Issue 3

THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER

A LONG-DISTANCE RELATIONSHIP?

On top of what was officially confirmed by the White House and the Kremlin concerning an hour-long telephone talk between Trump and Putin, the BGN sources in both capitals report:

• Both leaders have agreed in principle that military operations against ISIS will be jointly planned and executed not only in Syria, but, if necessary, in Iraq as well. The Russian side raised the question of potential IS relocation to Libya where the organization could take advantage of increasing chaos and radicalization. According to our sources, Trump did not object to joint actions there too.
• The Ukrainian crisis was discussed longer than it was officially confirmed on both sides. That allowed some European observers to conclude that both sides of the Ukrainian conflict will be hard pressed to make some concessions in their interpretations of the Minsk-2 agreement.
• It has also become known that the planned meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will take place only after their encounter at the G-20 in July in Hamburg, Germany.
• While the question about the possible removal of Western sanctions against Russia (as well as Russia's counter-sanctions) has not been addressed during the telephone conversation, it is more likely than not that the sanctions will be gradually done away with.  

NEO-NATIONALISM TRYING TO REPLACE GLOBALISM

President Donald Trump signed one of his first orders: The U.S. departure from the Trans Pacific Partnership. He promised to undertake this step from the beginning of his presidential campaign. The significance of that is not the further destiny of TPP itself-after all it never really took off. More important is the fact that Trump's order signifies a considerable boost to the new world-wide trend in the post industrial world: Political and economic neo-nationalism.

To make this even clearer, Trump confirmed his decision to renegotiate NAFTA and even withdraw from it should the planned negotiations with president of Mexico and prime minister of Canada fail to reach the desired results. He combined those statements with reiterating his support for Brexit and skepticism for EU and NATO.

Trump's actions reverberate across Europe. The outcome of upcoming presidential elections in France will be decided between the ultra-conservative Marine LePen and conservative François Fillon. The former had included Frexit into her electoral program while the latter wants to protect France from the further influx of immigrants and restore national borders for that purpose. In addition both candidates are firmly determined to abolish sanctions against Russia.

Trump's views have been enthusiastically supported by ruling political elite in Poland. Warsaw was under fire from EU for its nationalistic policies and anti-immigrant stand. Polish president Duda feels encouraged by Trump's rhetoric.

Newly elected president of Moldova Igor Dodon stated during his recent visit to Moscow (first in 8 years by a Moldova's leader) that his country is reconsidering its pro-EU orientation and is to restore closer ties with Russia and Eurasian Economic Union. 

In Europe only Angela Merkel, a firm ideologue of EU in its traditional fully integrated form remains a big hope for supporters of globalization in the Western World. She will probably win federal elections in Germany this year.

Canada's position is vulnerable somewhat. Yet its economic interdependence with the United States and good standing among the European allies could provide Ottawa with additional power of convincing.

We are entering a time of uncertainty; clash between not yet precisely defined neo-nationalism and excessive globalization that dominated the world for several decades. The best outcome would be the absence of an absolute winner.

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                                                                                                                             ©WikiLeaks

CYBER SECURITY : INFLUENCING ELECTION RESULTS

The debate about the hacking of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) email accounts and its impact on the outcome of the presidential election may never end. A few observations may be useful to put the debate in perspective.

There have been many critical comments, even from unexpected less than pro-Russian sources, about the weakness of the US intelligence report on Russia's efforts to influence the outcome of the 2016 election. The expectation was perhaps that the US intelligence community might be able to produce a smoking gun. This is most unlikely. As some cyber security specialists have advanced, Russian hackers, if they have done the job and done it well, would not leave any trace of their identity. In fact, good hackers would leave traces, but only so as to confuse or mislead eventual investigators. Russia has good hackers, some would even argue that they have the best (they are reportedly based in St.Petersburg). US intelligence authorities would know this not only from their own investigation, but from their own conversations with Russian counterparts about cyber security. Ironically, some of these conversations were even going on as recently as April 2016. In fact, the importance of the circumstantial evidence component that filtered into the declassified US intelligence report corroborates the lack of direct evidence Otherwise you would not have to say so much about Russia Today broadcasts in an intelligence report. There might of course be other direct evidence of Russian hacking the DNC accounts and then making the contents available, but the kind of evidence that could not be made public in order to protect the means by which it was acquired be it through human agency or, even more ironically, through surreptitious classified means.

The Russian authorities clearly did not want another president Clinton. Her own statements about the December 2011 Russian parliamentary elections would have sealed the verdict against her. Do we have conclusive evidence that the Russian side conducted the full hacking and release operation? No, but that is asking for too much. Did Russian actions have a direct decisive impact on the result? Hard to say, there were too many other factors in play. Is the Trump presidency legitimate? Being generally aware of the material acquired through DNC email hacking as well as being already aware of alleged Russian involvement, American voters have expressed their opinion. Within the specific arrangements of the US constitution, the presidency devolves to the candidate having finished second, but having scored better in the electoral college contest. 

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MR. TRUMP WAS IN MOSCOW

Did the Russian authorities spy on Donald Trump when he visited Russia? There is no question that the capacity to do so exists. For what purpose would they do it is perhaps the better question. A “mature” US businessman with friendly dispositions and without known political ambitions would not be such a useful target. There is after all little to be gained from blackmailing a friend. Besides you would have to be able to show outrageous behaviour that would allow you to threaten to damage the good reputation of the individual.

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Former Vice-President Biden and President Poroshenko, Kyiv, January 16, 2017
President of Ukraine Website

DEFINING THE NATIONAL INTEREST: WHAT WILL UKRAINE DO?

Very little has changed politically or militarily in the Eastern Ukraine conflict since the 2014/2015 Minsk agreements. The agreements have led to a reduction of military activity, little more. The conflict is now to a large extent “frozen” It is relatively easy to argue that a frozen conflict that prolongs the uncertainty in Ukraine and that hampers Ukraine’s possible progression towards NATO membership is in Russian interest. As such, little change can be expected from the Russian side. A frozen conflict, with all its negative consequences, is not so much in Ukraine’s interest. Could changes then not come from the Ukrainian side? The initiative to propose some changes has already come from one oligarch, Victor Pinchuk, who is very well connected with US Democrats as well as having connections to Trump. Allegedly inspired to some extent by similar Henry Kissinger thinking, Pinchuk called at the end of 2016 for Ukraine to give up for the foreseeable future on UE and NATO ambitions, give up temporarily its claim to Crimea, agree to local elections in the Donbass and to the lifting of sanctions on Russia. The Pinchuk proposals were expectedly met with harsh criticism in official Kyiv. The Ukrainian Parliament Rada is preparing to launch investigation of Mr. Pinchuk on the grounds of anti-state activities.

The expectation is that the Trump/Pence administration may not have the same interest for Ukraine as the Obama/Biden team. The new President’s stated intention to build a new relation with Russia could indeed mean that Ukraine would lose the active support it has heretofore received from Washington, even if it retains strong backers such as John McCain in the US Senate. Is the loss of that specific foreign support enough to induce a change in President Poroshenko’s approach to the conflict with Russia? Unlikely, at least for now. The problem for Poroshenko, however, is that the status quo with which he is associated could come under considerable pressure abroad and, eventually, at home. In a more difficult international political environment, will he be the one to continue defining the Ukrainian national interest? Or, in a country where the power struggles between oligarchs have traditionally influenced leadership choices and policy outcomes, will he be the oligarch to be pushed over by his peers? Pinchuk’s initiative may well have been only the first shot in this new battle.

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CAUTIOUS MODERNIZATION-THE FIRST STEPS OF NEW LEADERSHIP IN UZBEKISTAN

President of Uzbekistan Website

Shavkat Mirziyoyev the new president of Uzbekistan who replaced the diseased dictator Islam Karimov had been smart enough not to introduce radical reforms - despite the fact that country is desperate for change. The experience shows that radical reforms introduced to rapidly in this part of the world tend to bring civil unrest coupled with violent takeovers. Mr. Mirziyoyev started cautiously. He confirmed Uzbekistan's non-alliance status while visibly improving ties and economic cooperation with China and European Union. At the same time relations with Moscow will be kept on the same friendly level as before. The real problem of Uzbekistan, as the rest of central Asia, is rising Islamic extremism. One has to keep in mind that Uzbekistan not only borders Afghanistan but around 10% of Afghani population is of Uzbek origin and the fundamentalists' influence and militants' infiltration are on the increase. The new government in Tashkent is trying to deal with this problem in less severe and accommodating manner - unlike under Karimov's regime.

The government is liberalizing its investment policy. They have substantially broadened private sector expansion in mining industry, trade and agriculture.

Being the most populous Central Asian country, Uzbekistan is gradually yet steadily opening up to the world.  

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PERSONALITY OF THE MONTH

Thae Yong-ho: North Korean regime is doomed

The most senior North Korean diplomat ever to defect had just provided chilling details on Kim Jong Un's obsession with nuclear weapons and degree of human sacrifice and sufferings the dictator is ready to throw on the altar of his ambitions. According to Thae-Young-ho as many as 3 million North Koreans starved to death since mid -1990s - the beginning of Pyongyang's nuclear program.

Since Kim Jung Un's ascension to power ever increasing numbers of the North Korean elite defected to South Korea. At the same time South Korean made films, music videos and soap operas had become the favorite clandestine entertainment in the North. In spite of authorities' crack down and persecution the dissatisfaction, especially among young people, is growing. And that according to Thae Yong-Ho could finally bring Kim's communist dynasty closer to collapse.

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BRIEFLY NOTED

RUSSIA

Piotr Tolstoy, vice speaker of State Duma (Russian parliament) who happens to be a direct descendant of Leo Tolstoy, made an openly anti-Semitic statement where he accused Jews of preventing the Russian Orthodox Church from appropriating the famed St. Isaac’s cathedral in St. Petersburg. His statement provoked uproar in political circles and among Russian public. Jewish organizations in Russia issued statements of condemnation.

TAJIKISTAN

The political leadership of Tajikistan has expressed its concern in regard to a possible withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. Tajikistan has a long and volatile border with Afghanistan. Also, around 30% of Afghan population is comprised of Tajiks. This situation prompts Tajikistan to develop even closer relations with Russia and other countries of Eurasian Economic Union.

BULGARIA

Rumen Radev, newly elected President of Bulgaria, formerly general in command of national Air Force, has dissolved Parliament and announced new elections. Known for his pro-Russian orientation, president Radev hopes that his socialist party this time will win and consequently the country's new government will tone down its ardent support for EU.  The looming new world order promulgated by Donald Trump gives more credence to that aspiration.

FINLAND

Sauli Niinistö, President of Finland proposed to organize a meeting between presidents Trump and Putin in his country. Finland has a good tradition in bringing West and East together. The security conference in 1975 in Helsinki was a major event that triggered the process of detente and disarmament agreements between the Cold War rivals. The sources in Moscow and Washington indicated that it would take months to prepare such a summit.  

KAZAKHSTAN

Kazakhstan is changing its political system from presidential rule to parliamentarian one. It was announced recently by President Nursultan Nazarbayev in his address to the nation. The 76-year old leader already began to transfer some of his functions to the Government and Parliament. He is the first among the three founding leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union to undertake such a political transformation.  

BELARUS AND UZBEKISTAN VISA-FREE TRAVEL UPDATE

Starting 12 February, citizens of 80 states, including Canada,​ will be able to enter Belarus visa-free, but only through the Minsk National Airport and for a period of up to 5 days.

Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has modified an earlier order that envisaged a visa-free travel regime for tourists from a number of countries starting from April 1, 2017. The President postponed the visa-free travel regime for tourists from 27 countries from April 1, 2017, till January 1, 2021.

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THE AUTHORS

Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His particular area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe.  Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, had become a textbook on relations of media and society.

During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy  in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.