THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER
TRUMP FALLING FURTHER BEHIND IN RECENT POLLS
Over the
past two months, Donald Trump’s approval ratings have nosedived, first because
of his heavily-criticized inadequate response to the coronavirus pandemic and,
more recently, his reaction to the antiracism protests following, among other similar
events, the killing of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer.
Trump's
attempt to paint himself as a law and order candidate so far has very little positive
reflection in the polls. It would almost seem as though the law and order label
is turning off some of the less committed Trump supporters.
The latest
New-York Times poll and (for balance) FOX news poll show the president behind
Joe Biden in all 6 decisive battleground states (Michigan, North Carolina,
Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona). In some states Biden's lead is
in double digits.
Historically,
only the elder George Bush senior had similar numbers as an incumbent. He went
down big time to a young man by the name of Bill Clinton.
If the same
numbers hold, though four months is a long time in politics, Biden will get
around 333 electoral college votes against Trump's 202.
 |
| From Joe Biden's Facebook page |
What should
be troubling for Donald Trump and his camp is that he is trailing Joe Biden who
hardly ever ventures out of his home and who has a hard time formulating simple
concepts or even reading off the teleprompter. So far Biden gave interviews
only to a selected group of partisan reporters and was served with soft ball
questions. Even in this comfort zone Biden manages to mangle almost every
interview and even in a limited capacity shows obvious signs of cognitive
malfunctions. He is not the Joe Biden we knew even 3-4 years ago. This subject
is almost a taboo for such news outlets as MSNBC, CNN, New York Times,
Washington Post and other from anti-Trump media camp.
This cannot
last and eventually American people will see Biden more thoroughly and some
tough questions will be asked of him. There will be debates and interviews.
Biden will have to finally face a marginally younger, but more dynamic, tough
talking, aggressive and brilliant campaigner.
There is
another aspect concerning accuracy of polls which so far has not been
highlighted. We all live in a stringent, politically correct culture, and
cancel culture is widespread. All kinds of people are fired, dismissed and
forced to utter confessions and apologies for not expressing "proper and
progressive views". Gone are the times when one can easily say what one
thinks. Now most people say what is required. It would not be far fetched to
state that a number of people, possibly a larger number than one imagines,
would not reveal their true political beliefs and alliances. Many in America
are weary of radical elements in the Democratic party who could easily
manipulate Grandpa Joe and run circles around him while he is taking an
afternoon nap.
The pandemic
is not receding, quite the contrary. The economy is in deep trouble. It will
probably pick up a bit before November, but not in a significant way.
Two things
can help Trump to win a second term. Number one is Joe Biden will become incapacitated
for reasons of health.
The second one
is more nuanced.
If the
economy begins to show signs of recovery and if Trump is able to verbalize in a
semi coherent way that the election of Joe Biden and his progressive entourage will
mean open borders, further destruction of American history and heritage,
immunity for left-wing domestic terrorists, emasculation of police, soft
approach to China, appeasement of radical Islamic regimes (mainly Iran) and
most likely the most anti-Israeli administration in decades...and if people
will buy this message, he may have a chance.
 |
| From Donald Trump's Facebook page |
There is of
course the possibility that Trump could undo all of that if there is no
parental control over his Twitter account.
--o--
HOPING TO WIN, HOPING TO FAIL
Canada was
hoping to secure a seat as non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for
2021 and 2022. It failed, losing to Norway and Ireland in the first round of
voting. The post-mortem examination offered a multitude of explanations,
including that Canada started its campaign too late. Some even argued that
China, being upset with the detention of Meng Wanzhou, a senior Huawei
executive, would have used its influence to denigrate Canada. The fact is that
China did not have to do anything. To countries that look at this from a greater distance, Canada having agreed to detain a Chinese for
what is essentially a violation of US law would send the signal that when it
matters Canada will follow the US lead. Being perceived as different from the US and having your own identity could have have beeb helpful. In what
turned out to be a tight race, it would only have taken a few states that did
not want any greater support for the US at the Security Council to cast their
votes for highly-respected and generous Norway or for the EU through Ireland
rather than for Canada that would be perceived as too much under the influence
of its neighbour.
The Meng Wanzhou
detention in Canada and the ensuing detention of two Canadians, Spavor and Kovrig, in China have
led to considerable political and legal debate.
 |
| ©Free Michael Spavor Blog |
Under
Canadian legislation, the Minister of Justice can at any point put an end to an
extradition process. This ministerial discretion serves to avoid an extradition
process becoming an automatic process that could lead to undesirable
consequences such as for instance the extradition to a country where the
detainee could be subject to torture or the death penalty.
A group of
senior legal and political luminaries just reminded the Minister of Justice of
his legal authority to end the extradition process, arguing that he should use
that authority to secure the release of the two Canadians held in China, to put
behind the incident and to afford the Canadian government the occasion to
re-define its overall policy vis-à-vis China.
Another
group of senior individuals quickly responded and argued the exact opposite on
the basis of rule of law and our treaty obligations to the US, denouncing the
ideas of a prisoner exchange and of yielding to hostake-takers.
In
hindsight, it would have been much preferable for the Minister of Justice to
end the extradition at the very outset. Although extra-territoriality no longer
seems a very popular argument, the Minister of Justice could have used it a
face-saving device to argue that Meng Wanzhou was arrested for violating US
sanctions, not international sanctions, and that pursuing extradition would be
according US law an extra-territorial reach which we reject as a matter of
principle. Right or not, we would have avoided being caught in the middle. The
Canadian government, however, did not want to displease the US. Such an
approach would have required a high level of moral authority and the
willingness to weather the consequences of such a decision.
 |
| Michael Kovrig ©International Crisis Group |
Now that
the judicial process has gone through several stages, it is far more difficult
for the Minister of Justice to use his legal authority to stop the extradition
process as it would reinforce the impression of political interference. The
Minister is essentially caught in having the Canadian courts go through the
full lengthy process and reserving for himself the right to review the final
extradition decision. The two Canadians detained in China would certainly know
that.
The group
that asked for the Minister of Justice to end the extradition process probably
find themselves on a better legal basis. The argument that using a legal
provision to stop a judicial process is against the rule of law is weak, to say
the least.
The group
that asked for the Minister of Justice not to end the extradition process
probably find themselves on more solid political ground. As noted above, this
is not a simple matter of acceding to treaty obligations, it is, politically, a
matter of helping a long-time ally versus a powerful adversary. It is not
Canada cannot expect a reward from any US management, but that it can avoid
more unpleasantness.
Ultimately
the crux of the matter is the age-old problem of how to deal with a
hostage-taker, with the added dimension that the hostage-taker is a sovereign
government and a major trade partner.
It is
morally right to argue against negotiating with hostake-takers. It is most
unfair to condemn two innocent individuals to years of harsh detention on
account of national interest. The humanitarian argument in favour of paying a
ransom would be bolstered if you could demonstrate not that you will never do
it again, but that you will go after the hostake-taker in such a way as to
avoid ever becoming so vulnerable, which is essentially what is argued in other
words by those who want an end to the extradition process when they seek a
re-definition of Canada’s strategic approach to China, after the "exchange of
prisoners".
The
objective of re-defining relations with China is, however, much broader: it ultimately
is to protect against arbitrary actions by China as well as to ensure that
China follows agreed rules. Hong Kong’s problems obviously come to mind. This
is not something that will be achieved by a few minor adjustments. Collective
long-term commitment and actions by the leaders of the international community will
be necessary to reset the terms of relations with China. Is there even appetite
for that?
Finally, in
the case of the two Canadian detainees, diplomatic efforts are a comfort, not
much else. The Minister of Justice and the Prime Minister might also secretly
harbour the wish that there could be a political window of opportunity, such as
a presidential transition in the US or the failure of the extradition process in
Court. Either are possible.
--o--
KOSOVAR PRESIDENT INDICTED ON WAR-CRIMES CHARGES
The Kosovo
Specialist Prosecutor’s Office (SPO) has indicted Kosovar President Hashim
Thaci, former parliamentary chairman Kadri Veseli, and “others” for war crimes
and crimes against humanity allegedly committed during or after the 1998-1999
Kosovo conflict.
Aside from
a few Croatian war criminals, most indictments by the International Criminal
Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia were levelled against Serbs. Critics of such
practices were always insisting that such inequity was due to the Western
support of Croatia and, later, of Kosovo independence.
Serbia and
its ally Russia were always skeptical of the one-sided motives of the Western
powers in seeking only Serbian perpetrators of crimes against humanity.
The current
attempt to restore justice for Serbian (and Roma) victims of the conflict
clearly justifies, in retrospect, the above-mentioned concerns of Belgrade and
Moscow.
The SPO
said in a statement on June 24th that the suspects “are criminally
responsible for nearly 100 murders,” as well as the “enforced disappearance of
persons, persecution, and torture.”
The alleged
crimes involved “hundreds of known victims of Kosovo Albanian, Serb, Roma, and
other ethnicities and include political opponents. "
Thaci and
Veseli were commanders of the Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK), an ethnic Albanian
guerrilla group that fought against Belgrade's security forces in the 1998-99
war. The former Serbian province declared independence in 2008, a move Serbia,
Russia, and a handful of European Union member states refuse to recognize.
Veseli, who
currently leads the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) and continues to serve as
a lawmaker, denied "any involvement in any crime" and said he is
"proud to have taken part in the liberation war of the Kosovo
people."
Kosovo was
part of Serbia until an armed uprising by the ethnic Albanian majority
population in 1998-99 triggered a Serbian crackdown. The conflict ended
following a 78-day NATO bombing campaign to force Serbian troops out of Kosovo.
The war left more than 10,000 dead and over 1,600 still missing.
--o--
UNLOVED UKRAINE
In his recently
published book former US National Security Adviser John Bolton reveals that
Donald Trump virtually could not use the word Ukraine without qualifying it
with some profanity. This confirms the
fact Ukraine is of no interest to Donald Trump as it cannot offer him anything
that could contribute to his re-election, even though he tried.
 |
| President Zelenskyy on call with Canada's Globe and Mail, June 22nd ©President of Ukraine Website |
The lack of
interest at the top of the US administration nevertheless does not prevent
Ukraine from getting the necessary support from the international community. In
early June the IMF confirmed it was offering Ukraine a USD 5 billion standby
18-month financing program. This is good
news for Ukraine’s short-term solvability. Ukraine currently has relatively
good financial reserves and can now borrow more from institutional lenders that
traditionally will follow the IMF lead. The IMF support took longer than
expected to arrive and is now for only 18 months rather than 3 years. The
problem is not that the Ukraine did not meet IMF requirements on privatisation
of land and banking integrity. It did adopt the required relevant legislation
on both counts. The explanation is that the pandemic conditions have created an
uncertainty which calls for a shorter emergency measure rather than a
longer-term arrangement.
The
criticism that accompanied the IMF loan is more troublesome. Concern is
expressed over Ukraine’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic and over its
overall economic policies.
Ukraine’s
management of the COVID-19 is difficult to gauge. The President is saying and
doing the right things, but may have yielded too early to regional pressure to
open up the economy. The relatively low level of testing is also a cause for considerable
uncertainty.
As for the economy, despite the fresh IMF
money, it is clear that there is general lack of confidence and optimism that
the Zelenskyy administration can deliver the required additional reforms that
would underpin greater economic growth.
Rumours
continue to circulate that President Zelenskyy would want to appoint former
Georgian President Saakashvili as his Prime Minister. Saakashvili would be seen
as one of the few people who can actually carry the required reforms in
Ukraine. Not everybody agrees. Zelenskyy may have to get a new Parliament to
get Saakashvili appointed. New parliamentary elections are a high price to pay
and could be risky. The Saakashvili personality apart, the greater problem behind
this is the perception that Ukraine’s reform and economic problems can be
resolved by the intervention of some messiah. This does not instill a lot of
confidence.
--o--
RUSSIA
President
Vladimir Putin has said that he would consider standing for election again if
Russian voters approve a controversial constitutional amendment in a vote
scheduled for July 1st.
Putin’s
comments, broadcast on state-run TV on June 21st, were the strongest
indications to date of his intentions, and come just 10 days before the July 1st
vote.
"I
have not made any decisions yet," he said in comments excerpted by Russian
news agencies. "I am not ruling out the possibility of running for office
if the option appears in the constitution. We will see."
 |
| President Putin, Address to the nation, June 30th ©President of Russia Website |
There was
another interesting aspect as Putin suggested that finding a successor would
potentially be a distraction if he chose not to run again. That is an
indication that the Kremlin fears a succession struggle among rival factions in
case Putin is to step down from his post, or that in the Kremlin’s eyes there
is no political figure capable of consolidating power.
"If
this does not happen [staying in power], then in about two years, and I know
this from personal experience, the normal rhythm of work of many parts of
government will be replaced by a search for possible successors," he was
quoted by RIA-Novosti.
The Kremlin
had hoped to hold the vote on constitutional amendments in April, but the
sweeping restrictions put in place to curb the spread of the coronavirus forced
its postponement until July 1st. All indications are that there will be strong
support for the constitutional amendments.
--o--
PERSON OF THE MONTH: URSULA VON DER LEYEN
When the EU
is confronted with a crisis, you can count on some commentators to predict that
it is doomed. At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, lack of solidarity
among EU members and states turning to themselves were highlighted as a sign that
the end was near. If the threat was not an exaggeration, Ursula von der Leyen
could be seen as the latest saviour of the EU.
In her 7
months as president of the European Commission von der Leyen has done very
well, probably better than most expected. In connection with the pandemic, she
offered a heartfelt apology to Italy for the lack of response from other EU
members at the beginning of the crisis. She was also a driving force behind the
500 billion Euros relief package to member countries. She may not have done so
much about the Brexit issue, but enough to keep the political dialogue open
with Boris Johnson.
Born in
Belgium in a family with German and British American roots, she obtained her
medical diploma in Germany where she also completed advanced medical studies.
She studied for a time in London and also later on lived in the US with her
husband.
Her
political career began in Saxony when she was a minister of social affairs and
labour. Later she became labour minister in the Angela Merkel government and
later first woman defence minister in German history. According to NATO
military experts she was a decent defence minister introducing tough measures
to curb hazing in the armed forces and was credited with overall modernization
of German Army at that time.
The
political alignment was not there for her to replace Angela Merkel as
Chancellor. She may well replace her as a European leader.
--o--
GERMANY
Amid a
wide-spread vandalism and toppling of historical statues in the West, a
life-sized statue of Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin was unveiled on June
20th in Gelsenkirchen, a former mining town in western Germany, by the radical
left-wing Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany (MLPD).
The
installation of Germany's first large public statue of Lenin outside the former
communist East Germany was fiercely opposed by many Germans.
Gelsenkirchen's
city council took the Marxists to court in an attempt to stop the action,
calling Lenin a "representative of violence, suppression, terror, and
immense human suffering."
But the
council's case that the statue would "disturb the view" of a nearby
historic bank was thrown out and the Marxists were given the green light to
erect the monument.
The
1.3-ton, cast-iron statue was made in the former Czechoslovakia in 1957 and
bought by the MLPD in an online auction for roughly $18,000.
The Marxist
party is now planning to erect a statue of Karl Marx to stand next to the
controversial Lenin, but gave no timeline for the project.
KAZAKHSTAN
Kazakh
President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who continues to wield considerable influence in
the Central Asian country after his sudden resignation last year, has tested
positive for the coronavirus.
Recently,
Health Minister Elzhan Birtanov, the chairman of the parliament's lower
chamber, Nurlan Nyghmatulin, presidential spokesman Berik Uali, and several
other officials have also tested positive for the coronavirus.
As of June
18, the total number of registered coronavirus cases in Kazakhstan was reported
as close to 22,000, including 188 deaths. That is the highest number among the
five Central Asian countries.
KYRGYZSTAN
Kyrgyz
lawmakers have approved a bill ratifying a Kyrgyz-Russian protocol amending an
agreement on the usage of Russia's military base in the Central Asian nation.
According
to the bill approved in its third and final reading on June 12, Russia's annual
fee for renting land for its combined military base in Kyrgyzstan will be
increased. After the amount of rented territory is amended, the current annual
rental fee of $4,502,495 will be increased by $291,600, according to the bill.
Russia's
air base at Kant was opened in 2003 under the auspices of the Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which includes Russia, Kyrgyzstan,
Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan.
A U.S. air
base outside the capital, Bishkek, began hosting U.S. troops in 2001 as part of
the military campaign in nearby Afghanistan, but Kyrgyzstan shut it in 2014
amid pressure from Moscow.
In 2017,
the Kant air base and three other Russian military facilities in Kyrgyzstan
were consolidated into a single combined base.
TURKMENISTAN
Turkmenistan
is facing severe food shortages and has further tightened the rationing of
basic foodstuffs at subsidized prices, introducing special registration books
to track purchases at state stores. Each household will receive a school
notebook with a certificate inside from a neighborhood committee stating the
number of people in the family and its address.
Each
purchase conducted by a household in state-owned stores will be registered in
the book, according to the independent Turkmen.news website.
Those who
do not have a book will not be allowed to purchase some of the subsidized
staples available in government stores, including flour, rice, cooking oil,
sugar, and potatoes.
Tightly
controlled Turkmenistan has been facing food price hikes and a food shortage in
recent years. The main reason behind this is ostensibly the decrease in revenue
from gas exports.
UZBEKISTAN
The U.S.
State Department has announced that religious freedom in Uzbekistan continues
to improve, while Iran and China remain among the worst offending countries in
the world.
"In
many places of the world, individuals have become more familiar with religious
oppression than religious freedom," Sam Brownback, the ambassador at large
for international religious freedom, said on June 10th after the
release of an annual report on religious freedom.
Uzbekistan
was removed from the "worst of the worst" list of offenders of
religious freedom last year and continues to take positive steps despite
continued abuses.
“We
documented no police raids of unregistered religious-group meetings during
2019, compared with 114 such raids in 2018, and 240 the year before that. These
are great strides, real progress,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told a news
conference in Washington.
However,
Tashkent remains on a special watch list, meaning there are still
"severe" violations of religious freedom in the Central Asian
country.
Pompeo said
that while there was improvement in some countries, there remained “great
darkness over parts of the world where people of faith are persecuted or denied
the right to worship.”
BELARUS
Belarusian
President Aleksandr Lukashenka declared that his security forces thwarted an
attempt to foment revolution in his country, a day after his government ordered
the arrest of a popular, would-be presidential candidate, prompting thousands
to take to the streets to protest what they see as increased harassment of
opposition leaders.
Speaking at
a government meeting on June 19th, Lukashenko said that forces “in the East and
West” were trying to destabilize Belarus but that their “masks have been torn
off” and the “puppets and puppet masters abroad” identified.
Belarus,
with a population of some 9.5 million, has one of Europe’s highest infection
rates for the coronavirus, which Lukashenka dismissed as a “mass psychosis” and
ignored calls by the World Health Organization and others to institute any
social-distancing measures.
The World
Bank predicts the Belarusian economy will contract 4 percent this year as a
result of the pandemic, while some informal, online polls put Lukashenka’s
public support at just 3 percent.
In the
election on August 9, Lukashenka will be seeking a sixth term in office. No
election, either for president or parliament, during his rule has been deemed
free and fair by Western governments and institutions.
The
previous day, thousands of people took to Independence Boulevard in what was
dubbed a picket of solidarity after Viktar Babaryka, who headed the
Russian-owned Belgazprombank for 20 years, was detained on suspicion of
financial crimes, as well as his son who heads his presidential election
campaign.
Belarusian
authorities on June 15 took control of the bank and arrested more than a dozen
top executives on charges of tax evasion and money laundering.
Babaryka,
56, has said the actions taken against Belgazprombank were part of an
intimidation campaign conducted on “political orders.”
On June 19th,
the European Union called on Belarus to immediately release Babaryka and his
son from detention and to guarantee full respect of the rule of law.
UKRAINE
European
Union leaders on June 19 have supported a six-month extension of economic
sanctions imposed against Russia over its role in the ongoing conflict in
Ukraine.
French
President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel briefed other EU
heads of state and government during a videoconference and declared that no
progress had been made in implementing the Minsk agreement.
The sanctions
were first adopted in July 2014 after Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimean
Peninsula and began providing military support for pro-Russia separatists in
eastern Ukraine in a conflict that has killed more than 13,000 people.
Since then,
the sanctions have been extended every six months. A formal decision to prolong
the sanctions beyond their current July 31 expiry date is to be taken by EU
ambassadors in the coming weeks.
Russian
President Vladimir Putin earlier this year proposed a freeze on economic
sanctions on "humanitarian" grounds to allow countries to better
combat the coronavirus pandemic however EU officials have rejected Putin's
call, with both European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European
Council President Charles Michel insisting the measures "do not impede
Russia’s capacity" to combat the epidemic.
The
sanctions mainly target Russia’s financial, energy, and defense industries.
Gilles Breton also currently serves as Chairman of the National Board of the Canada-Eurasia-Russia Business Association. The views expressed in this newsletter exclusively reflect the opinion of the authors.
--o--
THE AUTHORS
Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe. Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, had become a textbook on relations of media and society.
During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.
