THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER
BUSINESS AS USUAL
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| The Oval Office (Official White House Photo) |
Trump's
grand promises of fundamental changes to US foreign policy came to nothing but a poor imitation and rehashing of policies of his predecessors.
His
pre-election criticism of NATO validity and role ended up in traditional praise
of the alliance and promise of firm support and participation. Trump came to
accept some token increase of expenditures by certain alliance members. In his
statement in respect to the next NATO summit Trump said: "I am very
enthusiastic about the alliance future".
His
election campaign promises to radically improve American relations with Russia are
turning out surprisingly empty. The relations between Washington and Moscow are
even frostier than before. The reason of course is the enormous pressure from
Congress and the US Intelligence community with regard to the ongoing
investigation on possible Russian meddling in the American election process.
Even the case of North Korea and its nuclear threat to the Southern part of
peninsula and to Japan has been approached by the new administration along the
lines worked out by Obama strategists, that includes computer sabotage of
long-range launches - as it probably happened again on the 21st of March when a
North Korean rocket exploded on takeoff.
Over
critical statements towards China also had been replaced by more subdued
"realpolitik". Secretary Rex Tillerson just completed a rather
routine visit to Beijing while President Trump joyfully extended an invitation
for the Chinese leader to visit Washington.
The biggest
surprise to most political pundits is that Trump's foreign policy so far
continues to be business as usual.
--o--
INCIDENTAL IGNORANCE
A very simple fact can become the subject of considerable obfuscation. A person phone is legally under surveillance will likely create a lot of incidental collection if he happens to communicate by phone with a large number of individuals who are not under surveillance. How long does it take a US President or US Congressman to understand that concept? Or are they pretending not to understand in order to create confusion and justify accusations of “tapping the lines”?
Unmasking the identity of an individual whose conversation was the subject of incidental collection is an exceptional process that can only be approved by very senior officials in the intercepting organisation. Anyone who eventually reads the report of that conversation can, however, come to an easy conclusion as to the likely identity of the masked interlocutor. In other words, many officials, not only at senior levels, will know who was saying what. The temptation to leak that information becomes even greater if you believe that it would serve the national interest and harm only one or two imprudent or ignorant individuals, whatever their elevated positions may be.
--o--
UKRAINE, GOOD OR BAD NEWS?
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| President Poroshenko with Ukrainian volunteers, March 14 |
Bad news
can be useful, at times.
The killing
in broad daylight on March 23 in Kyiv of Denis Voronenkov, a former member of the
Russian Duma and, on the same day, the fire that engulfed near Kharkov a
significant part of the largest munitions depot in Europe were not such bad
news for President Poroshenko. The first event he called an act of state
terrorism on the part of Russia, the second an act of sabotage. Whatever the
motive for the killing or the cause for the fire and until they become known
(which is not likely soon), the two events can indeed be used by the President
to support his policy of opposition to Russia. In a context where nationalist
groups have recently denounced the régime in Kyiv, Poroshenko can use the
occasion to present himself as the unifying rampart against Russia, the common
enemy.
Good news
are, however, not always good for you.
The blockade,
since January, of coal shipments from Donbass to the rest of Ukraine has now
turned into a complete cessation of commercial shipments between the two
regions. This is good news for the nationalists who want nothing to do with the
rebel regions. It is not good for the Ukrainian economy as a whole (the
government has acknowledged this) or for the prospects of eventually bringing
the country back together.
In response
to pressure from nationalists who asked for the closure of Russian banks, the
Security Council of Ukraine and the National Bank have introduced sanctions
against the subsidiaries of five Russian banks operating in Ukraine. The
sanctions essentially curtail the normal activities of the banks, for a year.
Protesters have also physically blocked the access to several offices of the
said banks. This leaves virtually no choice for the Russian banks but to
dispose of their Ukrainian assets, if they can. The financial impact on the
Russian banks does not seem to cause much alarm. The impact on the Ukrainian
economy, that can little afford bad news, is unlikely to be positive. For
President Poroshenko, the unpleasant twist in the affair is that it was
suggested that some sort of trade-off could be worked out whereby he would
exchange his chocolate factory assets in Russia for some Russian bank assets in
Ukraine. Poroshenko had promised before his election to dispose of his Russian
assets. The Russian bank (Sberbank) implicated in this story has denied the
existence of a deal.
Poroshenko
is trying to resist the opposition’s call for early parliamentary elections,
but does not have highly visible accomplishments to show, that could strengthen
his position. His efforts to improve the economy are beginning to show some
results, but are threatened by the need to deal with some political elements whose
views he has publicly described as “the worse, the better”. At this time,
events that force the country to close ranks behind him can be more useful. As
for the parliamentary opposition, rumours abound as to who wants to push
Poroshenko aside, but no one has truly emerged as a strong contender. More
“good news” with bad consequences may be needed for one to make a decisive
move. Even then, it is not clear whether replacing the President or the Prime Minister
would significantly change the situation.
--o--
PERSONALITY OF THE MONTH
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| March 24th LePen-Putin meeting |
Marine Le
Pen, the ultra nationalist candidate in the pending presidential elections in
France visited Moscow and met with Vladimir Putin.
Officially
it was "a territorial coincidence"; Le Pen was touring an exhibition
from the Louvre in the Kremlin and there she "accidentally" bumped
into President Putin, who by luck had with him a very capable French
translator.
A 15-minute
sit down was arranged. The issues discussed however were very serious. Marine
Le Pen suggested that if she is to become president the anti-Russian sanctions
will be lifted (at least the French part of it). Crimea will be recognized as
Russian territory according to the results of the 2014 referendum and Frexit
(French version of Brexit) will be seriously considered.
Many French
commentators concluded that such brazen pronouncements may work against Le Pen
not for her. Her advisers however retorted by pointing to the success of Donald
Trump who disregarded traditionally carefully worded approach and stereotypes
and won as a result.
Majority of
political analysts think that Le Pen will be a first round winner of the
elections. In the second round however her chance are slimmer unless she will
gain support from the supporters of conservative candidates like Francois
Fillon.
--o--
NATIONAL OBSESSION AS PART OF JUCHE (SELF-RELIANCE) IDEOLOGY
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| Juche Tower in Pyongyang |
Addressing
his ambassadors in foreign countries, Kim Jong-un, the hereditary leader of North
Korea stated that becoming a full scale nuclear power requires not only the
industrial and scientific might, but also an uncompromising ideological determination.
This goes to the heart of the explanation why North Korea is so pathologically
stubborn, even under the Western pressure to stop its nuclear and ballistic missile
tests.
Considering that Donald Trump's administration has not yet proven its desire and ability to stick to its pre-election variety of promises and threats, the North Korean leadership doesn't take too seriously the possibility of a US military intervention. At the same time the threat of such intervention serves as proven stimulus to bring the impoverished nation together. After all, the memory of the 1952-1953 Korean War is not only lingering in the national memory, but is being constantly reinforced in the form of heroic legends and myths.
There is
one more serious yet underestimated aspect of the current North Korean puzzle:
where does China, the only country with real influence over North Korea stands
in this predicament? On the
surface Beijing supports international efforts to curtail Kim's nuclear
ambitions. It went as far as suspending for a year import of North Korean coal
and issuing several statements of condemnation along with
the US and Japan.
--o--
LUKASHENKO UNDER SIEGE
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| Prsident Lukasheko, visiting a collective farm, March 24 |
--o--
CONFLICT TRIANGLE; WASHINGTON, MOSCOW, ANKARA
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| The flag of independent Kurdistan |
Political
insiders in Russia and the West believe the real reason behind Turkey's
decision to cut the imports is an attempt to put pressure on Russia to prevent
Moscow from its increasing support of Iraqi and Syrian Kurds. The recent
opening of Russian consulate in Erbil, Iraq was a bit too much for Turkey
swallow.
It has to
be noted that Iraqi Kurdistan has become an island of relative democracy and
tranquility in the midst of Middle Eastern turmoil. It has a functional
multi-party parliament, freedom of the press, gender equality (women serve in
the armed forces alongside men) and religious tolerance. Kurdistan has friendly
relations with Israel, Russia and recently with the United States. Moreover the
idea of independent Kurdistan that in future could include Iraqi, Syrian and
even Turkish Kurds has started to get more support in Washington, European
capitals and other among more traditional allies of Kurdish independence.
President Erdogan has every reason to worry: he considers Kurds to be No.1
danger to the future of Islamic Turkey which he so actively constructs.
--o--
INTERVIEW OF THE MONTH
KAZAKHSTAN AND THE WORLD
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| View of Astana, Kazakhstan's capital |
This is the second part of the interview with His Excellency Konstantin V. Zhigalov, Ambassador of Kazakhstan to Canada. In the following excerpt, Ambassador Zhigalov answers BGN's question about Kazakhstan's foreign policy priorities for 2017.
Ambassador Zhigalov: On the international arena, Kazakhstan continued to be recognized a leader in promoting regional and global security, and strongly advocated for regional integration in Eurasia. In this period, Kazakhstan was elected to chair such important regional organizations, as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or OSCE, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and played a key role in establishing the Conference of Interaction and Confidence-Building Measure in Asia, which is the Asian alternative to the OSCE. Kazakhstan has also initiated the Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions, that is convening in Astana every three years since 2003. We have been very active in the United Nations.
The main
achievement of Kazakh diplomacy in recent years was the election as a
non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for 2017–2018. As the first
ever member of the Security Council from Central Asia, Kazakhstan is set to
play an active role as an international mediator in preventing and resolving
conflicts. Among other priorities are: - moving towards a world free of nuclear
weapons; - promoting peace in Afghanistan; - creating a regional peace zone in
Central Asia; - shaping a global antiterrorist coalition (network) under the
auspices of the UN; - promoting the peaceful development of Africa.
Kazakhstan
is gaining more influence in international efforts to bring peace to Middle
East. On 23-24 January 2017, Astana hosted the talks between Syrian government,
opposition groups, and three guarantor states, Russia, Turkey and Iran. The
three countries “reaffirmed their commitment to the sovereignty, independence,
unity and territorial integrity of Syria as a multi-ethnic, multi-religious,
non-sectarian and democratic state, as confirmed by the UN Security Council”.
Another round of talks was held on February 16th. So-called “Astana Process” is
already acknowledged as a successful diplomatic platform which efficiently
supplements the Geneva talks.
On another
note, this year, an important event will take place in Astana, the
International Specialized Exhibition EXPO-2017 with the main topic “Future
Energy”. As of today, 115 countries and 18 international organizations have
officially confirmed their participation in the exhibition, which is one of the
largest numbers of participants in the entire history of EXPO. In 2018, the
Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) will be created on the platform of
the EXPO. Based on the experience of the Dubai International Financial Centre,
the AIFC will be under separate jurisdiction based on the principles of English
common law, with a preferential tax regime and independent financial court. We
believe that Astana Financial Center will become the financial hub for entire
Central Asia and will provide new opportunities for expanding and deepening
partnership between Kazakhstan and Canada.
Regarding
Kazakhstan – Canada bilateral relations, the January 2017 very productive
visit of the Canadian parliamentarians to Astana reaffirmed commitment from
both sides to strengthening political dialogue and partnership in various
areas.
The
bilateral process is largely facilitated by the activities of a Kazakhstan –
Canada Business Council (KCBC). Last May, the KCBC first inaugural meeting was
successfully held in Astana. Currently, together with “Kazatomprom”, “Cameco
Corporation”, Kazakhstan’s Chamber of International Commerce and the Canada
Eurasia Russia Business Association, we are preparing for the 2nd meeting of
the Kazakhstan – Canada Business Council, that will be organized in June in
Astana, on the margins of EXPO-2017.
In conclusion, I am pleased to note that we are
going to celebrate the 25th Anniversary of Kazakhstan-Canada diplomatic
relations on April 10th, 2017.
--o--
BRIEFLY
NOTED
RUSSIA
The far
reaching consequences of protest demonstrations across Russia are not about the
number of people who took part, but the composition of crowds. For the first
time in recent history the bulk of demonstrators was not middle class, or
members of the intelligentsia, but university and high school students.
Evidently, a new generation has entered political life. This generation was not
affected by classic, Putin-style patriotic nationalism. They are indifferent to
the euphoria about annexation of Crimea and the plight of separatists in
Donbass.
The only
important issue that resonates with them, as the generation that gets all of
its news from the Internet not TV, is the prevailing, institutionalized
corruption in Russia.
Putin's
reaction was swift: he announced a series of general measures that would bring
the younger generations of Russians to the Government side, for example
creating Soviet-style cultural centers for the youth and involve young people
in organized political activities. It could include extending voting rights to
people age 16 and up.
MOLDOVA
President
Dodon of Moldova recently initiated resumption of the long frozen negotiations with
the separatist enclave of Prednestrovie (Transnistria) .
It will
however remain unresolved until the parliamentary elections scheduled for late
spring. Moldova's parliament is known for inaction due to constant split around
the 50-50 bench mark. This has prevented Moldova to move in either direction it
happened to choose: pro-European or pro-Russian. This time however Moldova
socialist party and its Communist allies have a strong chance to form a
government that will agree to the main Moscow's demand: to opt for a federal
model of state structure in order to accommodate the predominately Russian-speaking
enclave of Prednestrovie and pro-Moscow, autonomous Gagauz region. This would
also effectively marginalize supporters of Moldova becoming part of Romania.
KAZAKHSTAN
Diplomatic
sources in Astana confirmed that Kazakhstan will host an important conference
on peaceful resolution of the Afghan conflict. The most interesting aspect of that
conference is that it will be preceded by talks between Afghan government and
Taliban. Considering that Taliban is gaining ground in the country such talks could
be instrumental in defining Kabul's position. Hanif Atmar, Afghanistan's
National Security adviser suggested that the conference should include US, Russia,
China, Pakistan, and five central Asian republics.
TURKMENISTAN
One of the
most secluded and closed countries in the world just finished construction of a 2.3 billion dollar airport which makes it one of the most expensive airports in
the world. The opening ceremony was lush and exuberant. The airport, as was
announced, could handle 17 million passengers a year. There is only one
problem: Turkmenistan gets only 100.000 tourists per year.
--o--
THE AUTHORS
Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His particular area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe. Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, had become a textbook on relations of media and society.
During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.
