THE BRETON/GEROLNEWSLETTER
INTER-ESTABLISHMENT CONFRONTATION IN WASHINGTON AND ITS WORLD-WIDE IMPACT
Even before
the current crisis,-some are calling it more serious than the Watergate affair,
few were truly neutral about President Trump. His inadequate reaction to global
and local events, questionable morality, controversial decisions taken only to
be reversed the next morning, shocking and often vulgar tweets and statements,
his ambiguous relationship with the facts and his innate conviction that big
politics is akin to running a business always made Trump the most unusual and
odd president of the United States in recent memory. In two years on the job
Trump managed simultaneously to ruin US relations with Europe, China, NATO,
Canada, Mexico and further destroy already poor relations with Russia.
Furthermore Trump is constantly in conflict with members of his own
administration and the American intelligence community. And here comes the main
paradox of the realities in Washington: Trump's approval rating is slightly
over 40%, surprisingly high for the level of scandals around him. The other
side of this paradox is the curious duality of the administration: while Trump
deals with all the shenanigans and controversies, his administration carries on
with day to day business in almost a professional way.
More clarity
can, however, be expected after the November 6th midterm elections. If the
Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives or the Senate (or
both) the fate of the 45th President could change dramatically.
--o--
CANADA'S FUTILE AUGUST ATTEMPTS TO RESURRECT NAFTA
Those who
predicted that Trump's unpredictability had limits were obviously wrong. His
sudden announcement that the US and Mexico had reached the "biggest
ever" deal, replacing NAFTA, was an exaggeration. It simultaneously
insulted Canada. Apparently Canada was not even consulted during the lengthy
bilateral negotiations between US and Mexico. Canadian politicians and experts
interpreted this demonstrative snub to Canada as Trump's wish to prove that
NAFTA no longer exists. Ottawa was given an ultimatum of sorts: to join the
US-Mexico deal as it is or be slapped with high tariffs on Canadian automotive
production.
Chrystia
Freeland postponed her umpteenth visit to Ukraine and flew to Washington in an
attempt to resolve this stand-off. Canada is, so far, on the losing end in this
crusade against NAFTA initiated by Donald Trump.
Canada is
also facing the real threat of losing a share of American markets due to high
tariffs on Canadian industrial and agricultural products. Canadian foreign
policy needs a combination of flexibility and firmness that the Trudeau
government is evidently lacking.
--o--
PUTIN'S VISIT TO AUSTRIA (PLEASURE AND BUSINESS) AND GERMANY (STRICTLY BUSINESS)
Putin's August
18th visit to Austria lasted only one hour. He came to attend the wedding
of Austrian Foreign Minister Kneissl. Putin was accompanied by a renowned Cossack
folk song choir. The Russian president spoke fluent German in his
congratulatory address to the newlyweds and even danced with the bride.
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| President Putin congratulating Foreign Minister Kneissl |
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| ...with Chancellor Kurz looking on |
It is
highly unlikely that President Putin would do anything of such lighthearted
nature without some deeper reasons. Among remarkable guests at the wedding was
Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz. His country will chair the European Union
for the next half a year, a very important span of time for Russia to energize
those in EU that are opposed to sanctions against Russia. Another significant
conversation that Putin managed to have at the wedding was with Mohammed
Barkindo, Secretary General of OPEC (its center of operations is in Vienna).
Ups and downs of oil prices have a direct impact on the oil-dependent Russian
economy. Therefore anything to do with the business of OPEC, especially its
decisions to increase or decrease the oil output is of paramount concern to
Putin. Another aspect, not covered by the media at all, was that if Nord Stream
2 is implemented, Austria will become a central distributing hub for the Russia
gas flow into Western Europe.
Right from
the wedding Putin flew to Germany to meet Angela Merkel at her private
residence near Berlin. Both leaders briefly discussed Ukraine and Syria, but
the main point was the same important project of Nord Stream-2. Putin concurred
with Merkel that Ukraine will remain a transit point for the Russian gas
parallel to Nord Stream-2 project. Also, both sides inched closer to the idea
of introducing UN peacekeepers in the Donbass region, while confirming Moscow
and Berlin's adherence to Minsk II agreement.
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| Chancellor Merkel and President Putin meeting at Schloss Meseberg, August 18th |
What adds
to the complexities of every decision made in Berlin and other major EU
countries in relations to economic or peace deals with Russia is the ever
present reality of American pressure and Donald Trump's often unpredictable
moves.
--o--
FOR UKRAINE OR FOR POROSHENKO
Since the
signing of the Minsk II Agreement in 2015, there has been virtually no progress
on resolving the crisis in Ukraine. Other issues do arise but Ukraine remains
the most important source of conflict between the US and Russia and between the
EU and Russia. The Presidential election scheduled for March 2019 and President
Poroshenko now regularly polls under the 10% threshold. Even worse he is no
longer in second position: some polls have him in fifth position.
As
President, Poroshenko can still enjoy the support of Ukraine’s steadfast
allies. There is, however, a distinct lack of enthusiasm in going the extra
mile to bolster his status. The fact that he could only secure the attendance
of National Security Adviser John Bolton, rather than the more senior US
official he was expecting, for this year’s Independence Day celebrations in
late August confirms this. As a candidate for a second term, with slowly but
surely decreasing prospects, he may be tempted to use the time remaining in his
presidency to promote policies and positions that might give him back the hope
of a longer political life. The trouble, so to speak, is that the policies in
question are merely a rearranging of the chairs on the deck of his own sinking
ship.
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| President Poroshenko greeting John Bolton, August 24th, Kyiv |
For
instance, Whereas Poroshenko initially couched his initiative to seek the
creation of one autocephalous Ukrainian church as a spiritual endeavour, he has
now taken off the gloves and called it what it really is, a jab at he Russian
Orthodox Church and at its Patriarch as close ally of Vladimir Putin.
A few
months ago, Poroshenko was not so certain about the overall cancellation of the
Ukraine-Russia Friendship Agreement. He now has issued instructions for
measures to be taken to abrogate the Agreement. In the same vein Poroshenko had
his UN Ambassador state that Ukraine was preparing a few nasty surprises for
Russia at this year’s UN General Assembly.
Poroshenko’s
attempts to regain the support of the nationalist electorate are not likely to
change his political fortunes. These measures may indeed annoy Russian
officialdom. Whether they serve to advance long-term Ukrainian interests is a
moot point.
--o--
CASPIAN SEA: FIVE COUNTRIES SIGN DEAL TO END DISPUTE
Russia,
Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, the countries bordering the
Caspian Sea, have agreed in principle on how to divide it up. The leaders of
the five countries signed the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea
in Aktau, Kazakhstan. It establishes a formula for dividing up its resources
and prevents other powers from setting up a military presence there.
It is an
important step in the easing of regional tensions. It would be reasonable to
assume that the Caspian Sea is, well, a sea. But at the heart of this
long-running dispute is whether or not the 370,000 km2 body of landlocked water
should be considered as a lake. Until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991,
that is how it was known. It was shared between the USSR and Iran. The current
agreement settles this dispute to a large extent. The agreement gives the body
of water a "special legal status" which means it is not defined as a
sea or a lake, officials involved in the deal claimed.
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| Leaders of Caspian Sea countries, August 12th, Aktau |
The surface
water will be in common usage, meaning freedom of access for all participatory
states. The seabed, which is rich in natural resources (oil and gas) and the
fishing areas (including the sturgeon habitat, a source of invaluable black
caviar) will be divided up.
The loser
of the deal is probably Iran that will have lesser access compared to other
participants. Already some Iranian news agencies have criticized the agreement.
--o--
SYRIA, ONE REGION AFTER THE OTHER
The forces
of President Assad and their various allies seem to have regained full control
of the southeastern part of the country. The problem of how this would be seen
in Israel and in Jordan may, however, not have been entirely resolved. The
presence of Russian military forces, among other areas, in the Golan Heights
and the assurances offered by President Putin to PM Netanyahu and to King
Abdallah may have quieted matters for the time being, but the presence of Iranian
forces in relative proximity to Israel is matter over which Israel will want a
long-term solution that includes the departure of Iranian units.
Assad
forces are now moving North in the direction of Idlib for the next major
offensive aimed at regaining territory occupied by rebel forces. The Idlib
region is where the rebel forces expelled from other regions have concentrated.
It is also close to the area occupied by the Turkish army and the area occupied
by US-supported Kurdish forces. Dealing with the rebels is only the beginning.
For Assad and his Russian allies, the other task is to assuage the concerns of
Turkish President Erdogan and eventually to have him bring his troops back
home. The related problem is the proximity of Kurdish forces that are the
pretext for Turkey’s military presence. The latest rumour is that the US may be
offering a deal that would see it leave most areas of Syria, including the
Kurdish region, in exchange for the departure of Iranian forces from the
vicinity of Israel. There would also be some other elements to the proposed
deal including, for good measure, access to Syrian oil resources for US
companies. The Syrian side has reportedly refused the deal. The Idlib battle
could be a long and complicated affair.
In late
August, while in Israel, National Security Adviser reiterated the warning that
there would be serious consequences to any other use of chemical weapons by the
Syrian Army. Shortly after, in the context of the upcoming Idlib offensive, the
Russian Ministry of Defence warned of possible chemical attack provocations on
the part of rebels. The UK representative at the UN called this non-sense. By
starting the public relations battle even before the incident takes place, the
Russian side is securing a modest tactical advantage.
Finally,
some Arab observers have noted that, should the upcoming Syrian Army’s Idlib
offensive be successful at weakening further the position of the Islamic State,
this could have as a side effect to hasten the passage of the Islamic State
from an entity defending territory to one committing random acts of terrorism
in various locations, a sobering prospect.
--o--
MAN OF THE
MONTH: ALEXEI KUDRIN
Current
Auditor General and former long-time minister of finance of the Russian
Federation, Alexei Kudrin has always positioned himself between constantly
feuding sectors of conservatives and liberals within the Russian corridors of
power. Kudrin also happened to work at St.Petersburg City Hall at the same time
as Vladimir Putin. Both were Deputy Mayors under then Mayor Anatoly Sobchak,
Putin’s acknowledged mentor.
As a highly
qualified and respected economist, Kudrin always skillfully resisted rapid
increases in the Russian military budget. That opposition eventually pitted him
against powerful heads of the Russian military industrial complex and upper
echelons in the Ministry of Defense. He was a champion of raising retirement
age to 62 for women and 65 for men aligning Russia's pension policies to that
of other European states. The then Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, in order
to secure shallow populist appeal among voters, publicly denounced and fired
Kudrin from the government.
Vladimir
Putin, when he took over from Medvedev as President, in recognition of Kudrin's
abilities made him one of his economic advisers and recently appointed him
Auditor General, a position where he does not come under the supervision of his
rival Dmitry Medvedev, but in which he can play a significant role in the management
of government affairs. Currently Alexei Kudrin is in charge of the main scourge
of Russian life,-deep and institutionalized corruption. Kudrin
Some
observers believe that Alexei Kudrin still has a political future when Putin
will finally let Medvedev go.
--o--
JOHN McCAIN (1936-2018)
Now that he
has passed away after a long illness, it would be Inappropriate and disrespectful
to go after John McCain policy record. Historians will have plenty of time to
do this later.
The fact is
that he developed a reputation of great integrity and that he was a significant
figure in US foreign policy for virtually the whole time of his tenure as a
member of the US Senate. It is not to disparage John McCain to observe that
there might not have been the same outpouring of sympathy and admiration for
him had any other person than Donald Trump been the US President. McCain’s
honesty and human qualities so contrast with what we see everyday of the
street-smart President that his departure is felt even more deeply.
No doubt on
the basis of his own personal experience in Vietnam, McCain was to the end of
his life, a believer in the role of America as the liberator of oppressed
people. This put him in diametrical opposition to Vladimir Putin. McCain was in
the room when Vladimir Putin delivered his famous 2007 Munich speech in which it
went after the very US foreign policy for which McCain was one of the most fervent
apologists. The relationship between them was never going to be friendship.
McCain instead befriended those he saw as standing up to Russia, especially former
Georgian President Saakashvili and current Ukrainian President Poroshenko. His views
of Russia were probably summarized in one of his most famous quotes: "It
is a gas station run by a mafia that is masquerading as a country ».
Official
Russian coverage of McCain death was initially matter-of-fact. Itar Tass for
instance simply finished its relevant news item by this line: “McCain was one
of the staunchest supporters of anti-Russian sanctions and was known for his
harsh criticism of Moscow”. A few legislators even had some kind words about
McCain’s character. Others were not so kind and went as far as to call him a
war criminal. One news channel even recalled that it was a Russian missile that
downed McCain aircraft over North Vietnam, living the reader to draw his own
conclusions about the true reasons for McCain’s disdain for Putin’s Russia.
The comment
has been made that even after McCain there would be to advocate similar
policies. For now, there is certainly no one of his stature.
--o--
BRIEFLY NOTED
RUSSIA
In an
unusually lengthy and somewhat dramatic address to the nation, President Putin
acknowledged that the planned pension reform was too drastic and painful. In
its original form the pension reform proposal, that had been suddenly
introduced on the opening day of the recent World Cup in Russia, foresaw that
the retirement age for women would be raised from 55 to 63 and for men from 60
to 65. This announcement triggered an unprecedented wave of social protests.
Apart from economic hardships, those changes touched a nerve with most Russians
because the pension system introduced in 1932 remained a sort of sacred cow in
a country with low life expectancy. Taking into account popular discontent,
Putin offered a compromise by which the retirement age for women will go up to
60 instead of 63. For men it will however still move up to 65.
Putin's
main motivation behind this move was his desire to curb the fall of his
approval rating that which has been steadily coming down and now hovers just
above 60%.
UKRAINE
Kiev and
self-proclaimed breakaway republics in Donbass have announced back-to-school
ceasefire. While the hostilities somewhat subsided the conflict continues.
President Macron's unexpected statement on the Ukrainian crisis, that was not
well received in Ukraine, suggested that the US-backed idea of bringing
international peacekeepers to Donbass should be scrapped for the time being.
According to Macron, it would be better to concentrate on the realization of
Minsk agreements in closer cooperation with Russia.
US-RUSSIA
Russian
Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and US National Security Adviser
John Bolton met in Geneva on August 23rd
for a prolonged, substantial and, according to Russian sources,
constructive discussion. According to Bolton, the discussions covered “the
whole range of issues that the two countries have on non-proliferation, on arms
control, on a range of bilateral issues, counterterrorism, illegal immigration,
cyber-related issues, regional issues, like Syria, the broader Middle East,
Afghanistan, and Ukraine”. There was no joint statement at the end of the
meeting on account of the disagreement over whether or not Russia meddled in US
elections.
CHINA
In an
unusually sharp rebuke to President Trump's recent assertion of China's alleged
secret assistance to North Korea in their attempts to circumvent its
obligations the Chinese Foreign Ministry condemned the tone and substance of
American accusations. China however continues to be the main provider of food
and fuel to North Korea and has no intention to break its historic ties with
the regime in Pyongyang.
CZECH REPUBLIC
Milos
Zeman, president of Czech Republic has become first leader of the EU country to
call for lifting economic sanctions against Russia. According to Zeman, both
the European countries and Russia are losers in that lengthy and futile
practice. Zeman might be the first EU head of state to openly voice his
opposition to the anti-Russian sanction, but he is not alone because a number
of his European counter-parts (specifically in Italy and Austria) may not be
saying it outright but nevertheless quietly support this idea.
SAUDI ARABIA
Media
reports from Saudi Arabia say Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman has met with the
visiting leader of Russia's Chechnya region, Ramzan Kadyrov. The reports said
the talks were held at Mina Palace in Jeddah in August 21, with the crown
prince and Kadyrov exchanging regards on the occasion of the Muslim holiday of
Eid al-Adha. Kadyrov has made private visits to Saudi Arabia and several other
Middle Eastern countries in recent years, leading commentators to conclude that
Russia is using the head of the mostly Muslim-populated North Caucasus region
to promote Kremlin interests among the influential leaders of the Arab world.
Saudi Arabia has recently increased its investments in Chechnia's oil industry
and number of religious institution, mosques, Islamic schools and cultural
centers.
THE AUTHORS
Ilya Gerol,
former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in
Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His
particular area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern
and Central Europe. Ilya Gerol has
written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, had become a textbook on
relations of media and society.
During his
career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at
the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet
period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and
Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for
Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil
servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions
and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.
