr. Mishustin,” German Gref, head of Sberbank and one of
Russia’s business heavyweights told the BBC. “He is probably one of the most
effective managers in the country, a person with the highest qualifications and
managerial skills. He is rare, a talented person who is very versatile.”
Business
people often praised Mishustin’s achievements during his 10 years at the
Federal Tax Service. They say he cut tax avoidance and improved the rate of
collection by transforming the organization into one of the most technically
advanced tax services in the world.
He pushed
for and had introduced massive new IT systems such as digital cash registers to
track transactions in real time, and a new automatic tax registration system
for small businesses and self-employed people to bring them in from the grey
economy. At the same time, he overhauled the organization’s reputation as a
meddling and corrupt bureaucracy to be feared and avoided.
However, some critics in the West believe that with the heavy introduction of digital
technologies within the tax apparatus, the state can improve its surveillance
techniques of corporations, business and individuals.
Mishustin
has few political accolades among his compatriots. Gennady Gudkov, a former
opposition lawmaker, called the new prime minister “a new faceless functionary
without ambition,” while Gleb Pavlovsky, a political analyst and former Putin
advisor, told the Russian news agency Interfax that Mishustin is “a splendid
bureaucrat, in the best sense of the word.” Foreigners who have had the
opportunity of meeting Mishustin tend to have a more positive view of his leadership
potential. It also has been noted that through his father who was a KGB analyst
he has a connection to the security establishment that, from the point of view of leadership potential in Russia, usefully complements his
economic and technical background.
On a
personal note, he has also been playing hockey with Vladimir Putin on at least
a few occasions, certainly a way of getting into the inner circle.
--o--
BRIEFLY NOTED
RUSSIA/ISRAEL
On January
23rd in Virginia, a Russian citizen who was the subject of a
three-year diplomatic row between Russia, Israel, and the US pleaded guilty to
charges related to the massive cybertheft of credit cards. Burkov was initially
arrested by Israel in 2015, on a US arrest warrant. Indictments unsealed later
charged him in connection with allegedly operating two Russian-language chat
forums where, according to U.S. officials, members traded stolen credit card
numbers and other information worth millions of dollars.
The fight
for custody of Burkov grew into a public diplomatic scandal last year, when Naama
Issachar, an Israeli citizen was arrested at a Moscow airport in April with a small
amount of marijuana as she was flying home from India. Issacher’s relatives,
meanwhile, publicly accused Russian authorities of holding her as a bargaining
chip to persuade Netanyahu to turn Burkov over to Russia. That did not work.
Issachar was sentenced to 7 years in prison.
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| President Putin meeting with Mrs. Yaffa Issachar Jerusalem, January 23rd ©President of Russia Website |
Netanyahu,
who has cultivated good relations with Putin, arranged for Issachar's mother to meet
with Putin during the Russian leader’s stay in Jerusalem on January 23rd.
It is rather unusual for Putin to meet someone who is connected to a person
found guilty by a Russian court. That he would let Netanyahu stage that kind of
meeting shows that is at least as good a friend with Netanyahu as Donald Trump
claims to be. Putin
even offered to have a senior Russian official look into the matter and
actually pardoned Issachar on January 29th. Netanyahu was back in Moscow on March 30th, to brief Putin on his discussions in Washington and on Trump's proposed "deal of the century" for resolving the Israel/Palestine conflict. Putin seemed more interested in discussing a free trade arrangement between the Eurasian Economic Union and Israel.
Beyond the
diplomatic intrigue, the case also confirms the persistent story about the fact
that Russian hackers are among the most dangerous and effective, as well that
there is a connection between hackers and the Russian government, with the
hackers possibly having the upper hand.
--o--
KAZAKHSTAN/CHINA
A court in
Kazakhstan has ruled that two ethnic-Kazakh men from China's northwestern
region of Xinjiang who are on trial for illegally crossing the border in
October will not be deported to China. The court in the far eastern town of
Zaisan announced its decision in the high-profile case on January 21st.
The
presiding judge handed one-year prison sentences to the two individuals for
illegally entering the country, but allowed them to stay in Kazakhstan, saying
that they may face persecution back in Xinjiang. The judge added that each day
the two men spent in pretrial detention since October counts as two prison
days, making them eligible for release in less than six months.
One of the
detainees testified that he had been detained in Xinjiang for questioning and
faced incarceration at a Chinese "reeducation camp."
TAJIKISTAN
Tajik
opposition groups outside the country claim that many dozens of people have
either been detained or investigated by security officials during the series of
raids in the country against suspected Muslim Brotherhood members.
Predominantly
Muslim Tajikistan banned the Muslim Brotherhood as an extremist group in 2006
and it faces a similar ban in Central Asian neighbors Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan,
and Uzbekistan. It is considered a terrorist organization in Tajikistan, Syria,
Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia, but
not in the United States or other Western countries.
In the last
2-3 years about 20 imams were arrested for allegedly being members of the
movement. They were accused of receiving funds from abroad and of spreading
Muslim Brotherhood ideology in Tajikistan, ultimately seeking to overthrow the
secular government in Dushanbe.
Critics
accuse the Tajik authorities of exploiting the state's campaign against
extremism and terrorism to clamp down on religious groups and individuals
critical of government policies in the authoritarian state.
USA/ARMENIA
The U.S.
State Department has issued a statement early this year that recent
congressional action to recognize the Armenian genocide does not reflect the
policy of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration. In a short statement,
the department said the Trump administration's position on the matter is
unchanged.
The Senate
voted unanimously last week to recognize the mass killings of more than 1
million Armenians by Ottoman Turks a century ago as a genocide. The House had
previously adopted a similar bill in the face of stark protests from NATO ally
Turkey. "The position of the Administration has not changed,"
department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in a terse two-sentence statement.
"Our views are reflected in the president’s definitive statement on this
issue from last April."
On April 24th,
President Donald Trump commemorated Armenian Remembrance Day in a statement
that honored "the memory of those who suffered in one of the worst mass
atrocities of the 20th century." In keeping with longstanding U.S. policy,
the statement did not use the term “genocide."
AZERBAIJAN
As is
allowed under the Azerbaijan constitution, President Ilham Aliyev has signed an
order setting parliamentary elections for February 9th. The ruling New
Azerbaijan Party (YAP), approved a proposal to dissolve parliament and allow
for the calling of snap general elections.
Officials
have said an early vote would help modernize Azerbaijan's legislative branch
and speed the course of economic reforms.
Despite its
vast energy resources, the country has seen difficult economic conditions in
recent years. Citizens have been hard-hit by rising inflation, unemployment,
and the cost of many basic goods.
--o--
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THE AUTHORS
Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe. Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, had become a textbook on relations of media and society.
During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.
Gilles Breton also currently serves as Chairman of the National Board of the Canada-Eurasia-Russia Business Association. The views expressed in this newsletter exclusively reflect the opinion of the authors.
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