THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER
The Breton/Gerol newsletter (BGN) is aimed at
partially filling the vacuum of knowledge, understanding and realistic analysis
of the events in Russia, Eurasian Economic Union and Eastern Europe that has
developed in the last 2 decades - together with the total disappearance of the
Western School of Russian and Eastern European studies. It was mistakenly
assumed that with the collapse of world communism the role of political and
economic entities that replaced regimes in that part of part of the world
somehow became less relevant.
The chain of dangerous conflicts in Georgia
(2008), Ukraine (2013) and Syria (2015 when Russia joined the hostilities) as
well as the outburst of antagonism between two major nuclear powers Russia and
the United States had proven that we do need to restore the level of thorough
and detailed analysis that existed during the Cold War.
In this new political reality Canada can play a
creative and significant role. While being a staunch and loyal member of the
Western alliance, we can find our own ways to positively influence West and
East alike. This approach requires an objective analysis and specific knowledge
- something that Breton/Gerol Newsletter is aimed to offer.
Gilles Breton
Ilya Gerol
End of Political Mythology
For a long time it had become a habitual game;
first you create a stereotype, then you start to believe in it and finally it
defines your views, behavior and decision-making.
That's exactly what happened during the
election marathon in the United States with all reverberations here in Canada
and all around the world.
It appeared crystal clear that Hillary Clinton
and only her was destined to become the 45th president. After all it was a ripe
time for woman to become a leader of the free world. It was also the time to
really empower every possible minority group - ethnic, racial, gender and
whatever else was on the liberal agenda - around that personality.
Obviously this new "majority" had to
win, hadn't it?
The reality proved however that there was no
such mythical majority. It had also appeared that African-American and Latino
communities did not wish to be taken for granted or even more importantly to
conform to the established left-wing stereotypes. As a result two thirds of
Latino and one third of African-Americans voted for Trump. The same can be said
about women.
Stereotypes aside, we have to admit that
majority as well as minority of the electorate have the same priorities;
healthy economy, lower taxes, and balanced approach to immigration. And this is
exactly what Trump offered to them - admittedly not always in a politically
correct form.
At the same time his foreign policy outlook
sounded more reasonable and moderate that one of his opponent; he rejected ever
growing antagonism against Russia as a cornerstone of foreign policy, dogmatic
support for a conveyor-belt of revolutions everywhere without consideration for
consequences as it was in Egypt, Libya and to a certain extent Syria.
In the new, multilayered political reality that
is unfolding as we speak, Canada can be very instrumental in harmonizing uneasy
relations that will arise between U.S. and European Union and of course between
the West and Russia.
IG
Trump and Putin: shall we dance now?
Of all the statements that President-elect
Trump made during the electoral campaign, it turns out that the few ones that
were close to the mark were his observations on the failure of the Obama
foreign policy in the Middle East and the inadequate management of the
relationship with Russia, in the latter case letting President Putin be the
more decisive leader. Being right on the
mistakes of your predecessor does not however constitute policy-making and it
remains to be seen what the President-elect will offer as real alternatives.
In the context of the Middle East, one of the
often-repeated statements of Mr. Trump is that he would deal with ISIL and
other forms of terrorist in a much more decisive manner. Inasmuch as ISIL
largely operates in Syria, where Russia has essentially had the initiative
since it undertook military operations there a little more than a year ago, Mr.
Trump’s plan would have to take into account the Russian factor. Would he emulate the Russian practice of
aggressive bombing of perceived terrorist targets? Would there be greater
willingness to “co-ordinate” military activity with Russia? Yet, Russia may not
be Trump’s greatest problem. Dealing with Turkish President Erdogan, bringing
Qatar and Saudi Arabia in line, as well as looking after Israel’s interests
will be equally challenging.
Mr. Trump’s comments about the strong
leadership of President Putin served to illustrate the relative weakness of
Putin’s US counterpart. Some have argued that there was more to the comment and
that Trump found something of himself in the decisive and authoritarian Mr.
Putin. In fact Putin and Trump often express their policy leitmotiv as the
pursuit of their respective country’s national interests. In the case of Mr.
Trump, this is bound to cause some discomfort among the millionaires currently
running the government in Ukraine, who will have to convince the
President-elect that supporting them is in the US national interest.
Mr. Trump’s position will differ from that of
his predecessor is that he can claim that he was not the one who was
outmanoeuvered by Putin when it comes to Syria or sat idly by when Russia
reclaimed Crimea and set up a state within the state in Eastern Ukraine. Even
more significant is that by having good words for Putin Trump has set himself
in complete opposition to the Washington and NATO establishments for whom
virtually nothing good can come out of the Kremlin.
For Canada, this means that there may be even
greater pressure from the supporters of Ukraine on the Canadian government not
to imitate a possible US disengagement in Ukraine. Symbolic measures may be
continued and the same speeches repeated, but Canadian and even EU support will
not protect the Ukraine from a having to face a major re-assessment of its own
position. Furthermore, if President-elect Trump follows up on his idea of
forging a new relationship with President Putin, it will increase the pressure
on the Canadian government to activate the normalisation of its own
relationship with Russia.
On the Russian side, the reaction to the
election of an unusual politician has been suitably reserved. In the days of
the Soviet Union criticism that was privately levelled toward legendary Soviet
Foreign Minister Gromyko was that his policy in relation to the US was to await
the return of a Russia friendly president such as Roosevelt (FDR not Teddy).
Gromyko might have smiled on the morning of November 9th.
GB
President-elect is not President yet...
Experts on free trade issues in the U.S. were
somewhat taken aback by the excessively rapid reaction of Canadian PM Justin
Trudeau and his ministers to the Donald Trump's pre-election statements on his
determination to dismantle NAFTA. The reaction had been even more surprising in
light of the fact that the president-elect had evidently softened many of his
previous claims.
BGN sources in Washington are certain that
there will be no dismantling of NAFTA but rather some business-like
negotiations of some outdated elements of the agreement. One has to keep in
mind that in future interactions with such a shrewd negotiator and deal-maker
as Donald Trump, it would be beneficial to keep your cards close to the chest.
Barely afloat...
Russian parliament Duma has approved the first
reading of its 3-year budget. On the positive side - the only positive side of
that monumental document - is that Russian economy will not sink further.
Although the growth will be minimal, not more that 1.5%, it marks a certain
improvement after 3 years of free fall. The budget is based on the projected
oil prices of 40$ per barrel. This brings the necessity of total austerity and
cuts on everything except for military spending.
It would be however reasonably to assume that
Kremlin's transparency about its economic hardships could signal its readiness
for a major negotiated compromise with the West concerning Syria and Ukraine.
All depends whether Russian expectations of President Trump's willingness to
change the course as he claimed during his election campaign will materialize.
Trump's recent conversation with Vladimir Putin and appointment of allegedly
more sympathetic to Russia Mike Flynn as National Security adviser points to
this direction.
Who will care about Ukraine?
Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul’s
Twitter message on election night: Biggest loser in the world tonight--
Ukraine. Your only hope is to get really serious about reform and keep Euros
supportive.
Kindred spirits
Dmitry Peskov, President Putin’s Press
Secretary, on CNN, November 11
"If our two leaders, I mean the current
Russia's leader, President Putin, and President-elect Trump are wise enough to
have a political will to talk to each other ... then we'll really have a chance
to talk and to try to solve the problems being constructive," Peskov said.
"Because what we have currently is a very lousy relationship."
"They seem to be very pragmatic, both of
them," Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Christiane Amanpour. "We've
heard Mr. Trump mentioning overwhelming priority of America's national
interests. And the same is being proclaimed by President Putin. He's very
consistent in that, saying that Russia and Russia's people's prosperity and
their national interests are the main objective and main priority."
He continued: "But at the same time they
both expressed a readiness to develop good relations with other countries in
the world ... this is a very good, very positive coincidence in my
opinion."
One, two, three?
Rumen Radev will become Bulgaria’s next
president Radev, the former commander of
Bulgaria’s Air Force, is a relative newcomer to politics and is supported by
the opposition socialist party. His election is seen as a boost for Russia and
a letdown to western allies, as he is considered to be Russia-friendly
Igor Dodon is to become the next president of
Moldova with a 55% victory of the popular vote. A loss of trust in pro-European
leaders appears to have helped Dodon who wants to restore close ties with
Russia.
The election of two “Russia-friendly”
presidents may have limited political consequences in itself. It is, however,
revealing of the fact that being perceived as pro-Russian is not an obstacle to
an electoral victory.
The authors
Ilya Gerol,
former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in
Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His
particular area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern
and Central Europe. Ilya Gerol has
written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, had become a textbook on
relations of media and society.
During his
career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at
the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first
posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008
to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as
Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to
2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE
Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to
1997.
