Issue 7

THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER

BACK TO THE FUTURE

James Comey, FBI Director, 2013-2017

On May 9^th President Trump fired FBI Director James Comey, ostensibly over his handling of the Clinton emails investigation, but subsequently admitted this had more to do with the FBI’s Russia investigation. It was later revealed that Trump would have asked Comey to end the investigation into former national security adviser Michael Flynn, to no avail.

On May 17^t the Department of Justice announced the appointment of Robert Mueller, Comey's predecessor as FBI Director, to serve as “Special Counsel to oversee the previously-confirmed FBI investigation of Russian government efforts to influence the 2016 presidential election and related matters”. Trump’s Twitter reaction was to call this “the single greatest witch hunt of a politician in American history”.

At this point, the Trump administration might have been able to do what the Trump campaign could not, that is to come clean on the whole Russia story. The Trump administration does not, however, admit mistakes, but always blames others for its lack of success. Given its current credibility level at this time, an admission of some form of guilt might not even work. In any event, the Trump administration does not want to shed any further light on the Trump campaign’s Russia connections, but will continue to spend an inordinate amount of energy trying to deal with the issue.

Robert Mueller, FBI Director, 2001-2013

On the basis of what we have seen so far and in light of the fact that the FBI has been conducting its inquiry for months, it may well be difficult for Special Counsel Mueller to find enough evidence to lead to a criminal accusation. There could, however, be a fair amount of blame to distribute to some of Trump’s  associates. Incompetence as well as obliviousness or even disdain for ethical concerns come to mind.

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BACK ON TRACK: RUSSIA AND SYRIA

At the foreign policy level, the need to appear tough on Russia has initially compelled the Trump administration to revert to the hard line rhetoric of past US administrations, or to go even further, as we saw during the Tillerson visit to Moscow last month.

There has, however, been a significant change since the Tillerson visit. Putin called Trump on May 2^nd to talk mostly about Syria. Foreign Minister Lavrov met Trump and Tillerson in Washington on May 10^th. Again the focus was on Syria, where professed cooperation on the establishment of de-escalation zones and building on the work of the Astana negotiations seems to have brought US and Russian positions closer to one another. On other foreign policy issues, progress was less evident but commitment was made to pursue working contacts. On purely bilateral matters, things may move even slower. The White House read out of the meeting with Lavrov nevertheless stated that “the President further emphasized his desire to build a better relationship between the United States and Russia. This does not mean that there will be no other contradictory statements on the part of Trump, depending on the circumstances and the audience. What matters more is that in the case of Syria, Tillerson and and Lavrov seem to have agreed on the course to be followed and are actually implementing it. 

By the way, the outrage over the April 4th chemical weapons incident in Khan Sheikhoun no longer warrants even a footnote. 

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PASSING OBSERVATIONS

Secretary of State Tillerson greeting  Ambassador Kislyak

The coverage of the Trump-Lavrov May 10^th meeting focused first on the absence of American journalists or photographers in the room, moved later on to the inadvertent sharing of classified intelligence by Trump. The smiling faces of Lavrov and Ambassador Kislyak went relatively unnoticed, as was the actual substance of the meeting.

Two other small points bear mentioning: the Russian side always produces detailed written records of high-level meetings. The intelligence that Trump shared was probably well known to the Russians from their own sources, in any event, but they, the Russians, would not tell.

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SAUDI ARABIA VS IRAN

President Trum and King Salman, May 20th

It was expected that the Trump administration would cozy up to Saudi Arabia and cast Iran as the source of all evil. Trump’s trip to Saudi Arabia was the occasion to confirm this. The issues that the US may have with Saudi Arabia in terms of democracy and human rights were cleverly drowned in a sea of commercial contracts. There is a clear payoff for friendship with Saudi Arabia. The enmity towards Iran serves to distinguish Trump from Obama and make him look tough. In what way that enmity serves US interests, especially in Iraq where Iran plays a major role, remains to be demonstrated.

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ERDOGAN'S GAMBIT

Presidents Erdogan and Trump, May 16th

Recep Erdogan, President of Turkey, and almost a sultan, met with Donald Trump in Washington. Despite their common NATO membership, the meeting took place amid serious tensions between them. Erdogan considers that the recent attempted coup d’état in Turkey, ruthlessly suppressed by him with tens of thousands detained, had been inspired and orchestrated by American-based religious leader Fethulah Gulen. Every demand for Gulen's extradition to Turkey has been rejected by the US authorities. However the main irritant for Erdogan is the recent Trump administration decision to provide money and weapons for Kurdish groups fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq. As it was bluntly put by Binali Yildrim, Turkish PM: "The United States chose to support a terrorist organization and not Turkey". That is why Ankara is actively playing the Russian card. Erdogan visits Russia far more often than any NATO capital. To his great disappointment however Russia had started also to increase its influence among Kurdish groups, particularly in Syria. It is important to note that Turkey itself is home to 23 million Kurds who demand more autonomy and equal rights. Erdogan's objective is to downgrade Washington and Moscow's potential unified support for Kurds in Syria and Iraq. Should such a support continue, Kurds will be strong enough to push forward their long term dream of creating an independent Kurdish state and that, according to Erdogan, is absolutely unacceptable for Turkey.

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PERSON OF THE MONTH

Moon Jae-In, President of South Korea

Moon Jae-in, the newly elected president of South Korea is not exactly the choice of US strategists. Unlike his predecessor, who is currently in jail awaiting trial for corruption and other related charges, Moon is too much to the left for the American taste. The former human rights activist was a long time promoter of the so-called "Sunshine approach" vis-à-vis the North. That approach included substantial financial injections and food aid into the ever dying economy of its menacing neighbour. 

It has appeared however that the bulk of such assistance was cynically diverted by the regime to boost its military and nuclear programs as well as to sustain their party and military elites. Meanwhile the very objective of the "Sunshine approach" was to convince Pyongyang that it will benefit from cutting its threatening programs in exchange for ever increasing aid. This has never worked. Nevertheless we will probably witness another attempt by new South Korean administration to re-introduce such a policy.

The 40-minute long telephone conversation between President Moon and his Chinese counterpart has according to the South Korean media encouraged the newly elected president to try the non-confrontational way to calm down his unpredictable Northern adversary. Moon also talked to Vladimir Putin who assured him of Russia's support for this non-confrontational direction.

This developing situation could force Trump's non-compromising approach towards Kim Jong-un to become slightly more flexible.

On the other hand it could be sooner than later that the stubbornness and warmongering of young Kim will turn Moon from a dove into a hawk.  

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PUTIN, FIT FOR VERSAILLES

After calling President Trump and receiving recently, among others, the Japanese Prime Minister, the German Chancellor and the Italian Prime Minister, Putin has now been to France where new President Emmanuel Macron received him in Versailles. Even though the first Macron-Putin encounter took place in the Grand Trianon, it was not necessarily une partie de plaisir. All indications are that the leaders had an unusually robust and open dialogue. Macron's public comments about the "propagandistic" activities of Russia Today and Sputnik during the election campaign in France are getting a lot of attention in some circles. They made Macron look strong and undoubtedly raised a few eyebrows on the Russian side. Ultimately though, Macron, who had endeavoured to be firm with Putin on foreign policy issues such as Syria and Ukraine, essentially agreed to engage in a more active dialogue with Russia on Syria as well as to activate the discussions on Ukraine in the Normandy format.

Beyond the results he may have achieved, especially on Syria, Putin’s increasing diplomatic activity confirms his renewed status as a suitable interlocutor for at least 5 of the G7 leaders.

For Canadians, this raises a gnawing question: is Justin Trudeau ready for a selfie with Putin?

President Putin, PM Abe, April 29th

President Putin, Chancellor Merkel, May 2nd

President Putin. PM Gentiloni, May 17th

Presidents Putin and Macron, May 29th.

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REMEMBERING BIG ZBIG

Zbigniew Brzezinski, 1928-2017, in 1977.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, Polish born graduate of McGill University in Montreal only obtained US citizenship in 1950. He became a monumental figure in US and international foreign policy. As national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter he created a peculiar combination of liberalism with a hard-core anti-Soviet stand. According to Brzezinski, the main threat to the world had been the very existence of the Soviet Union. That conclusion shaped his approach to world affairs. Henry Kissinger, his main competitor and a political antipod, believed that the three great powers (the US, Russia and China) can and should work out a balance of strength  that should prevent tworld war. Kissinger is still very much active. President Trump recently admitted receiving Kissinger's advice. It looks however that the late Big Zbig's concept is closer to the Trump mentality.

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WEAPONS FOR UKRAINE

Some militants in Eastern Ukraine take the view that the Kyiv authorities do not want to negotiate directly with rebel regions because they believe that time is on their side. The idea is to wear out the rebels slowly but surely while the Ukrainian armed forces re-build their own capacity. The current US budget plans do, however, foresee an end to the provision of military grants and their replacement by loans in the case of certain countries, including Ukraine. The Trump administration’s initial spin on the story was that countries can get even more weapons from the US by purchasing them. This might not work so well in Ukraine. Whereas the move is consistent with Trump’s “America first” mantra, strong resistance can be expected from some quarters in the US Congress.

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UNIFIED DEFENSE OR MUTUAL COLLAPSE

The recent wave of global cyber-attacks against 150 countries that paralyzed health services in UK as well as a huge apparatus at the Russian ministry of interior and caused various economic and infrastructural damage to computer systems everywhere should be probably looked upon as what awaits the world in the near future - if a unified system of prevention and protection will not be put in place.

To do it the international community has to overcome suspicion and mistrust that has reached unprecedented level in recent years. According to the US State Department source the question of global cyber security will be part of the Trump-Putin meeting agenda in Hamburg in July 2017. That discussion however will be tainted by the current investigation in the US Congress of suspected Russian involvement in the recent American elections. Donald Trump will need all his negotiating skills to navigate between Putin and his own Congress. Only new, more destructive waves of cyber-attacks against the world community may convince world leaders to drop mutual suspicion about each other and push towards an agreement on collective cyber security. 

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ONE MORE STEP ALONG THE GREAT SILK ROAD

The dream of modern China to resurrect the great Silk Road by adapting it to the new world configuration has moved a bit closer to reality this month. This month's Economic Forum in Beijing to which President Xi invited Vladimir Putin as well as leaders of other Eurasian industrial countries (the US and India were somehow ignored) discussed the initial idea of creating transport corridors from China to Europe through Russia, Central Asian countries and Trans-Caucasian states. It will require multi-billion dollars investments into the infrastructure for the next 10-20 years. The economic return however could be astronomical: the flow of goods from China, South Korea, Japan, Thailand and Vietnam to Europe, Africa and by sea to Americas will move much faster saving labour and money. That is why Beijing announced that it plans to allocate 3 trillion dollars in the next 2 decades to make this project if not a complete reality than at least a platform for further development in the 21st century.

Asian media unanimously noted that such an industrial giant as India was not mentioned in those plans. The reason for that had different explanations in New Delhi and Beijing. Indian Government is stressing that its main interest is now in the development of cooperation with the US, Canada and, on the military side, with Israel and Russia.

Beijing hints that the real reason for India's non-participation is close relations between China and Pakistan and some unsolved territorial issues between China and India. Russia officially supported Beijing's strategic concept. President Putin stressed in his statement during the Forum that Russia is becoming the leading gas and oil supplier to China and will do everything possible to keep close relations intact. As one Russian observer sarcastically noted: "There were times when we were Big Brother to China-now it’s the other way around".

BRIEFLY NOTED

UKRAINE

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has banned (temporarily, for 3 years) access to popular Russian social network sites Yandex, Odnoklasniki and Vkontakte, as well as to the email service Mail.ru . Those sites were so popular that even Poroshenko himself according to his own admission had been a registered user. The decision met controversial reaction in Ukraine and Russia as wellas by by human rights organizations in Europe. 

The administration in Kiev explained its decision by the need to resist the Russian information war against Ukraine. Reporters Without Borders, a respected human rights organization, described the decree as a violation of free speech.

Moscow sarcastically noted that it cannot reciprocate due to the non-existent influence of similar Ukrainian sites. Meanwhile the sites themselves published detailed instructions for users on how to circumvent this ban.

UZBEKISTAN-CHINA 

Shavkat Mirziyaev, the new president of Uzbekistan, maintains his predecessor Islam Karimov's policy of equally balanced relations with both powerful neighbors (China and Russia). He just participated in Beijing's economic forum where he met with president Xi and heads of major Chinese business conglomerates. Number of agreements worth more than 20 billion dollars have been signed.

One of them - the substantial increase of Chinese investments in Uzbekistan's gold-mining industry - is particularly important in light of newly discovered gold deposits in that key Central Asian country.

TAJIKISTAN

Internal political shake up in the guise of struggle against corruption brought down several members of the top political elite. Most notably Mahmudsaid Ubaidulloev, the most influential politician in Tajikistan (a long-time mayor of Dushanbe and the chairman of the Parliament's upper house) has been gradually demoted together with many of his supporters in political circles and the army. Many of his cronies were also accused of corruption and given lengthy prison terms. Ironically Ubaidulloev was replaced as mayor of Dushanbe by President Rahmon's son.

AZERBAIJAN-ARMENIA

The Azerbaijani army has suddenly destroyed the recently deployed anti-aircraft installation (a Russian-made system) together with its crew on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, a separatist enclave mainly populated by Armenians which split from Azerbaijan in the aftermath of the Soviet Union's collapse. From then on Nagorno Karabakh that proclaimed itself an independent state though closely associated with Armenian republic has become a constant conflict zone with sporadic military clashes between Armenian and Azeri forces with thousands of casualties. Multiple attempts at diplomacy and high level summits have failed every time. This new cycle of violence will continue as Armenia promised retaliation.

GEORGIA

Former mayor of Moscow Yuri Luzhkov and his billionaire wife Elena Baturina have discovered during their recent visit to Georgia that they are personae non gratae there. Upon their departure from Tbilisi airport they were informed by Georgia's customs that they would be banned from visiting Georgia for the next thee years. The reason for the travel ban was the fact that Luzhkov several times visited the Russian occupied republics of Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia. Since the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia, Tbilisi and Moscow do not have diplomatic relations. Georgian officials claimed that the visas to Luzhkov and his wife were issued by mistake.

THE AUTHORS

Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His particular area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe.  Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, had become a textbook on relations of media and society.

During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy  in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.