Issue 30

THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER

UKRAINE: NEW PRESIDENT, OLD CHALLENGES

Volodimir Zelensky won an overwhelming victory in the April 21^st second round of the Presidential election in Ukraine, receiving 73% of the vote. Outgoing President Petro Poroshenko only received 24%. It is far easier to assert a meaning to Poroshenko’s defeat than to Zelensky’s victory. Poroshenko had lost credibility especially on the central issue of the fight against corruption. He only managed to do well in Western Ukraine where his nationalist policies and pronouncements found greater resonance. To a certain extent, Poroshenko’s defeat is also a loss for the Ukrainian political class that has been in control of Ukrainian political life since the ousting of former President Yanukovich. As for Zelensky, there is a perception that, although he has offered general support for the European integration ideas that have been promoted by his predecessor for the past five years, he does not espouse them with the same fervour and that as a Russian-speaker he may take a different view of the future relationship with Russia. It is then not surprising that he avoided clearly defining his future policies during the electoral campaign in order not to expose himself to the direct criticism of the ruling political class, something that could have eroded his popular support.

Zelensky was mainly elected as the non-traditional politician who will address the problem of corruption, but also, to a certain extent, as a leader who would take a different approach than his predecessor when it comes to relations with Russia. He has used the vague enough formula that Ukraine will neither be “the corrupt partner of the West nor the little sister of Russia”. On the key issue of relations with Russia, his margin of manoeuvre will indeed be limited.

More specifically, on the issue of relations with Vladimir Putin, Zelensky’s election night message to the people of the other countries of the former Soviet Union that “everything is possible” was an interesting attempt at positioning himself as one who would be opposed to Putin should he happen to live in Russia and as conveying the message that he is no friend of the Russian President.

As for how he proposes to address the problem of the rebel regions of Eastern Ukraine, there is also a perception that he may be less dogmatic than his predecessor and slightly more accommodating. While there is not much appetite in Ukraine altogether for any concession to the rebel regions, there is also a sense that Zelensky has the mandate put an end to the fighting.

Zelensky has also made clear that he wants to move quickly on his anti-corruption agenda. On this issue as well as for the rest of his agenda, the issue of dissolving the Rada and having early parliamentary elections becomes crucial. Without his own parliamentary faction, his capacity to initiate significant change on any issue will be rather limited.

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PERSON OF THE MONTH: VOLODYMIR ZELENSKY

Zelensky was born in 1978 to Jewish parents in Krivyi Rih, a predominantly Russian-speaking industrial city in southern Ukraine. He left to pursue a career in show business. His first successes were in the Ukrainian version of KVN. KVN, literally the "Club of the Funny and Inventive People", is a very popular humour show that started during Soviet times and remains popular throughout the region. Their participation in KVN  led Zelensky and two friends from his hometown to create the film studio Kvartal 95 in the Ukrainian capital. 

Kvartal 95 created the television series Servant of the People, in which Zelensky played the role of President of Ukraine. The series aired from 2015 to 2019. A political party of the same name was created in March 2018 by employees of Kvartal 95. The studio became enormously successful throughout the post-Soviet world, and several of Zelensky’s Kvartal 95 colleagues also played key roles in his campaign team.

The comedian become Ukraine’s first Jewish president, making his country the only one outside of Israel to have both a Jewish president and prime minister. Volodymyr Groysman took the latter post in April 2016.

Inviting comparisons with Italy's Five-Star movement, his campaign has relied heavily on social media and comedy gigs of jokes, sketches and song-and-dance routines that poked fun at his political rivals. 

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RUSSIA-UKRAINE

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree simplifying the procedure for people living in parts of eastern Ukraine held by Russia-backed separatists to obtain Russian citizenship.

The decree, which was expectedly criticized by Ukraine and most of its western supporters, was published on the Kremlin website on April 24th.

It comes three days after Ukraine elected a new president, opening the door to potential changes in a relationship severely damaged for the past five years by Russia's seizure of Crimea and support for the forces who hold parts of Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions. 

Russian officials presented the action as a humanitarian gesture in favour of the residents of the regions in question. There may be some of that, but the timing is also a way for the Russian side, along with other trade limitation measures, to begin the possible upcoming discussions with President Zelensky from a position of force.

On the other hand, giving Zelensky the occasion to react negatively to a Russian action is a way for him to assert his own credentials back home.

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US ELECTIONS 2020: DOES TRUMP STAND A CHANCE?

After the Mueller report, as presented by Attorney General Barr, cleared Trump of “collusion with Russia” charges he regained self-confidence and confirmed his intentions to run in 2020. He will be a formidable candidate for any democratic nominee. His electorate base though smaller than it was in 2016 will most likely overlook any of his extravagant behavior, his endless war against media, non-stop staff reshuffles and other countless examples of typical Trump-like shenanigans with which we have become all so familiar. There is a popular view that Trump managed to spoil relations with allies in Europe as well as brought relations with Russia to a dangerous low. On the economic side, however, the Obama legacy along with his own policy have so far created substantial economic growth. The red states that voted for Trump in 2016 are enjoying the best economic growth, increase in wages and slightly lower unemployment in years. His firm stand on Chinese efforts to increase its presence in the US economy through artificially low import tariffs, theft of intellectual properties and other illegitimate and semi-legitimate ways is firmly supported by the political establishment and by the business community.

It is too early to tell, but Trump's leading opponent, who just now entered the race and right away became a Democratic front-runner, is Joe Biden, former senator and former vice-president. Biden counts on the assumption that Democratic voters will pick him as the middle of the road candidate and will not gamble on the uncertainties represented by more radical progressive candidates. So far the polls prove him right as Biden is ahead even of Bernie Sanders by several percentage points. 

As one British observer noticed, at this point only Joe Biden will be able to prevent the transformation of the Democratic party into something akin to the British Labour party. 

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COMRADE KIM TAKES THE TRAIN TO RUSSIA

The same armored train that took his grandfather Kim il sung on the longest train ride in 1974 across the Soviet Union and most eastern European countries now brought Kim Jong un to a summit with Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok.

It was Kim’s first trip to Russia.

Squeezed between the US and China as far as the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula is concerned, Kim looks for some degree of support from the former patron and Big Brother in Moscow. While trade between North Korea and Russia remains minuscule (30 million USD), thousands of North Korean workers labour as tree loggers in Siberia and send millions of dollars back home to support their families and the state itself. The UNSC resolution requires Russia to terminate the contract with Korean workers by 2021 as part of international sanctions' package. Both Kim and Putin discussed that issue and according to Russian media will try to find a solution. Putin also confirmed that he had received a message from Kim for Donald Trump.

Among some interesting projects discussed in Vladivostok was the idea to build a railroad from Russia to South Korea via the North. It could substantially cut the time of transporting goods from Europe to South Korea.  

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RUSSIA-SYRIA

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad met with several senior Russian officials for talks in Damascus on April 20. to finalize lease of Syria’s Tartus port to Russia.

Russia's Foreign Ministry said Assad met over two days with Moscow's special envoy to Syria, Aleksandr Lavrentiev; Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin; Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov; and several Defense Ministry officials.

Russian state-run TASS news agency quoted Borisov as saying that a contract on renting the Tartus port by Russia was expected to be signed soon. The lease is for 49 years.

In December 2017, Russia’s Federation Council ratified an agreement between Moscow and Assad’s government on Russian forces' access to the naval base in Tartus.

It allows for the Russian Navy to expand its technical support and logistics base. It also enables visits of Russian ships in Syria’s territorial waters, internal waters, and ports.

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KAZAKHSTAN

 

Kazakhstan's ruling Nur Otan party has nominated interim President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev for the presidency, virtually assuring his victory in a snap election scheduled for June 9.

The announcement was made at party congress on April 23, weeks after Nursultan Nazarbaev abruptly resigned as president after 30 years in power in the tightly controlled Central Asian country.

"I propose Toqaev's candidacy for consideration," said Nazarbaev, who remains chairman of Nur Otan as well as the country's Security Council, and holds formal "leader of the nation" status. "I ask everyone to support his candidacy."

The party voted unanimously in favor of his proposal. Nur Otan had said in a statement on its website that a special congress would choose the candidate after the agenda for the meeting of the highest governing body of the party was approved on April 22 by its Political Council.

The 78-year-old Nazarbaev is chairman for life of Kazakhstan's Security Council and has been granted the title of "elbasy," or leader of the nation, which gives him and his family lifelong immunity from any civic or criminal prosecution.

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BELARUS

Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has been invited to a dinner hosted by European Council President Donald Tusk to celebrate the 10th anniversary of the Eastern Partnership in Brussels on May 13.

Several EU sources speaking under the condition of anonymity have confirmed that Lukashenka last week was invited alongside the leaders of the EU's other five eastern partners -- Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.

That summit was the first high-level event organized by the European Union in which Lukashenka was allowed to attend after having been excluded from the previous four summits.

Belarus, which has been under Lukashenka's rule for 25 years and has been called the "last dictatorship of Europe," was sanctioned by Brussels in the wake of the crackdown that followed the presidential election in December 2010.

But in February 2016, in response to the release of all political prisoners in August 2015, the EU lifted most sanctions against the country. 

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KYRGYZSTAN-TAJIKISTAN

A new incident near a disputed segment of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border has increased tension in the volatile area.

Kyrgyzstan’s State Border Service said on April 23 that a day earlier, a Tajik man in the village of Tojikon forcibly took an eight-year-old Kyrgyz boy from the adjacent Kyrgyz village of Ak-Sai into Tajik territory.

According to Kyrgyz officials, the boy was returned to Kyrgyz authorities in 30 minutes and at least 50 local Kyrgyz men and women demonstrated in Ak-Sai to voice anger over the incident.

Many border areas in Central Asian former Soviet republics have been disputed since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

The situation is particularly complicated near the numerous exclaves in the volatile Ferghana Valley, where the borders of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan meet.

The chief of Tojikon, Gafurjon Juraev, told the media that the incident was the result of a new standoff between ethnic Kyrgyz and ethnic Tajiks living close to the disputed part of the border.

According to Juraev, residents of the Kyrgyz village blocked a road crossing the area and vandalized several Tajik vehicles, while Tajik men broke a window of a car with a Kyrgyz license plate.

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MONGOLIA

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang met with Mongolian President Khaltmaa Battulga Wednesday ahead of the Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation to be held from April 25 to 27 in Beijing.

China is enhancing its strategic partnership and taking the relations between the two countries to a new level, Li said.

Mongolia, as many other smaller countries in need of the Chinese investments, reasserted its support for one-China principle and made assurances to China that Taiwan and Tibet are inseparable parts of China.

Mongolia, as was declared during the meeting, is willing to strengthen the alignment of the Development Road program with the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), expand cooperation in trade, energy and infrastructure, and advance the development of the Mongolia-China-Russia economic corridor.

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THE AUTHORS

Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His particular area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe.  Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, had become a textbook on relations of media and society.

During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.

Gilles Breton also currently serves as Chairman of the National Board of the Canada-Eurasia-Russia Business Association. The views expressed in this newsletter exclusively reflect the opinion of the authors.