THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER
EUROPE'S NEW FACE:-REFLECTION OF A GLOBAL TREND
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| Viktor Orban |
Elections
in the European parliament in May brought expected yet impressive results.
Almost 170 of the elected members (25% of the highest European political body)
will belong to the so-called "Euro-skeptics", predominately right
wingers, populists and various nationalists. The more stunning success belongs
to Nigel Farage and his party which summarizes all of his agenda in one word: Brexit.
He got 30 seats in the Euro parliament, more than the traditional pillars of
the British politicum, Labour and the
Conservatives.
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| Matteo Salvini |
It is
widely agreed that two political leaders have become the founding fathers of
the growing movement of Euro skeptics: Viktor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary
and Matteo Salvini, Vice Premier of Italy. They were the most active in
resisting the so-called progressive ideology of the EU with its unlimited
immigration, mandatory immigrant and refugee quotas imposed by Brussels on each
member state. Coincidentally or not, both Salvini, Orban, Austrian Chancellor
Kurtz and some others who belong to this 25% of the new make up in the EU
Parliament also would like to put an end to anti-Russian sanctions imposed on
Moscow since 2014. Rather the reflection of any special affinity, this seems
more a case of rejecting failing traditional policies.
From
Australia to Europe and on to the US and maybe even to Canada (the October 2019
election will tell if this is so) this trend is taking over. Not exclusively
but in many ways we are witnessing popular rejection and fatigue with Justin
Trudeau-like yoga mat policies and overly politicized dogmas.
--o--
PRESIDENT ZELENSKY
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| President Zelensky at the front line positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Luhansk region, May 27th ©President of Ukraine Website |
Volodimir
Zelensky’s inaugural speech as President of Ukraine contained a rather punchy
line about his willingness to sacrifice his popular rating in order to do the
right thing. The short clip that was shown on some television channels did not
always establish clearly that it was in connection with the conflict with the
rebels in Eastern Ukraine that he was making the statement. Zelensky has made
it one of his priorities to put an end to the armed conflict in that region,
thus shifting the emphasis from the conduct of what Poroshenko called at some
point an Anti-Terrorist Operation to a conflict resolution process. Zelensky
also went further by arguing that it is not so much the rebel-occupied
territory that Kyiv must regain but also the minds of the people living in that territory.
How Zelensky proposes to go about this peace-making and reconciliation is not
yet clear. Politically, there can no real or perceived concession in favour of Moscow
and Vladimir Putin. Some form of accommodation with the rebel regions had also
been considered as a non-starter under the Poroshenko presidency and perhaps
even more with the Parliament that was just dissolved by Zelensky. Although the
main motives invoked to call early elections were the parliamentarians’ focus
on self-enrichment and the population’s loss of confidence towards them, having
a parliament that is more in line with the new president on the key issue of
how to deal with the Donbass problem is of vital importance. At this stage,
Zelensky does not necessarily need a parliament that fully shares his views on
this issue, but at least one that is not on the record as rejecting virtually
any kind of arrangement with the rebel regions.
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| President Zelensky with the Foreign Minister of Germany Heiko Maas and the Foreign Minister of France Jean-Yves Le Drian, May 30th, Kyiv ©President of Ukraine Website |
Although
Zelensky has been described as a political novice, this should not be taken to
mean that he cannot play a good political game. His quick decision to reinstate
Mikheil Saakashvili’s Ukrainian citizenship is not only the fulfillment of an
electoral promise. It is also a rather clever way of broadening the support he
would enjoy in the new parliament. Saakshvili is already back in Ukraine. He
will most likely take an active part in the upcoming parliamentary election
campaign and use the opportunity to exact some form of revenge against former
President Poroshenko who ran him out of the country. The prospects for
Poroshenko’s party were not too bright already. With Saakashvili going after
him, they are not getting any better. Saakashvili is also useful to Zelensky in
that as the perceived arch-enemy of Vladimir Putin, his return to Ukraine strengthens
Zelensky’s credentials as standing in opposition to Putin.
In the
first weeks of his presidency, Zelensky is moving quickly to deliver on his
electoral platform including the anti-corruption measures, as well as to
establish himself as a credible interlocutor. To use the theater analogy, he is
creating the décor and doing a well thought-out initial mise en scène. He has
already made some significant personnel changes, but does not have the legal
authority to remove key players such as the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the
Minister of Defence or the Head of the Security Service. He has to ask
Parliament to do that. Until he has a Parliament that supports his policies and
allows him to select his cast, his effectiveness remains limited.
--o--
EURASIAN
ECONOMIC UNION IS ALIVE AND KICKING
The fifth
anniversary of the Eurasian Economic Union was marked by a summit of its
members in the Kazakhstan capital of Nur-sultan (recently renamed to honour
Nursultan Nazarbayev, long time president and also only one of three surviving
members of the last Soviet politburo. The other two are Mikhail Gorbachev and
Yegor Ligatchev).
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| The presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan and the First President of Kazakhstan May 29th, Nur-sultan, Kazakhstan ©President of Russia Website |
The presidents
of Russia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan gathered to discuss the
next phase of their countries' integration and further economic development.
The Union will probably joined by Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and some associated
members as Mongolia and Vietnam. In general the economic growth of the Eurasian
Economic Union was at 2.8% annually which is almost in sync with the global
growth.
The Eurasian
Economic Union is studiously avoiding getting engaged in a political
integration process. Its economic integration initiatives, although not as
spectacular, are nevertheless also used as vehicle for modernisation of economic
and trade practices, such as for instance customs clearance practices. In this
respect, their impact is real and long-lasting.
Former
president of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev who was bestowed upon the title of
"Yelbasy" (father of the nation) by grateful subjects was made also
an honorary chairman of the Eurasian Economic Union.
--o--
PERSON OF THE MONTH: THERESA MAY
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| PM Theresa May announcing her retirement, May 24th ©UK PM Website |
Theresa May
will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom until June 7th when
she will step down. May has been in office since July 2016. The country’s
second female Prime Minister after fellow Conservative Leader Margaret
Thatcher, May is a highly experienced politician who took over as Prime Minister
from David Cameron during a period of political uncertainty following Britain’s
referendum approving withdrawal from the European Union. The daughter of a
Church of England clergyman, May was ambitious from the very beginning. She
went to a local grammar school before going to Oxford University to study
geography at St Hugh's College. She embarked on a banking career and a few
years hence she joined the Association for Payment Clearing Services. She
entered the political arena in the 1980s and served as a councillor for the
London Borough of Merton for around eight years. With her political aspirations
on the rise, she made attempts to be elected to the House of Commons in 1992
and 1994, albeit unsuccessfully. After her successful election as the MP for
Maidenhead in the 1997 general election, her career has been on the upswing. As
a politician she favours strict migration laws and is a supporter of same sex
marriages.
May's
political career was eventually destroyed by all the mess around Brexit as she
struggled to find a compromise in the current political climate which is
evidently is not very conducive to compromise. This seems to be the sign of our
times on both sides of the Atlantic. With our own reputation for stubbornness and
secrecy , she struggled not only against stubborn attitudes of parliamentarians
towards everything related to it, but also against the multitude of personal
political agendas of competing politicians from the opposition and even her own
party. It is doubtful that anyone in her place would have fared better. A much
clearer analysis of her effort will be possible some time later when those who
criticized May would be given a chance to prove that they have better solutions
and remedies and that they possess more elastic set of political skills. One
can safely bet that they do not, but until they fail as well, it looks like
Theresa May will be the obvious scapegoat.
--o--
TROUBLE IN THE
BALKANS (AGAIN)
Serbia's
president Aleksandar Vučić declared a state of emergency in the border areas
with Kosovo, the independent state carved out of Serbia proper in 2008. The
formal pretext for the state of emergency was Kosovo's security forces raid not
only into part of Kosovo populated by Serbs but, according to Belgrade, also
into Serbia territory as well. Kosovo denied entering Serbia, but said its raid
was necessitated by the search for criminals on the run.
There are
deeper underlying reasons for the escalation of tensions. President Vučić faces
a dilemma: he wants to bring Serbia into the EU in order to speed up its
economic development and at the same time for the sake of internal politics he
has to exhibit some show of strength towards Albanians in Kosovo. That is why
during his militant speech to the nation he hinted that Serbia will be ready to
recognize Kosovo independence in exchange for a safe and peaceful border.
--o--
RUSSIA IN
THE ARCTIC
Russia has
launched a new nuclear-powered icebreaker as it looks to strengthen its
position in the Arctic Ocean to capitalize on the region's growing commercial potential. At a launch
ceremony in St. Petersburg on May 25, officials toasted the Ural, the third
vessel in a plan to reinforce its fleet with some of the largest and most
powerful icebreakers ever built.
“They are
the ships from new generation icebreakers of that class that we pin our hopes
on in exploration of the Northern Sea Route. It is a principally new
ship," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov said at the ceremony.
 |
| Ural nuclear ice-breaker ©Rosatomflot |
Thawing ice
in the Arctic is beginning to give increased access to much of the planet's
remaining undiscovered reserves of oil and natural gas and large deposits of
zinc, iron, and rare-earth metals, prompting nearby states as well as world
powers such as China to rush and claim territory or boost their presence in the
region.
Moscow's is
locked in a race with rivals Canada, the United States, Norway and China to
dominate the Arctic through a corridor running from Murmansk to the Bering
Strait near Alaska, a faster route for sea cargo traveling from Asia to Europe.
The two
other icebreakers in Russia's Project 22220 series are the Arktika (Arctic) and
Sibir (Siberia). Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia's Arctic
icebreaker fleet could total 13 or more by 2035.
--o--
LITHUANIA
On May 26th
Lithuanians elected a new president in a runoff vote between two center-right
candidates.
The
election, which was held alongside the vote for the European Parliament, was
won by banker-turned-politician Gitanas Nauseda who defeated Ingrida Simonyte,
a lawmaker and former finance minister.
 |
| Gitanas Nauseda |
Nauseda will
succeed Dalia Grybauskaite, who has served the maximum two 5-year terms as
Lithuania's head of state since 2009, a Baltic country bordering Russia that is
a member of the European Union and NATO.
The
election campaign has been dominated by voters' anger over economic inequality
and corruption. Nauseda has pledged to
maintain a strict tone toward Russia, saying he would not travel to Moscow to
meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin until Russia ends its aggression against
Ukraine. He may, however, not be such a vocal critic of Russia as Grybauskaite.
Vilnius
faces tense relations with Moscow. The Baltic country has arrested and charged
several people in recent months accused of spying for Russia.
--o--
KAZAKHSTAN
Tyson
Foods, the largest U.S. meat producer, says it is planning expansion into
Kazakhstan as it seeks growth overseas.
"We've
visited Kazakhstan and have interest in the nation's future food-production
efforts. However, we have not formalized plans for a project there,"
company spokeswoman Liz Croston said in a statement on May 23.
The
Arkansas-based company produces beef, pork, chicken, and processed foods,
including goods for export. Its poultry subsidiary, Cobb-Vantress, has a
presence in Russia."One
of our growth strategies is to expand our global business, so it's not unusual
for us to consider various international opportunities," she said in a
statement e-mailed to RFE/RL.
The
Financial Times reported on May 23 that Tyson was negotiating a
multibillion-dollar investment in beef production in Kazakhstan for potential
export to China. The two countries share a nearly 1,800-kilometer border.
Kazakhstan
is one of the world's largest wheat producers, and has millions of hectares of
arable lands suitable for livestock grazing. However for years the country's
agriculture sector lacked major
investments.
In July
2018, Beijing imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on U.S. beef imports in
retaliation for U.S. levies on Chinese goods. As a result, U.S. beef exports to
China "have dropped off precipitously," the U.S. Department of
Agriculture said in an August 2018 report.
--o--
TURKMENISTAN
Russia's
state-owned energy giant Gazprom says it has resumed imports of natural gas
from Turkmenistan that it stopped three years ago. Turkmengaz confirmed the
move. No details were given about the amount of gas that Russia would buy or at
what price.
Russia was
once the leading importer of Turkmen gas until it was displaced by China in
2010.
Relatively
cheap imports of gas from Turkmenistan and other Central Asian countries
enabled Russia to boost its exports to Europe.
In 2015,
Gazprom announced its intention to cut imports of Turkmen gas to 4 billion
cubic meters per year, down from the 10 billion level that it had been
importing since 2010.
The move
was followed by a complete halt in 2016, putting significant pressure on
Turkmenistan's economy, which is highly dependent on hydrocarbons as a source
of hard currency. Russia's purchase halt came after the collapse of hydrocarbon
prices in 2014.
The move
also came as relations between Moscow and the former Soviet republic became
increasingly strained by a competition to supply the large Chinese gas market.
Turkmenistan
owns the world's fourth-largest known reserves of natural gas, but has limited
infrastructure to export its energy resources.
--o--
ARMENIA
Armenian
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has called for a radical reform of the country's
judiciary, contending that many courts have lost their legitimacy and too many
judges are beholden to the country's former authorities.
Pashinian
said in a speech at a conference attended by Armenia's military, judicial, and
political leaders on May 20th that while the country had formed legitimate
executive and legislative branches of power in the last year, the judicial
system remained under the influence of the former "corrupt
government." He described his plan for judicial reform as the "second
phase" of the bloodless revolution that swept him to power a year ago.
Pashinian said that all judges whose rulings were found unlawful by the
European Court of Human Rights must be dismissed and that he was willing to consider
constitutional amendments to bring about the necessary reforms.
Pashinian,
who came to power after leading a wave of nationwide protests last spring
against longtime leader Serzh Sarkisian, said that all judges must now be
subjected to a “vetting process” that will reveal whether they can serve as impartial
arbiters.
--o--
LATVIA
 |
| Egils Levits |
Egils
Levits descendant of Holocaust victims was elected as president of Latvian
Republic. It has to be noted that Latvia has a sad distinction of having second
largest per capita number of Jews murdered during the WW II (out of 116.00 Jews in Latvia in 1939 only 18.000
survived). Latvian society lived for a long time in the shadow of this horrific
history and often failed to come to terms with it. Election of Levits in many
ways is an important symbolic step towards forgiveness and reconciliation.
--o--
THE AUTHORS
Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His particular area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe. Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, had become a textbook on relations of media and society.
During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.
Gilles Breton also currently serves as Chairman of the National Board of the Canada-Eurasia-Russia Business Association. The views expressed in this newsletter exclusively reflect the opinion of the authors.
