THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER
WHITE HOUSE 1, KREMLIN 0
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| Secretary of State Tillerson and Foreign Minister Lavrov, Moscow, April 11th, |
It is not
the unusually chilly atmosphere of the posh mansion of the Russian Foreign
Ministry reception house where the ministers held their meeting and in the
Kremlin, where the Russian President, after a long hesitation, received
Tillerson for a two-hour long discussion that will be remembered. It will rather
be the fact that at no time did the parties show any serious
will to compromise on main issues: Syria and Ukraine. It was confirmed by both
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin as well as by their foreign ministers that
never before in modern history the relations between two leading nuclear powers
were at such a dangerously low level. Even during the Cuban missile crisis (1962)
President Kennedy and Russian leader Khrushchev looked for a compromise and
finally found it. Today's ultimatum-like formula several times repeated by Rex
Tillerson during his meetings at G-7 in Italy and in Moscow sounded far more
threatening; "either you are with us or you are against us". Even
more dangerous was the fact that Tillerson's formula was interpreted by Sergey
Lavrov as a direct threat.
In many
ways the Russian position was even more blunt and stubborn. Moscow continued to
categorically deny any possibility that Assad's government used Sarin gas,
despite strong evidence and some classified documents that were introduced by
the American side such as intercepted conversations between Syrian military
command and specialists on chemical weapons. Even China was convinced that
Assad crossed the line. Consequently Beijing abstained during the vote at the
UN Security Council condemning Syria (Russia used its veto for the 8th time
during the last 6 years of the Syrian conflict).
A couple of
positive points in the overall grim picture: both sides' realistic assessment
that relations between those two nuclear heavy-weights cannot deteriorate any
further, agreement to create working groups to determine the exact irritant
points in the relationship, while Russia promptly restored the lines of communications
between military commands in Syria.
Considering
what Russia had hoped to gain by seeing Donald Trump as president, the result
of the US State Secretary's visit and the overall anti-Russian tone of the
Administration can be interpreted as a huge political setback for Putin's
Russia. The unfolding crisis in the Korean peninsula only adds to that
tendency.
--o--
CASUALTIES OF A DIFFERENT ORDER
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| A crater is seen at the site of an airstrike, after what rescue workers described as a suspected gas attack in the town of Khan Sheikhoun in rebel-held Idlib, Syria April 4, 2017. © Ammar Abdullah / Reuters |
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| US Ambassador Haley at the special meeting of the Security Council on Syria, April 5th, 2017 |
Given the gravity of the accusations as well the outright denials by the leaders of Syria and Russia, a minimum of circumspection might have been expected before action is taken. In a case like this the international community might also have been expected to achieve a consensus over the need to seek a thorough examination of the facts.
Casualties related to the use of chemical weapons understandably carry a far greater emotional charge. Extreme indignation is a natural reaction. There are some problems with the reaction of the US President.
Trump said “that the video of children suffering from the chemical attack has changed very much his view of Syria and Assad”. Of all the evidence that has been produced thus far, the incriminating video turns out to be the one piece that raised the most questions, unlike the intelligence-based evidence that Secretary of State Tillerson brought to Moscow a week after the incident.
Furthermore, the military response, within 72 hours, was unusually quick for an event of this nature. As noted above, The French government only produced its evidence three weeks after the incident.
The response was spectacular: the early morning launch of cruise missiles was even described as beautiful by one senior US commentator.
The response was targeted, but altogether ineffective. The response, in the form of 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles, was clearly directed at the alleged perpetrators’ base, the Syrian Air Force facilities in Shayrat. It was even claimed by some senior US officer as having destroyed the means for Syria to deliver chemical weapons. Planes were, however, flying out of that base the day after the US attack. Ultimately, the military reaction, which was spun as the act of a decisive leader, was not even commensurate with the alleged level of indignation.
The US President’s decision in favour of a military response also contradicted his own previous September 2013 calls for President Obama not to attack Syria.
--o--
HISTORY VS PSYCHIATRY
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| Kim Jung-un saluting participants of the military parade marking the 105th anniversary of his grand-father Pyongyang, April 15th, 2017 |
Neglect or
ignorance of history seems like an integral part of today's approach to key
world events. There is some attraction in discussing the psychopathic behavior
of Kim Jong-un; his Chaplinesque look and semi-idiotic smiles, for example. But
to those who are familiar with the last year of the Korean War (1950-1953), the
current situation is not unusual. Chairman Mao explained in his letter to
Joseph Stalin the stubborn behavior of the besieged North Korean leader Kim
Il-sung (the grandfather of current Kim): "he is obsessed by petty
calculations rather than a strategic approach". At that time it took Mao
some serious efforts to force Kim to the negotiating table. China even
threatened to cut military aid leaving the North to its own destiny. As the
result the armistice agreement was signed in Panmunjom (the Demilitarized Zone
which still divides North and South Korea). The current Kim's "petty
calculations" are part of the same pattern used by his grandfather: military threats used to secure concessions and economic aid from the West.
This time however China has more to lose and it seems like it is applying
unseen before political and economic pressure on its stubborn ally. This
probably will be the best way to avoid all out war.
--o--
UKRAINE:
ARE THERE OTHER PIECES TO THIS PUZZLE?
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President Porosheko and Belarus President Lukashenko
Kyiv, April 26th, 2017
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| President Poroshenko and UK Prime Minister Theresa May London, April 19th, 2017 |
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| Preisent Poroshenko and Danish Prime Minister Rasmussen Copenhagen, April 5th, 2017 |
At the G-7
foreign ministers’ meeting in Italy on April 11, Secretary of State Rex
Tillerson asked his counterparts: “Why should U.S. taxpayers be interested in
Ukraine?” Later on, this was confirmed by his spokesperson, but described as a
“rhetorical” question. A strong impression nevertheless remains. This would be
one of the few cases where the Trump administration has been consistent with
the Trump campaign’s “America first” mantra.
On April
25th, 2018 USAID budget proposals were made public. The budget for Ukraine
would plummet from $570 million to $177 million.
Around
April 21st, the rumour surfaced that the Trump administration might
appoint a special envoy to communicate directly with Vladislav Surkov,
President Putin’s point man on Ukraine. The idea would be to negotiate an end
to the conflict in eastern Ukraine, a matter which has been the raison d’être
of the “Normandy Four”(France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine) discussions, but in
which the US has not been a direct participant.
The
coincidence of the Trump administration disinterest in Ukraine and its interest
in direct discussions with Moscow offers little to cheer about in Kyiv. This
would explain why President Poroshenko has kept a very busy schedule of meeting
with his European counterparts, ostensibly working to firm up the support for
Ukraine among European allies and neighbours (including Belarus).
There has
now been on April 23rd a phone conversation between Tillerson and Poroshenko. For
Poroshenko, the main objective was to set a date for his first meeting with
Trump. This was also the occasion for Poroshenko to seek a reiteration of the
“nothing on Ukraine without Ukraine” US policy, a reflection of the
preoccupations in Kyiv about the approach of the Trump administration. In the
immediate aftermath of the deadly incident involving a US member of the OSCE
Special Monitoring Mission, he also took advantage of the moment to re-launch
the idea of a UN Peacekeeping Mission for the Donbass.
In the
meantime, on the ground in Eastern Ukraine the military stalemate is showing no
signs of alteration. The economy and the infrastructure of the rebel regions are
increasingly becoming more dependent on Russia. The indeterminate suspension of
electrical power supplies to the insurgent-run area of the Lugansk region, as
of April 25th, is the most recent example of this.
In all the
above-noted existing or proposed conversations, it is difficult to find any
sign of a possible political resolution of the conflict. Even the rumoured more
regular direct conversations between Presidents Putin and Poroshenko do not
seem to bring any result, other than preventing a worsening of the situation.
Whereas the
UN Peacekeeping proposal would run the risk of freezing the conflict for many
more years, it might be the way for the government in Kyiv to rein in the
private militias and give the official army a greater role or, if nothing else,
to create embarrassment in Moscow.
Russia has already made clear that peacekeeping arrangements would have to be
agreed with the authorities in the rebel regions, an unlikely scenario as Kyiv
remains unwilling to have direct exchanges with these authorities.
--o--
PERSONALITY OF THE MONTH
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| Emmanuel Macron, Facebook photograph |
Though the
second round of elections in France will take place on May 7th, it can already be stated
with a great degree of probability: Emmanuel Macron will become the 5th
Republic's 8th president. Of course it is not exactly the same 5th Republic
envisioned by General Charles de Gaulle in 1958 when he introduced the most
radical political reforms, but it is still a strong presidential system.
For the
first time since 1958 in France and first time ever in Europe voters decisively
rejected both mainstream political parties (in France it was Socialists and
Republicans) while catapulting two outsiders into the final round.
Emmanuel
Macron, born in 1977, is an economist and former investment banker. Until he formed his political movement En Marche! a year ago, he never had political
affiliations. At the same time, the outgoing Socialist president,
Francois Hollande, publicly threw his support behind the candidacy of Macron going
into the second round.
Emmanuel
Macron is pro-EU, he supports cultural integration of immigrants and though not overtly against Russia is critical of Putin's steps in Syria and Ukraine.
It has to
be noted that Jean-Luc Mélanchon the left-wing candidate and a practicing
Marxist who surprisingly collected slightly more than 19 % of popular vote in
the first round refused to endorse Macron against Le Pen mainly because his
anti-EU stand is very much similar to Marine Le Pen's.
Nevertheless, barring
some extraordinary events or cataclysms that are always possible, Macron has a
chance to become a successful and a long term president of his currently
polarized country.
--o--
BRIEFLY NOTED
KAZAKHSTAN-TURKMENISTAN
Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev and Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, his
Turkmenistan counterpart, have signed a strategic partnership treaty on April 18 in Astana, capital of Kazakhstan The treaty is designed to resolve long lasting border disputes between the two countries. In answering questions from the press, Nazarbayev declared that Kazakhstan and
Turkmenistan will be the only two countries in Central Asia without border
problems. The second phase of the negotiations will deal with agreements combating
cross-border money laundering and the financing of terrorist-related activities in the region. Altogether eight other
documents are expected to be signed, including an information sharing treaty
between branches of both countries' foreign ministries.
KAZAKHSTAN
President Nazarbayev has publicly supported the long proclaimed desire of Kazakh intelligentsia and youth to switch the Kazakh language from the Cyrillic to the Latin alphabet. He has now instructed the government to initiate the move. In his article for Kazakh newspaper Egemen Kazakhstan, he outlined that now when all young people are familiar with English the switch would be more natural and beneficial to the country's future. The process will go on for a decade during which the Cyrillic alphabet will be in use as well.
President Nazarbayev has publicly supported the long proclaimed desire of Kazakh intelligentsia and youth to switch the Kazakh language from the Cyrillic to the Latin alphabet. He has now instructed the government to initiate the move. In his article for Kazakh newspaper Egemen Kazakhstan, he outlined that now when all young people are familiar with English the switch would be more natural and beneficial to the country's future. The process will go on for a decade during which the Cyrillic alphabet will be in use as well.
TURKEY-RUSSIA
For the
first time since the early 40s representatives of all Kurdish factions will
assemble in Moscow. The meeting could be considered as semi-official. It has, however, already raised some eyebrows in Turkey: even the remote possibility of
independent Kurdistan is considered by Ankara a national nightmare.
The
increasing cooperation between Moscow strategists and Kurdish nationalists will
undoubtedly become a serious issue preventing further improvement of relations
between Turkey and Russia. Kurdish nationalist factions have begun to attract an
array of rather contradictory forces: Russia, US, Israel, Europe and
even China. The only player which finds itself excluded from that
amalgamation is Turkey, the country that stands to lose the most should independent Kurdistan become a fact.
MONGOLIA
It was
proudly announced in Ulaanbaatar, capital of Mongolia, that the country had
launched its first satellite (Mongol Sat-1). For that land-locked country this
satellite will improve its communication systems and bring it closer to the
world community of nations.
RUSSIA
Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister made a
controversial visit to the breakaway republic of Abkhazia - one of the two enclaves that
separated from Georgia and proclaimed independence in 2008 after a brief war
between Russia and Georgia. This visit however was carried out with one
intention in mind: to emphasize that while South Ossetia, the other enclave, will
probably be soon incorporated into Russia, Abkhazia will remain quasi independent
for the time being.
MOLDOVA
On April 3rd President
Dodon signed a memorandum on cooperation between Moldova and the Eurasian Economic
Union, effectively undermining further ties between his country and
Brussels. It came with one condition attached: Moldova insisted that Russia
would not extend recognition to the so-called Trans-Dniester republic, the enclave that split from Moldova in the early 1990's after the collapse of the USSR.
--o--
THE AUTHORS
Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His particular area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe. Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, had become a textbook on relations of media and society.
During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.
