Issue 1

THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER

The Breton/Gerol newsletter (BGN) is aimed at partially filling the vacuum of knowledge, understanding and realistic analysis of the events in Russia, Eurasian Economic Union and Eastern Europe that has developed in the last 2 decades - together with the total disappearance of the Western School of Russian and Eastern European studies. It was mistakenly assumed that with the collapse of world communism the role of political and economic entities that replaced regimes in that part of part of the world somehow became less relevant.

The chain of dangerous conflicts in Georgia (2008), Ukraine (2013) and Syria (2015 when Russia joined the hostilities) as well as the outburst of antagonism between two major nuclear powers Russia and the United States had proven that we do need to restore the level of thorough and detailed analysis that existed during the Cold War.

In this new political reality Canada can play a creative and significant role. While being a staunch and loyal member of the Western alliance, we can find our own ways to positively influence West and East alike. This approach requires an objective analysis and specific knowledge - something that Breton/Gerol Newsletter is aimed to offer.

Gilles Breton

Ilya Gerol

End of Political Mythology

For a long time it had become a habitual game; first you create a stereotype, then you start to believe in it and finally it defines your views, behavior and decision-making.

That's exactly what happened during the election marathon in the United States with all reverberations here in Canada and all around the world.

It appeared crystal clear that Hillary Clinton and only her was destined to become the 45th president. After all it was a ripe time for woman to become a leader of the free world. It was also the time to really empower every possible minority group - ethnic, racial, gender and whatever else was on the liberal agenda - around that personality.

Obviously this new "majority" had to win, hadn't it?

The reality proved however that there was no such mythical majority. It had also appeared that African-American and Latino communities did not wish to be taken for granted or even more importantly to conform to the established left-wing stereotypes. As a result two thirds of Latino and one third of African-Americans voted for Trump. The same can be said about women.

Stereotypes aside, we have to admit that majority as well as minority of the electorate have the same priorities; healthy economy, lower taxes, and balanced approach to immigration. And this is exactly what Trump offered to them - admittedly not always in a politically correct form.

At the same time his foreign policy outlook sounded more reasonable and moderate that one of his opponent; he rejected ever growing antagonism against Russia as a cornerstone of foreign policy, dogmatic support for a conveyor-belt of revolutions everywhere without consideration for consequences as it was in Egypt, Libya and to a certain extent Syria.

In the new, multilayered political reality that is unfolding as we speak, Canada can be very instrumental in harmonizing uneasy relations that will arise between U.S. and European Union and of course between the West and Russia.

IG

Trump and Putin: shall we dance now?

Of all the statements that President-elect Trump made during the electoral campaign, it turns out that the few ones that were close to the mark were his observations on the failure of the Obama foreign policy in the Middle East and the inadequate management of the relationship with Russia, in the latter case letting President Putin be the more decisive leader.  Being right on the mistakes of your predecessor does not however constitute policy-making and it remains to be seen what the President-elect will offer as real alternatives.

In the context of the Middle East, one of the often-repeated statements of Mr. Trump is that he would deal with ISIL and other forms of terrorist in a much more decisive manner. Inasmuch as ISIL largely operates in Syria, where Russia has essentially had the initiative since it undertook military operations there a little more than a year ago, Mr. Trump’s plan would have to take into account the Russian factor.  Would he emulate the Russian practice of aggressive bombing of perceived terrorist targets? Would there be greater willingness to “co-ordinate” military activity with Russia? Yet, Russia may not be Trump’s greatest problem. Dealing with Turkish President Erdogan, bringing Qatar and Saudi Arabia in line, as well as looking after Israel’s interests will be equally challenging.

Mr. Trump’s comments about the strong leadership of President Putin served to illustrate the relative weakness of Putin’s US counterpart. Some have argued that there was more to the comment and that Trump found something of himself in the decisive and authoritarian Mr. Putin. In fact Putin and Trump often express their policy leitmotiv as the pursuit of their respective country’s national interests. In the case of Mr. Trump, this is bound to cause some discomfort among the millionaires currently running the government in Ukraine, who will have to convince the President-elect that supporting them is in the US national interest.

Mr. Trump’s position will differ from that of his predecessor is that he can claim that he was not the one who was outmanoeuvered by Putin when it comes to Syria or sat idly by when Russia reclaimed Crimea and set up a state within the state in Eastern Ukraine. Even more significant is that by having good words for Putin Trump has set himself in complete opposition to the Washington and NATO establishments for whom virtually nothing good can come out of the Kremlin.

For Canada, this means that there may be even greater pressure from the supporters of Ukraine on the Canadian government not to imitate a possible US disengagement in Ukraine. Symbolic measures may be continued and the same speeches repeated, but Canadian and even EU support will not protect the Ukraine from a having to face a major re-assessment of its own position. Furthermore, if President-elect Trump follows up on his idea of forging a new relationship with President Putin, it will increase the pressure on the Canadian government to activate the normalisation of its own relationship with Russia.

On the Russian side, the reaction to the election of an unusual politician has been suitably reserved. In the days of the Soviet Union criticism that was privately levelled toward legendary Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko was that his policy in relation to the US was to await the return of a Russia friendly president such as Roosevelt (FDR not Teddy). Gromyko might have smiled on the morning of November 9th.

GB

President-elect is not President yet...

Experts on free trade issues in the U.S. were somewhat taken aback by the excessively rapid reaction of Canadian PM Justin Trudeau and his ministers to the Donald Trump's pre-election statements on his determination to dismantle NAFTA. The reaction had been even more surprising in light of the fact that the president-elect had evidently softened many of his previous claims.

BGN sources in Washington are certain that there will be no dismantling of NAFTA but rather some business-like negotiations of some outdated elements of the agreement. One has to keep in mind that in future interactions with such a shrewd negotiator and deal-maker as Donald Trump, it would be beneficial to keep your cards close to the chest.

Barely afloat...

Russian parliament Duma has approved the first reading of its 3-year budget. On the positive side - the only positive side of that monumental document - is that Russian economy will not sink further. Although the growth will be minimal, not more that 1.5%, it marks a certain improvement after 3 years of free fall. The budget is based on the projected oil prices of 40$ per barrel. This brings the necessity of total austerity and cuts on everything except for military spending.

It would be however reasonably to assume that Kremlin's transparency about its economic hardships could signal its readiness for a major negotiated compromise with the West concerning Syria and Ukraine. All depends whether Russian expectations of President Trump's willingness to change the course as he claimed during his election campaign will materialize. Trump's recent conversation with Vladimir Putin and appointment of allegedly more sympathetic to Russia Mike Flynn as National Security adviser points to this direction.

Who will care about Ukraine?

Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul’s Twitter message on election night: Biggest loser in the world tonight-- Ukraine. Your only hope is to get really serious about reform and keep Euros supportive.

Kindred spirits

Dmitry Peskov, President Putin’s Press Secretary, on CNN, November 11

"If our two leaders, I mean the current Russia's leader, President Putin, and President-elect Trump are wise enough to have a political will to talk to each other ... then we'll really have a chance to talk and to try to solve the problems being constructive," Peskov said. "Because what we have currently is a very lousy relationship."

"They seem to be very pragmatic, both of them," Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Christiane Amanpour. "We've heard Mr. Trump mentioning overwhelming priority of America's national interests. And the same is being proclaimed by President Putin. He's very consistent in that, saying that Russia and Russia's people's prosperity and their national interests are the main objective and main priority."

He continued: "But at the same time they both expressed a readiness to develop good relations with other countries in the world ... this is a very good, very positive coincidence in my opinion."

One, two, three?

Rumen Radev will become Bulgaria’s next president  Radev, the former commander of Bulgaria’s Air Force, is a relative newcomer to politics and is supported by the opposition socialist party. His election is seen as a boost for Russia and a letdown to western allies, as he is considered to be Russia-friendly

Igor Dodon is to become the next president of Moldova with a 55% victory of the popular vote. A loss of trust in pro-European leaders appears to have helped Dodon who wants to restore close ties with Russia.

The election of two “Russia-friendly” presidents may have limited political consequences in itself. It is, however, revealing of the fact that being perceived as pro-Russian is not an obstacle to an electoral victory. 

The authors

Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His particular area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe.  Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, had become a textbook on relations of media and society.

During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy  in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.