THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER
CANADIAN FOREIGN POLICY, FROM INTELLIGENT TO SMART
François-Philippe
Champagne, Canada’s new Minister of Foreign Affairs is truly an engaging person.
He is also often described as very smart by individuals who have had dealings
with him. Christya Freeland, Champagne’s predecessor, was certainly no less intelligent.
The difference between intelligent and smart
may not change everything, but one is led to believe and hope that the passage from one to the other might
lead to a foreign policy with less lecturing and more dialogue, less emphasis
on preaching Canadian values and more on advancing Canadian interests (of which
promoting Canadian values is an important element, but not the only one).
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| Minister Champagne, Prime Minister Trudeau Facebook archive |
On the
substance of things, the arrival of a new minister will not necessarily herald
the emergence of a new foreign policy. The current Prime Minister has little
interest or appetite for that. The new minister’s different style of implementing
policy objectives may nevertheless lead to visible improvements in the
perception of Canada on the international scene. He may not readily resolve current problems, including the ones with China, he may, however, be more apt at conflict prevention. In all fairness, the objective
of getting Canada elected as non-permanent member of the Security Council is,
however, not one on which Minister Champagne’s performance should be judged. For
one thing, the competition is too stiff.
Besides, there may not be enough time to regain old friends.
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| Minister Champagne Facebook profile |
As for
Deputy Prime Minister Freeland, in addition to her Intergovernmental Affairs responsibilities,
she is expected to continue overseeing Canada-US relations. This does not imply
that she will not have a large influence on other foreign policy discussions in
Cabinet. On the matter that is obviously closest to Freeland’s heart, the
relationship with Ukraine and the non-relationship with Russia, it is worth observing
that unconditional supporters of Ukraine find themselves somewhat left in the
lurch by the policies of President Zelenskyy who is working for a peace
settlement in Eastern Ukraine and a modus vivendi with Russia. With
respect to the latter, it should also bear reminding that France is leading the
movement for the re-establishment of the Europe-Russia relationship, with the
UK and the US caught up in their domestic troubles, leaving Canada virtually
alone to fight the rear-guard action.
--o--
2020 AND
IMPEACHMENT
The ironic
aspect of the 2020 presidential election campaign is that Michael Bloomberg, a
newcomer in the race, will find it more difficult defeating his Democratic
colleagues than he would beating Donald Trump head to head. The left-wing
convulsions have become so habitual in the current Democratic political
establishment that even Bernie Sanders is closer to the center of the party
than to its left fringe.
Michael
Bloomberg is the second multi-billionaire tycoon to run for the nomination of
the party, after Tom Steyer. This is especially noteworthy in comparison to the
field where a large portion of the candidates are openly
"progressive", à la Justin Trudeau. Bernie Sanders already twitted an
angry tirade against Michael Bloomberg citing his wealth and
"capitalist" instincts, accusing him of buying his way into the race.
It is a
certainty that all other candidates will unite against Bloomberg during
upcoming debates. He, on the other hand, will not be able to defend himself in
those forums because according to the rules candidate who did not receive
financial contribution from donors are not allowed to take part in debates. As the result the split in the Democratic
party has intensified with the entry of Michael Bloomberg. This makes Trump's
position stronger. This will be re-enforced by the most likely failure of the
impeachment ordeal as well.
On
impeachment there is yet no visible change in the potential outcome with all
available Republicans “circling the wagons” and shooting messengers rather than
addressing the growing evidence against the President.
As the
impeachment process moves along, Democrats are likely to collect more dirt on Trump and
on Republicans. This is not necessarily
likely to cause impeachment or electoral defeat for Trump, since his base is
fiercely loyal, some even referring to him as the God-given one. There
still could be problems in some swing states, but the damage could well be felt
in the House and Senate elections. Those
Republicans fearing Trump’s kiss of death may be held to account for their
blind partisan support, and not having been chosen by God, may suffer a slower but
equally painful electoral death.
THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF NATO’S DEATH MAY HAVE BEEN PREMATURE, MAYBE
President
Macron’s remarks in a recent interview with the Economist about NATO suffering
from brain death have elicited considerable comments from many quarters as well
as a negative reaction from German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Germany’s formal
response has been to float the idea of convening a group of experts to look at
the situation. The idea was, of course, welcomed by NATO officials. The group
of experts would be created at the 70th Anniversary NATO Summit in December and
would only produce its report after the next US presidential election in
November 2020, in the hope there might a new US President or that a second-term
Trump presidency might be a lesser disturbance. As an example of “la fuite en
avant” one could hardly imagine any better. Some German politicians have
already criticized the idea as an instance of political leaders shirking their
responsibilities.
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| President Macron, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg November 28th, Paris ©NATO |
Macron’s initial
observations may have been provocative, but they are explained in a more direct
and perhaps even more damning way by his further statement at a Paris peace
conference held a few days after his Economist interview. Macron said: “I think
we need truth. Prudery or hypocrisy does not work in these times. Why? Because
our fellow citizens see it. We are in an open world. The experts, the citizens,
the activists, they see the consequences of this world. When it does not work
any more, they tell us. So hypocrisy and silence is not a solution. And
intellectual laziness or inaction is not a solution either.”
 |
| President Macron, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg November 28th, Paris ©NATO |
Macron’s
specific frustration with NATO was triggered by the fact that NATO as
an entity did not get its act together with respect to Syria. The US President
announced his troops were leaving, without a moment of consultation with NATO
allies. In the meantime, Turkey, another NATO ally is conducting its own
military offense essentially not heeding any advice from NATO partners, and
is purchasing a sophisticated defence system from Russia.
There is
more. Macron is also proposing to re-engage with Russia. Other EU countries are
already doing this, more discretely. In that context, for Macron, NATO is only reciting the same mantra and not taking a creative forward-looking
approach.
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| President Macron, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg November 28th, Paris ©NATO |
NATO
supporters will rightly argue that, as a collective security organisation, NATO
has functioned well against the potential threat that was the Soviet Union and
that is now Russia. There is no arguing against that. What Macron is
essentially saying is that parroting that line ad infinitum does
constitute a form of brain death, thus offending not only Germany, but a
certain number of countries of the so-called "New Europe" for which NATO
accession was the equivalent of drinking from the Holy Grail, in that it
reversed the post World War II order that confined them to the Soviet sphere of
influence. As an East German, Chancellor
Merkel would be sensitive to that. Macron’s point, though, is not to change
collective defence provisions of the NATO Treaty, but to acknowledge that the
institution no longer actively exercises the foreign policy coordination
function that it once did and that it essentially is in a state of prolonged
inertia.
Although
the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) of the European Union may not
have accomplished that much so far in terms of creating a European army, it and
other EU institutions would seem to have the advantage of providing the actual
forum where Europeans more readily and more assiduously discuss their foreign
policy concerns and are taking a forward-looking approach. NATO meetings have
the comparative advantage of bringing in North American participants and
Turkey, but with the level of coordination exercised within the EU, more often that
not, this will leave the non-EU participants with the impression that they were
not invited to the real party. Ultimately, many Europeans see a NATO as part of
their history, not their future.
As for the
key current challenge to European security, the situation in Ukraine, it is
certainly noteworthy to observe that the Normandy Four peace process has been
driven by France and Germany, that have been in no hurry to provide the US, their main NATO
ally, a seat at the table. President Trump’s earlier pronouncements about NATO
and recent revelations about his lack of interest in Ukraine are in the long
term bound to feed European tendencies to want to look after their own defence
interests and to look at a US-led NATO as a relic of the Cold War. As for Macron, his warnings
will not necessarily be heeded, but he will be despised by the proponents of
the Euro-Atlantic security arrangement for having spoken his mind, touched a
raw nerve and questioned the articles of faith.
--o--
UKRAINE:
PEACE IS BETTER THAN WAR
President Zelenskyy
just got severely criticized in a US publication by a member of the
parliamentary opposition for his lack of a vision for Ukraine as well as the
absence of a program for the future, beyond putting an admittedly desirable end
to the war in Eastern Ukraine. The opposition clearly senses that they have a
profound disagreement with Zelenskyy’s approach, but they are frustrated by the
fact that since the President does not outline his plans in any detail, just the same as
he avoided during the election campaign, he deprives them of an identifiable target
that they could readily shoot down. In the meantime, Zelenskyy is nevertheless moving
along in seeking an end to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, knowing that if he
can avoid crippling criticism during the process he stands a chance of winning
public support for a result that would essentially put an end to the fighting.
 |
| President Zelenskyy visiting Luhansk region, November 20th ©President of Ukraine Website |
The next
meeting of the Normandy Four Summit is to be held in Paris on December 9th. The
preference of leaders is for that kind of event to produce a previously-agreed
deliverable. There have been separate phone conversations between Macron and
Merkel with Putin and more recently between Zelenskyy and Putin. There is a
sense that something could be achieved on the Eastern Ukraine issue and related
matters. The delivery and transit of Russian gas has also been discussed. There
is no indication of any movement on the issue of Crimea, nothing should be
expected on that front.
The damage
that has been done to the US-Ukraine relationship by Trump’s antics and
statements may have reduced US influence in Ukraine, but it does not prevent
the US administration from commenting on the issue and in some cases raising
the bar on what should be expected from Eastern Ukraine rebel leaders. Cleverly
enough, Zelenskyy recently travelled to Estonia and Lithuania where he found
direct support for his peace efforts, thus counteracting US misgivings about a
possible peace arrangement. In Ukraine, Estonia and Lithuania, it turns out, may have
as significant influence as the US.
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| President Nauseda, President Zelenskyy November 27th, Vilnius, Lithuania ©President of Ukraine Website |
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| President Kaljulaid, President Zelenskyy November 26th, Tallinn, Estonia ©President of Ukraine Website |
While Zelenskyy
may be able to advance his peace agenda without too much interference, there is
some difficulty on his other priority, fighting corruption and advancing
economic reform. The country’s foreign debt burden offers little breathing
room. Badly needed foreign investment could come from China, but that raises a
number of strategic questions, including China’s close links to Russia. The long-awaited
plan to legalize private land ownership is highly controversial and clearly less
than popular. Managing a parliamentary majority that is composed of a large
number of political newcomers is also not simple, with the odd scandal popping
up on a frequent basis. For now, Zelenskky still enjoys a 60% popular rating, a
significant achievement in the circumstances, but there will be considerable
pressure on him to deliver tangible results, including some economic improvements, in the near future.
--o--
THE GAS
ISSUE, AS ALWAYS
With the
decision of a Swedish court to reject an appeal by Russia’s Gazprom, Ukrainian Naftogaz
just won another battle against its Russian counterpart in their legal conflict
over the interpretation of their existing contractual arrangement that is
coming to an end on December 31st of this year. In the meantime, opponents of
the Nord Stream 2, that would allow Russia to bypass Ukraine in delivering gas
to Western Europe, have publicly acknowledged that they only have a few months
left to stop the completion of that project. There a few other legal decisions
due in 2020 that could affect the Naftogaz/Gazprom relationship. Gazprom may
eventually have to pay large sums of money to Naftogas, but Naftogas has to weigh
the long-term impact of no longer having a Russian supplier and a transit
service client. In addition to the major revenue loss for the Ukrainian
economy, that would include paying more for other more distant sources of gas. Gazprom
can wait, time is in its favour. The pressure is on Naftogaz to decide whether
to trade its latest legal win for a better long-term contract or to wait for a
cheque eventually coming from Moscow when all legal matters have been resolved.
BRICS: THE UNDERAPPRECIATED ASSOCIATION
The summit
that took place in November in Brasilia
brought together leaders of
Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The association of those
nations represents half of the world population. (BRICS is the acronym coined
for an association of five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia,
India, China and South Africa. Originally the first four were grouped as
"BRIC", before the induction of South Africa in 2010).
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| BRICS Summit Leaders' Working Session November 14th, Brasilia ©President of Russia Website |
One aspect
of that summit particularly attracted international observers' attention.
China, Russia and India agreed to speed up the transfer of their trade from US
dollars to their national currencies. In fact only China be beneficiary of that
idea because the yuan is steadily becoming a reserve currency due to the China's
economic might. For others it is more a question of prestige than reality. It
has also become noticeable that the African continent has become a competitive
field for China-economically, while for Russia militarily and politically.
South Africa meanwhile is on the way to become an African economic powerhouse.
What makes
BRICS also an interesting organization is that it has no Western members and
therefore no Western influence.
PERSON OF THE MONTH: MICHAEL BLOOMBERG
Michael
Bloomberg was born in Boston in 1942. After earning his MBA from Harvard, he
got a job in 1966 in "The Cage" at Salomon Brothers, where he counted
out securities by hand. He worked his way up to general partner, but was fired
in 1981.
He is the
co-founder, CEO, and owner of Bloomberg L.P., a global financial services,
software and mass media company that bears his name, and is known for its
Bloomberg Terminal, a computer software system providing financial data widely
used in the global financial services industry.
He is an
active philanthropist, he has donated close to $8 billion to gun control,
climate change and other causes. As the mayor of New York City for 12 years
(three terms). Bloomberg is one of just four individuals to have served that
long.
According
to Forbes he is the 9th richest American and 14th richest man in the world with a fortune of around 54$ billion dollars.
After much
speculation, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg recently announced
Sunday that he was entering the 2020 Democratic primary race.
"I’m
running for president to defeat Donald Trump and rebuild America,"
Bloomberg declared in a statement on his campaign website. We cannot afford four more years of President
Trump’s reckless and unethical actions. He represents an existential threat to
our country and our values. If he wins another term in office, we may never
recover from the damage."
It is yet
to be seen if Bloomberg will appeal to younger, left-leaning Democrats as he
likely to position himself as a solid centrist, maybe even the most
conservative of the whole lot in the party. However, even at 77, among other
older candidates, he is evidently more dynamic than Biden and more middle of
the road than openly socialist Sanders who already twitted fiercely
anti-Bloomberg statement.
Bloomberg is
person of the month for himself, but as well as the illustration of the Democratic
Party’s failure thus bfar to find an electable candidate, to such a point that even
Hillary Clinton even hinted discretely at another possible run, only to get quickly
discouraged from even trying.
--o--
IRAN-ISRAEL
The US
Defence Department has recently expressed more than usual concern over the possibility that Israel may strike Iran directly, moving away from striking
Iranian assets only in Syria.
This
thinking comes from an understanding that Iran may fire more missiles from
Syria or even Iraq or Yemen (where it keeps rocket launching capabilities) into
Israel. If such an attack were to occur and inflict similar damage to Israel as
Iran inflicted on Saudis, Israel will most likely strike back hard and strike
Iran itself.
Iranian
forces in Syria have recently launched four rockets into the Israeli Golan
heights region. It was a retaliation for the suspected assassination attempt on
one of the leaders of Islamic Jihad in Damascus. Israel easily intercepted the
rockets, but unleashed a fierce retaliation on dozens of Iranian bases and
assets in Syria on November 20th, with cruise missiles and planes
killing more than 20 Iranians and some Syrians. Syria claimed it has
intercepted most missiles, but the damage on the ground showed it is unlikely
any Israeli rockets were intercepted.
The Pentagon
is concerned that the next round of hostilities may escalate into a large war.
Israel does everything to show Iran that it is not Saudi Arabia and it would
reply to even a small Iranian attack with overwhelming force. That in turn
could force Iran, with its back against the wall due to civil unrest and
rapidly declining economy, to reply with its own rockets or make Lebanese
Hezbollah or Islamic Jihad in Gaza to fire hundreds if not thousands of rockets
into Israel.
--o--
SERBIA
Serbia says
it is investigating reports of an alleged spying incident involving Russia
after a video was posted on social media apparently showing a Russian diplomat passing
money to a person said to be a senior member of Serbia's security service.
Prime
Minister Ana Brnabic said on November 20th that the military
intelligence agency had been ordered by the president to investigate the video
and claims that the man filmed handing out the alleged payment is a Russian
military intelligence agent.
Serbian
Defense Minister Aleksandar Vulin said the affair might be linked to Belgrade
remaining militarily neutral despite many countries in the Balkan region
joining NATO. Vulin told the Tanjug news agency that the "situation is
very serious."
Serbia is
seeking EU membership but has remained a close ally of Moscow, and has vowed to
remain militarily neutral, despite most countries in the Balkans joining NATO. Belgrade
also has refused to join Western sanctions against Russia over its actions in
Ukraine.
--o--
BELARUS
During his recent
visit to Austria, President Alexander Lukashenko defended Belarus’s human
rights record, as he called for closer relations with the European Union. Lukashenko made the comments on November 12 at a joint press conference with Austrian
President Alexander Van der Bellen in Vienna. It was his first trip to an EU
member state since his Italy visit more than three years ago.
Critics of
the authoritarian president, who has ruled Belarus for a quarter of a century,
say his government has shown little tolerance for dissent and independent
media. When asked about the state of human rights in his country and the fact
that Belarus is the only European state with death penalty (around 400 people
were executed since 1992) Lukashanko said: " "It is a country where
one can relax in peace and security." He also added that the death penalty was
approved in a national referendum in 1996. He also said that Belarusians
enjoyed the right to life, the right to work in Belarus and abroad, and the
right to free education.
The country
had been the target of U.S. and EU sanctions over its poor rights record and
lack of fair elections, but Belarus and the West have recently sought to mend ties
to reduce Russia’s influence in the country. In fact some set of sanctions had
been reduced.
Russia is
Belarus’s largest trading partner and props up its smaller neighbor’s economy
with cheap energy. Austria is the second-largest foreign investor in Belarus
after Russia.
--o--
SCHENGEN IN THE BALKANS
The leaders
of Albania, North Macedonia, and Serbia have committed to working together to
lift barriers on the movement of goods and people between the three Balkan
countries.
"We
have launched an initiative or action plan that creates a truly different
Balkans than we know: the Balkans of the 21st Century," North Macedonian
Prime Minister Zoran Zaev said on November 10th after meeting with his Albanian
counterpart, Edi Rama, and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.
The meeting
took place in the town of Ohrid, North Macedonia. Details of a plan to set up a
free trade zone were discussed to boost economic growth and foreign investment.
The three
leaders gave the project a name: "little Schengen," after the
European Union's border-free zone.
The Ohrid
summit was also attended by Bosnian Prime Minister Denis Zvizdic and
Montenegro’s Economy Minister Dragica Sekulic, whose countries are willing to
join the zone.
--o--
MOLDOVA
Moldova's parliament has approved a new government led by former a finance minister and presidential adviser, Ion Chicu. President Igor Dodon nominated Chicu on November 13th, a day after pro-Western Prime Minister Maia Sandu's cabinet lost a confidence vote after just five months in office, threatening more instability in one of Europe's poorest and most corrupt countries.
Dodon described Chicu as "a technocrat, a professional who has not been in any political party."
Some 62 lawmakers out of 101 voted in favor of the new government.
Chicu, 47, who until five months ago served as finance minister, told lawmakers that his minority government will have a transitional role until the next elections. More than half of the new government's members are former advisers of the pro-Russian Dodon, and some of them held ministerial positions in the government led by the Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM), which was ousted in June.
The alliance between the pro-Western and pro-Russian parties came following months of political uncertainty prompted by inconclusive national elections in February. President Dodon. The current arrangement is not expected to advance significant reforms.
--o--
RUSSIA
Dozens of
cadets and youngsters from Russia's Youth Army have been getting up close and
personal with perhaps the world's most iconic firearm as their country marked the centenary of the birth of Mikhail Kalashnikov, inventor of the
legendary AK-47 rifle.
At Victory
Museum in western Moscow, visitors including the young cadets were invited to
assemble Kalashnikovs and pose for selfies at the exhibition dedicated to the
ubiquitous automatic weapon.
Sunday
November 10th was the 100th anniversary of Kalashnikov's birth. It was marked by
a number of events, including the museum display and a biopic.
The
military engineer, who died in 2013 at the age of 94, is seen in Russia as a
national hero and symbol of the country's proud military past.
His assault
rifle has become a weapon of choice for both guerrillas and governments the
world over.
--o--
THE AUTHORS
Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe. Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, had become a textbook on relations of media and society.
During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.
Gilles Breton also currently serves as Chairman of the National Board of the Canada-Eurasia-Russia Business Association. The views expressed in this newsletter exclusively reflect the opinion of the authors.
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