Thursday, October 29, 2020

Issue 47

 

THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER

THE GREATEST LAME-DUCK PRESIDENT EVER?

Although Democratic party supporters remain very nervous, it looks as though Joe Biden will become the next President if the polls are right, if he can avoid mistakes raising questions about his mental health and if he can hold on to Pennsylvania and a few other nearby swing states such as Michigan and Wisconsin. For some political observers who have looked at the historical voting patterns in these latter states, the tendencies that we observe today take their origin in the ethno-cultural make-up of the states and to features going back as far as the American Revolution. Simply put, this is the long-standing confrontation between the Appalachia and Yankee traditions.



Looking at it this way, Donald Trump, for all his failings is not the first US president to have been elected by a contribution from the Appalachia nation. The rebellious gun-wielding anti-government tendency is far from a novelty.

Looking at long-term voting patterns should also give some pause to those who raise the issue of foreign intervention in US elections. The fact is that the US electorate cannot be moved so easily by anything, neither the billions of dollars that are spent by each camp or by the real but limited intrusions of foreign actors such as Iran or Russia. You would know that Iran does prefer Biden. As for Russia, it is now far from clear which candidate they would rather have win the day.

As for what really moves the electorate, the jury is still out. Some have seen Biden’s far-reaching statement on fossil fuels as a blunder that would cost him votes in oil-rich Texas and Pennsylvania. On the Republican side, some were furious with White House Chief of Staff Mark McKinnon’s “surrender” statement on COVID-19. The Republican rush to bring Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court so she can decide on election cases may even have a negative impact on the electorate in some states.




Donald Trump has demonstrated his incapacity to formulate public policy beyond a few mostly negative statements. If he loses the election, it may well be for his penchant for holding rallies that feed his oversize narcissistic ego, but amount to preaching to the converted while insulting every non-believer in sight. His statements about the end of the pandemic do not help either. COVID-19 fears, antipathy to Trump as well as his own insistence on voting problems may have been factors in the unprecedented surge of advance voting. As the candidate with a strong base but one that is significantly short of a majority, Trump stands to lose from a large turnout.  

If he loses the election, Trump may well engage in legal contestations in the states with narrow margin victories for his opponent. Opponents genuinely fear he may have more than occasional luck with the courts that he has packed with his supporters. Yet, he could not easily overturn a clear public disavowal. Would he graciously accept the negative verdict of public opinion? Most unlikely. The period between the announcement of the definitive results and the inauguration of the next president in January could be unusually painful, with Trump using every trick in the book to seek retribution as well as protect his personal interests and those of his close family.

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NOT A CLASSICAL LOCAL CONFLICT

History does not always play the major role in local conflicts.

Yet, in the case of the permanent war between Armenia and Azerbaijan for Nagorno-Karabakh since 1988, history could say "mea culpa" about that conflict.

In 1922 when the Soviet Union was formed, Joseph Stalin who at that time was responsible for the nationalities policy of the newly formed Communist Federation, surrounded the Nagorno-Karabakh region, historically populated by Armenians for a thousand years, by Azerbaijan territory. Stalin, hailing from neighbouring Georgia would have known all the nuances of the long-standing ethnic rivalries in the Caucasus. “Divide and Conquer” was a classic approach Bolsheviks took when it came to the ethnic question within the USSR. As a result, only 16% of Nagorno-Karabakh was populated by Azeris. The rest was a large Armenian majority. And let us not forget that only 7 years prior over a million Armenians were massacred by the Turks and their allies (including Azeris).

Fast forwarding the events to 1988, shortly before the USSR fell apart, Azeri population was expelled from Nagorno-Karabakh by the Armenians. On top of that, Armenia managed to occupy five additional agricultural areas as bargaining chips for future negotiations with Azerbaijan. The Armenian goal was also to have a corridor (called Lachin corridor) between Karabakh and Armenian proper. Altogether Azerbaijan lost 20% of its territory by the time the ceasefire was achieved in 1994. Since then public opinion in both countries has prevented any meaningful negotiation.


Today Armenia is facing a well-prepared and well-armed Azerbaijan supported by Turkey while Russia is not particularly enthusiastic in supporting its Armenian ally. As a result, Armenia is currently on the losing end of the conflict. The failure of the Moscow-negotiated ceasefire and then of the Washington-negotiated one would seem to confirm that neither side is genuinely ready to stop fighting. The Azerbaijan objective is to erode the Armenian position to a point where Armenia will be ready to negotiate and may be ready for a new compromise arrangement. Armenia can only try to resist and hope to delay Azerbaijan advance.

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BELARUS REMAINS A GEOPOLITICAL RIDDLE FOR RUSSIA

For Russia, for its tsar-president Vladimir Putin, the crisis in Belarus is of a geopolitical nature. Moscow might not be openly stating its geopolitical calculus, but in its eyes, the Belarus problem resembles the uprisings in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan and represents a similar problem in the long run. So far though the Belarus turmoil is not of anti-Russia or anti-Putin nature.

Whatever the arguments we hear around the world by analysts that protests in Belarus are not about geopolitics and more about popular grievances against President Alexander Lukashenko, the issue will ultimately transform into a serious geopolitical game.

On October 22nd, at the Valdai conference (this time virtually over zoom), Putin spoke directly about Belarus. He insisted that no one from the outside should interfere in Belarus affairs and suggested that some constitutional changes are inevitable. He also compared people's anger in Belarus to popular street protests in “developed Western democracies” (obviously hinting at Portland and Seattle) and said that at least in Belarus no one gets shot in the back. Putin also said that those among law enforcement involved in extreme violence must be held accountable.

Russia, at the same time, is not taking any chances. In fact, two months ago, Putin announced the creation of a special “law enforcement reserve” for use in Belarus should the situation get “out of control.”

The Russians understand that an “Armenia-style” revolution in Belarus could theoretically take place, but it would open the country more to Europe and thereby create geopolitical dilemmas like those created in Ukraine before 2014. Both Armenian PM Pashinyan (the war in Nagorno-Karabakh is not going too well for Armenia) and President Lukashenko suddenly depend on Putin more than ever.


President Lukashenko at ceremony introducing the new Minister of the Interior, Ninsk October 30th
©President of Belarus Website


For the Russian leadership, events in Belarus are a continuation of the “revolutionary tradition"  that has been spreading across the former Soviet space since the early 2000s. Russia would probably replace Lukashenko with a wiser man, but after 25 years of one-man rule such candidates are hard to come by. In Belarus, unlike military games in the Caucasus where Russian military might may eventually be decisive, a more subtle approach is required. One the one hand Russia is not ready to send 'little green men' and on the other it can hardly afford the loss of such a strategic, geopolitical piece as Belarus.


President Lukashenko in Slutsky region, October 23rd
©President of Belarus Website


Unlike with other leaders who lost or were about to lose their jobs, the offer of a comfortable dacha in a Moscow suburb would not be enough to draw Lukashenko away. He is opinionated, messianistic and still has too much energy. Rather than retire him the other approach inspired by Vatican traditions would be to give him a promotion to get rid of him. There is, however, only one position above that of President of Belarus, President of a Belarus-Russia union. Lukashenko would only agree to a position of real power and responsibility. Russia, having had to contend with Lukashenko’s difficult behaviour for years could only give him an honorific position. That leaves only one “peaceful” option, a constitutional reform in Belarus that would take some power away from the president. That will take time and may not be enough for the opposition forces. With the opposition fully intent on continuing protests and strike actions, the end of the year promises to be remarkably interesting.

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UKRAINE UPDATE

Local elections fiasco

For the first time in the history of modern Ukraine, the local elections that were held on October 25th meant something. As a result of administrative reforms intended to achieve decentralization, local authorities will have greater power in running local affairs. Local management issues are a common problem in virtually all post-Soviet countries. For a country the size of Ukraine, decentralization was both needed and overdue.

President Zelenskyy, October 25th, Kyiv
©President of Ukraine Website


President Zelenskyy and his political party, Servant of the People, decided to run their candidates for these local elections to occupy fully the whole political space. The result was a clear disaster with their candidates receiving around 25% of the total vote. This is a major rebuttal for the President and his party in terms of political credibility.  The vote was also an occasion for some opposition parties to consolidate their position. Former President Poroshenko’s party emerged as the stronger nationalist entity in Western regions and the pro-Russia party recovered some of the support it has lost to Zelenskyy in the Southeastern regions. This could also set the stage for a confrontation pattern between the central government in Kyiv and the local authorities. It could complicate even further the implementation of the political and economic reforms that are promoted by Zelenskyy in order to weed out corruption, not that local managers are more corrupt, but that they will reject control from the center.

To complicate matters even further for Zelenskyy, in late October the Constitutional Court invalidated a law that criminalised false income declarations by public officials. The law was considered as an essential instrument to fight corruption. The integrity of the Constitutional Court was called into question, some observing that some of its members were not entitled to take part on the decision and that some were in conflict of interest situations.

At the same time, the Prime Minister expressed the view that Ukraine and the IMF were moving closer in their discussions over the fulfillment by Ukraine of the commitment that would open the door to further IMF financial assistance. This would include anti-corruption measures.

The emergence of opposition locally elected officials as well as the backtracking of judicial institutions illustrate the difficulties confronting Zelenskyy in carrying out reforms even though he is proceeding with the best intentions and started with a strong popular mandate.

Differences of opinion between central and local authorities also seem to play a part in Ukraine’s less than perfect management of COVID-19. Here, there is no second wave but still a first wave that keeps getting bigger. There would also seem to exist some difficulties in having a clear picture of the real situation.

Referendum or glorified opinion poll

President Zelenskyy in Chernivtsi, October 2nd
©Presdient of Ukraine Website


As an aside and almost as a distraction, President Zelenskyy had also added a five-question referendum/opinion poll to the local ballots. For four of the five questions, he received a positive answer. Questions follow with the percentage of Yes answers.

1.            The possibility of introducing life imprisonment for corruption of a particularly large scale, 81%

2.            The need to introduce a free economic zone in Donbas, 45%

3.            The need to downsize the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine from 450 to 300 deputies, 95%

4.            The possibility of legalizing medical cannabis in Ukraine to alleviate pain of critically ill patients, 70%

5.            The need to raise the issue of using the security guarantees set out in the Budapest Memorandum at the international level to restore its state sovereignty and territorial integrity, 78%

The idea of asking these questions was met with less than unanimous support. It may have been intended to bring in more young voters to participate. It probably turned out as a sign of indecisiveness and a feeble and unnecessary attempt to involve people.

Who is to blame?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says those who allowed Russia to illegally annex Crimea in early 2014 must be held responsible. In an annual address to parliament on October 20, Zelenskyy did not name anyone in particular, but appeared to be taking clear aim at officials who assumed power after mass anti-government protests toppled Russia-friendly President Viktor Yanukovych in late February 2014.

Presdeient Zelenskyy addressing the Rada, October 20th
©President of Ukraine Website


Zelenskyy also said that his government supports the idea of an amnesty for "the millions of our compatriots, who have no blood on their hands and remain hostage" in Crimea and the districts of Donbas that remain under Russia-backed separatists' control.

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 FROM THREE NO'S TO THREE YESES

Fifty-three years ago, in September of 1967 in Khartoum (Sudan), shortly after Israel needed only 6 days to defeat armies of Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon and troops from Saudi Arabia and Yemen in one of the most memorable wars of the 20th century, the Arab League had pronounced the so-called  "Three No's": "no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it..."

The first Arab country to break the declaration was Egypt in 1979 as it established diplomatic relations with Israel for the return of Sinai peninsula, Jordan followed in 1994 and in 2020 three more Arab states had changed no’s to yes: the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and finally Sudan.

As the world battles Covid-19 and the massive economic recession, the significance of the peace deals has hardly been noticed. Beyond the reluctance to give credit to Donald Trump and his administration, there may be an understanding that some of the deals confirmed a de facto situation and do not resolve the central conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.

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RUSSIA: WHERE SHOULD THE MONEY GO?

Russia's Defense Ministry says it has rejected austerity measures proposed by the Finance Ministry, such as reducing the number of military personnel.

In a proposal submitted to Russia's Security Council earlier this month, the Finance Ministry suggested cutting the country's military personnel by 10 percent, which would amount to some 100,000 members of the armed forces, the Izvestia newspaper reported on October 20th.

The ministry proposed that some of those officers would be given civilian posts instead. It also suggested raising the number of years of service required to receive a military pension.

However, the Defense Ministry argued that similar moves in the past showed their "inefficiency" and led to "numerous problematic issues affecting the combat capacity of the Armed Forces."

In a statement carried by Krasnaya Zvezda, its official newspaper, the ministry said it had sent its position to the Security Council "on the unacceptability of these proposals and the absence of support for them from the leadership of the military department."

The Defense Ministry insisted that the Finance Ministry's proposal to slash the number of military posts would have "'zero' economic effect."

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said no decision had been made on the matter.

The Russian Finance Ministry’s proposals come amid a worldwide recession brought on by the coronavirus pandemic.

According to the International Monetary Fund's latest economic outlook released last week, the Russian economy is expected to plunge 4.6 percent this year before rebounding 3.9 percent in 2021.

Russia last year increased its annual military expenditures by 4.5 percent to $65.1 billion, making it the world's fourth-largest military spender, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

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RUSSIA’S FAR-OUT THINKERS

Russian Archpriest Dmitry Smirnov, known for his controversial public statements that led to public outcry and criticism, has died at the age of 69. Vasily Rulinsky, the press secretary of the Russian Orthodox Church, announced the death on October 21st. He did not mention the cause but most likely it was Covid-19. The priest contracted the virus several months ago.



Smirnov was known for his controversial positions, including his call to bless nuclear weapons, which he described as the "salvation of the Russian people and its culture."

He also called on believers to give all their earnings to the Russian Orthodox church and advised single Russian women to "look for husbands in Africa."

He called women living together with their partners «unpaid prostitutes."

Just before Smirnov was hospitalized with COVID-19 he called the pandemic "an extremely useful phenomenon," because, he said, people started "caring more about their loved ones and better understand Christian values."

In August, following public criticism of his statements, Smirnov was removed from the position of Chairman of the Russian Orthodox Patriarch’s Commission on the Family, becoming its Honorary Chairman instead.

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KAZAKHSTAN

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has set the date of elections for the lower house of parliament, or Majlis, for January 10th, 2021. The decree, signed on October 21, paves the way for the energy-rich Central Asian country’s first parliamentary elections since Tokayev in 2019 succeeded Nursultan Nazarbayev, who resigned that year after nearly three decades in power.

Nazarbayev still maintains key positions of power, including head of the country’s Security Council and ruling Nur Otan party.

International election observers say that past elections in Kazakhstan have failed to meet agreed standards, citing electoral fraud, repression of opposition candidates, and restrictions on the freedom of the press.

The 107-seat Majlis is currently dominated by Nazarbayev’s Nur Otan party, which has 84 deputies. The pro-government Communist People’s Party of Kazakhstan and the liberal Ak Zhol party each have seven seats. The remaining nine seats are appointed by the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan, an advisory body controlled by Nazarbayev.

The last parliamentary elections were held in March 2016.

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KYRGYZSTAN

Kyrgyzstan's Central Election Commission has set December 20th as the date for new parliamentary elections after an October 4th vote was annulled following public protests that ousted the government and the parliament speaker and led to the resignation of President Sooronbai Jeenbekov.

After Jeenbekov's resignation in early October, lawmakers elected Sadyr Japarov, a former nationalist lawmaker and convicted kidnapper, who was released from prison by the protesters on October 6th, as the new prime minister and handed presidential powers to him on October 16th.

According to the law, early elections must be held no later than three months after the president’s resignation. Japarov cannot take part in the election as the current legislation does not allow acting presidents to seek office.

--o--

BELARUS, ON THE GROUND

Hundreds of people have been detained by police in Belarus since post-election protests swept the country. The new target of the authorities: lawyers. Attorneys who have been hired or have volunteered to defend detainees and opposition leaders struggle not only to handle huge caseloads, but also the formidable hurdles they say authorities are placing in their way.

Protesters are facing increasingly phantasmagorical and utterly fabricated charges, lawyers say, as Aleksandr Lukashenka clings to power amid growing public opposition, international isolation, and sanctions imposed following the disputed August 9th presidential election that official results say he won in a landslide.

The lawyers find themselves circumventing obstacles, such as scrambling to get to court after being given only a moment's notice that their client's case is being heard, and working under the threat that they, too, may run into trouble with the authorities.

Many lawyers say they face disbarment, detention, or even arrest for their work with the opposition.

--o--

PERSON OF THE MONTH: ABRAHAM KAREM

In the absence of a personality that would stand up for his or her positive contribution, the person of the month title goes to a person who has through his inventions transformed modern warfare. It is also an occasion to observe on the growing impersonal nature of military killing as well as to the relative indifference to extra-judicial executions.

From the barefooted Houthis rebels in Yemen, rugged militants in Gaza, various militias in Syria to the most advanced militaries in the world-all of them rely on the use drones or (UAV's unmanned aerial vehicles). The drones have transformed the battlefield (and like a lot of military-based technologies found their use in many civilian projects) and have made spying and killing even more effective.

The latest examples of the effectiveness of drone technology can be seen in the American assassination of the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard chief Soleimani by means of the 'Reaper' drone and series of precision hits by the Azeri military against Armenian targets with the help of Israeli and Turkish made drones.

The man who pioneered this technology is Abraham Karem. He was born in Baghdad, Iraq in 1937. As a teenager, being from a Jewish family, he moved to Israel where he began to develop his interest in drone technology. Along the way he graduated from the renowned Technion University in Haifa and constructed his first drone during the 1973 October war for the Israeli army. 


Later on he moved to the United States where he founded a company called Leading Systems which operated from his garage. He manufactured two early drones, 'Albatross' and 'Amber'. A more sophisticated 'Amber' drone, as the US Government contractor 'General Atomics' acquired Karem's company, became a platform for arguably one of the best drones in the world - American made 'Predator'.

 

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THE AUTHORS


Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe.  Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, has become a textbook on relations of media and society.

During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.

Gilles Breton also currently serves as Chairman of the National Board of the Canada-Eurasia-Russia Business Association. The views expressed in this newsletter exclusively reflect the opinion of the authors.

 







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