THE BRETON/GEROL NEWSLETTER
THE MOUNTAIN GAVE BIRTH TO A MOUSE
The two-year
long investigation and the conclusions of the Mueller inquiry are reminiscent
of two and a half lines of a four-line Latin poem by Phaedrus. “A mountain had
gone into labour and was groaning terribly. Such rumors excited great
expectations all over the country. In the end, however, the mountain gave birth
to a mouse.”
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| Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller III |
Democrats spent two and a half years pinning all their hopes and tying virtually all internal and external policies of the United States on the assumption that Donald Trump had colluded with (or even was an asset or agent of) the Russian Federation. The press sympathetic to this simplistic and ultimately wrong (as we know now empirically) conclusion was spearheading this quest. This reverberated way beyond the borders of the United States and negatively influenced not only East-West relations, but also relations with allies. Democrats, through Mueller, failed not only to prove that Trump colluded with Russia, but by doing so have further undermined efforts of legitimate criticism of all the weak points of Trump and his administration and have increased Donald Trump's chances in 2020.
The Democratic Majority in Congress will nevertheless want to pursue the issue of obstruction of justice, over which Mueller did not reach a formal conclusion.
On the
positive side of being cleared on the Russia front Trump can resurrect attempts
to improve relations with Russia especially in light of the fact that relations
between the two nuclear giants are at historic lows. Moreover some key issues
of the world politics like Ukraine, Syria and nuclear disarmament simply cannot
be solved without equal participation and engagement of Russia and the United
States.
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| Attorney General William Barr |
As for
Russia itself, Attorney General Barr’s summary letter of the Mueller report
does not offer any new information on the two main allegations. There has been
some of debate about the extent, effectiveness and impact of the trolling
activity that was conducted by the St. Petersburg Internet Research Agency. Mueller
has indicted a number of Russian citizens in this connection, but their cases will most likely
never make it to a US Court. As for the hacking of the computers of the
Democratic National Committee and the results of that hacking being made
public, it should be noted that Trump associate Roger Stone still has to
undergo trial for his role in that process. This, however important it
may be, may not have a lot of impact on Trump himself.
--o--
AND THEN THERE WERE 39
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| Preparing ballot papers ©Central Electoral Commission of Ukraine |
44
candidates initially registered for the March 31st Ukrainian
Presidential Election. 5 have officially withdrawn. This will still leave
Ukrainian voters with a rather unwieldy ballot paper. Experience shows that this
can complicate voting and tallying, but it is not the biggest problem.
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| Candidate Zelensky |
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| Candidate Tymoshenko |
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| Candidate Poroshenko |
One
reliable recent public opinion poll indicates that, despite his lack of
government experience, comedian-turned-presidential candidate Vladimir Zelensky
currently enjoys the support of up to 32.7% of the voters that have made up their
minds and that are planning to participate in the March 31st first
round of the presidential election. This is almost twice as much as current President
Poroshenko who receives 16.8% and former PM Tymoshenko who only gets 12.3%.
Previous opinion polls had suggested a similar, but less pronounced tendency in
favour of Zelensky. Further analysis of opinion polls seems to suggest that
Zelensky would soundly defeat either Poroshenko or Tymoshenko in the second
round. Interestingly, Poroshenko is the candidate with the strongest negative
rating: in a poll that was asking voters who have decided to participate in the
election for which candidate they would not vote “under any circumstances”
Poroshenko ranked first at 49.3% .By comparison, only 28.5% expressed such an
opinion with respect to Tymoshenko.
In a
country that has such a low opinion of its traditional political class, Zelensky
is an attractive candidate as the non-corrupt outsider and as one who is not a
professional politician. Although his political program may not be completely
fleshed out, he has been given him credit for the fact that he has managed to
position himself above division lines, thus making himself acceptable to some nationalists
as well as to some who may want better relations with Russia. It is worth
noting that the recent visit to Moscow by pro-Russia presidential candidate
Boyko and his meeting with PM Medvedev and Gazprom Chairman Miller were seen as
attempt to take pro-Russia votes away from Zelensky. Boyko’s controversial
Moscow journey was intended to demonstrate that a true friend of Russia would
be able to strike a deal on the supply and transit of Russian gas that would
result in a lower price of gas for Ukrainian households, a matter which is not
insignificant in light of recent and upcoming price increases.
As for
Poroshenko, observers generally agree that his return to second position in
public opinion polls is a result of his capture of the more nationalist vote
through, among other things, his efforts to promote the creation of an
autocephalous Ukrainian Orthodox Church recognized as such by the Patriarch of
Constantinople. The lackluster performance of other nationalist candidates Tymoshenko
and Former Defence Minister Grytsenko probably helped as well. In light of the
negative perception of his overall record on the matter, as well as of
recent scandals involving some of his associates, Poroshenko’s weakest point
would probably be the fight against corruption. To counter that perception or,
more simply, to muddy the waters, Yuri Lutsenko , Procurator General of Ukraine
suggested in a recent interview that he had received a few years ago a list of “untouchables”
from the US Ambassador Marie Jovanovich. According to Lutsenko, these
untouchables were to be exempted from any prosecution. The Lutsenko allegations
were quickly rebuffed by US officials and seemed to have only been intended to
create confusion around the fight against corruption, even at the cost of
alienating a strong supporter.
Although
the level of participation among Zelensky supporters might be a problem his lead
in the polls a few days before the election would seem sufficient to take him
as the first candidate to the second round. Indications are that he would then
face Poroshenko. There would then be likely protests from the Tymoshenko camp
that Poroshenko stole his participation by the use of “administrative
resources”, the code word for the influence that incumbents and their supporters
across all levels of government can use to affect the outcome of elections.
Alarmingly, a recent opinion poll suggests that 83% of Ukrainians indeed expect
there will be “falsification” of the results, regardless of the large number of
international observers. The Central Election Commission having acquiesced to
the presence of over 300 members of Ukraine’s far-right National Militia as election
monitors, international observers will also have the additional task of
observing these unusual observers.
APRIL 1ST
UPDATE
With more than 80% of the votes counted, results show that Zelensky received 30% of the vote and Poroshenko
slightly above 16%. They will now face off in the second round on April 21st.
Prior to the first round, many Ukrainian political experts were still
forecasting a Poroshenko win in the second round, despite both Zelensky’s
greater popularity and Poroshenko’s above-mentioned negative rating. Poroshenko’s
full use of the advantages of incumbency and Zelensky’s inexperience were given
as reasons for that prediction. Zelensky’s
strong showing may change the situation. Poroshenko drawing his strongest support from Western Ukraine, it also looks like this second tour may turn out to be a repeat of previous Eastern Ukraine/Western Ukraine confrontations. In
--o--
BACK TO SQUARE ONE
The
bromance between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump had everything for it: two
summits, one in Singapore and one in Vietnam, warm handshakes, exchange of love
letters and assurances (by Trump) that he had no better buddy in the world than
little Kim and that North Korea, by giving up its nukes, had a fast track into
the family of nations and a bright future for its economy...However nothing
came out of this as not a single set of sanctions was removed and North Korea
moved swiftly to prepare itself and its multiple nuclear site for fresh
launches.
As a
consequence the relations between North and South Korea also went sour and the faint
hope that a peace treaty would finally be signed after 66 years of state of war
is no more.
The
American approach is clear: no sanction relief without credible steps towards
full denuclearization. On the other hand it is equally clear that North Korea
is not going to give up its most valued asset. Its nuclear program is too vast,
too complex and too much has been invested since its inception in the early
1950's. The ghost of Qaddafi, who only several years before having his country invaded
and himself killed, gave his nuclear program up, is also something that Kim must
often think about.
Though
still in minority, more and more voices begin to express the view that maybe
the time has come to accept North Korea into the nuclear club and deal with
them as a legitimate nuclear power with all manner of control and supervision
that this will bring. So maybe only then can the economic help and relief of
sanctions be arranged, something that may change the country for the better.
--o--
VENEZUELA
UPDATE: THE MONROE DOCTRINE, 195 YEARS LATER
Other than
the major power shortages, there had been few new developments in the situation
in Venezuela in the past month, until a few days ago when a Russian cargo
aircraft brought in 100 Russian specialists and delivered tons of technical
equipment into the country. There had been US-Russia consultation in Rome
earlier in the month and one might have expected a lessening of tension, at
least temporarily. The arrival of the Russian experts and their gear brought a
quick end to that diplomatic pause. The arrival of the Russian aircraft drew a
blunt reaction from Donald Trump: “Russia must get out of Venezuela”. Trump’s
statement drew a strident response from the Russian Foreign Ministry
spokesperson, essentially challenging the US to explain on what legal basis it
was issuing such an injunction.
All things
considered, beyond this exchange of diplomatic fire, there is little progress
or hope of progress in resolving the current crisis.
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| President James Monroe, 1758-1831 |
To justify
their position vis a vis Venezuela and Russia, National Security Adviser John
Bolton, among others, invoked the Monroe Doctrine. The Doctrine has obviously evolved
since it was first outlined by President Monroe in 1823 in the colonial context
of the time, but it is still largely perceived as the justification for US
intervention in the affairs of Latin American States. Recourse to the Doctrine
does not reinforce the US argument. It would only create discomfort among US
allies in Latin America, but creating discomfort among allies anywhere does not
seem to bother the Trump administration.
As for the
Russian personnel and cargo, no one has publicly offered an explanation of
their purpose. Given that the operation was not conducted very discretely, one
would have to surmise that it does not have to do with some highly secret offensive military
activity. This is not a repeat of the Cuban crisis of the 1960s. One must as well conclude that the delivery in itself was intended to counter current or future US actions and to send a message in this respect. What technical capacity of the Venezuelan
government and of its armed forces it was intended to support would most likely
be known without much effort by US Intelligence. A very strong US reaction to Russia countering its plans was predictable.
--o--
POMPEO LECTURES, PRESIDENT AOUN GOES FOR DINNER
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| Secretay of State Pompeo, Lebanese Foreign Minister Bassil Beirut , March 22 ©State Department |
At the end of March, just a few days after receiving Secretary of State Pompeo, Lebanese President Michel Aoun travelled to Moscow for a state visit. Without much success, Pompeo had lectured the Lebanese government over the need to distance itself from Hezbollah (there are three Hezbollah representatives in the current Lebanese council of ministers). In Moscow President Aoun agreed with President Putin over the need to support efforts aimed at implementing the Russian initiative towards the return of refugees and agreed that the resolution of this problem depends directly on the creation of appropriate economic and social conditions in Syria through the reconstruction of the country. The two presidents called on the international community to support this process. For their own reasons Moscow and Beyrouth would like to see the return of refugees to Syria. By agreeing to the linkage of return of refugees to the reconstruction of the country, which is in turn dependent on a political solution in Syria, President Aoun brought the Lebanese position somewhat closer to the Russian one.
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| Presidents Aoun and Putin March 26, Moscow ©President of Russia Website |
Lebanon certainly
does not have as much capacity as other countries in and outside of the region in
terms of financing the reconstruction of Syria. Having it on board is, however,
a useful first step in that direction.
The visit
of President Aoun was also an opportunity to promote economic cooperation
between Lebanon and Russia. Beyond the usual objectives of trade
diversification on both sides Lebanon has an interest in the broader
diversification of its economy and in the presence of large Russian
corporations, especially in the energy sector.
Secretary of State Pompeo's demands would jettison the fragile equilibrium on which governement arrangements in Lebanon are dependent. In a way, although it may not have been planned that way initially, President
Aoun’s discussions about the refugee issue nurturing of the Lebanon-Russia relationship is the indirect diplomatic
response to Secretary of State Pompeo’s imprecations about Hezbollah: nothing can be done about Hezbollah and Lebanon has other more pressing priorities it can discuss with other partners. The Lebanon-Russia engagement does not in itself add another irritant to the list of US grievances about Russia, but it reminds the US that Russia can be a counterweight to US influence even in a country that receives military assistance from the US.
--o--
PERSON OF
THE MONTH: NURSULTAN NAZARBAYEV
©President Nazarbayev Personal Website
President
Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan resigned in the most unusual manner for the leader of a former
Soviet republic. Yet, it was not totally unexpected. Nazarbayev started with
changing the Constitution by creating a Security Council aimed at supervising
every branch of power. This allowed him to transfer some of his authority to the Security Council while becoming its Chairman for life. In many ways he followed in the footsteps
of Deng Xiaoping, great Chinese reformer and leader of China in the 1980's who
gradually relinquished his power while grooming new generation of leaders.
In a
traditional Central Asian style that requires some additional symbolism in
securing and prolonging power, Nazarbayev also was pronounced "El
Basy" meaning Father of the Nation. As if not enough respect was paid to
the great man, the capital city of Astana was renamed into Nursultan
(Nazarbayev's first name).
The serious
implications of Nazarbayev’s partial retirement are a change of priorities in
Kazakhstan's long-term geopolitical strategy. Kazakhstan, though a staunch ally
of Moscow, simultaneously began looking towards the Chinese economic model and
its political implications. For example the new president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev
speaks fluent Chinese and a majority of Kazakhstan's students now prefer to
study in Chinese universities instead of schools in Russia. At the same time the
leadership of Kazakhstan understands that in the age of rapidly developing
Internet and massive influence of English across the globe and therefore Latin
script was introduced in the country instead of cyrillic.
Nevertheless
Nursultan Nazarbayev continues to be very popular leader in most capitals of post-Soviet
countries, including Moscow
--o--
BRIEFLY NOTED
ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN
Azerbaijan
has launched large-scale military maneuvers ahead of an expected first meeting
between President Ilham Aliyev and new Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian.
According to Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry close to 10,000 troops, 500 tanks,
300 missile systems, aircraft, and other military equipment will take part in
the five-day exercises.
Armenia's
Foreign Ministry said the drills "do not contribute to the creation of an
environment conducive to peace."
No date has
been decided yet for the meeting between Pashinian and Aliyev over the disputed
region of Nagorno-Karabakh, but both sides have voiced a willingness for them
to take place.
James
Appathurai, the NATO secretary-general's special representative for the
Caucasus and Central Asia, welcomed Armenia's new approach toward easing
tensions with Azerbaijan over the disputed region.
KYRGYZSTAN
Former
Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambaev has issued a public apology for helping to
bring his successor to power. He also called his onetime ally an
"autocrat" and promised to "rectify the mistake". Atambaev's
recent statement threatened to take his
bitter feud with President Sooronbai Jeenbekov, the former prime minister he
steered into office in 2016, to a new level.
Speaking at
a public gathering marking the 17th anniversary of deadly violence against
protesters in the southern town of Aksy, Atambaev accused Jeenbekov of creating
an autocratic governing style based on family ties. There was no immediate
direct response from Jeenbekov, who visited the Aksy district to commemorate
the victims of the violence there and said he will "never allow the
creation of autocratic clans in Kyrgyzstan."
On March
17, 2002, violence erupted at a demonstration in support of a jailed politician
and police killed at least five protesters. The incident sparked widespread
protests. It was the first deadly dispersal of demonstrators since Kyrgyzstan
won independence in the Soviet collapse of 1991 and contributed to the anger
that led to the ouster of President Askar Akaev in 2005.
Tambaev,
who was limited to a single six-year presidential term by the constitution,
vocally backed Jeenbekov in the October 2017 presidential election, but the two
have exchanged public accusations of incompetence and lack of professionalism
in recent months. In October,
Kyrgyzstan's Supreme Court ruled that the immunity enjoyed by the country's
former presidents is unconstitutional. In December, parliament gave preliminary
approval to a bill that would eliminate immunity for ex-presidents, potentially
opening the path for Atambaev's prosecution.
TURKMENISTAN
Turkmenistan says it will privatize much of the state-owned transport system and gradually end funding for the country's Academy of Sciences as it looks to bolster its struggling economy and save money amid a continuing slump in its energy sector.
A decree
published on January 30 by authoritarian President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov
said the privatization process was "designed to help strengthen the
competitiveness of the national economy," increase investment, and
strengthen small and medium-sized businesses.
The
president gave the Justice Ministry three months to propose legislation to
transform the transport industry, but he did not indicate whether foreign
companies would be able to invest in the privatized sector.
Meanwhile,
the government also said state funding for the Academy of Sciences will be
phased out over three years and that the organization will be streamlined.
Berdymukhammedov,
61, has ruled the gas-rich former Soviet republic since his autocratic
predecessor, Saparmurat Niyazov, died in December 2006. Government critics and
human rights groups say he has suppressed dissent and made few changes in the
restrictive country since he came to power.
Turkmenistan's
manat currency has lost a fifth of its value after the collapse of hydrocarbon
prices in 2014, while Russian energy giant Gazprom's decision to cease
purchasing Turkmen gas at the start of 2016 further hurt the economy.
The move
left Turkmenistan even more reliant on demand from China, which last year
imported 35 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas via the Central Asia-China
pipeline.
RUSSIA-TURKEY-HUNGARY
Russia will begin delivering natural gas to Hungary via the TurkStream pipeline in the second half of 2021, Peter Szijjarto, the Hungarian minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade said on March 21.
The
TurkStream natural gas pipeline has a total capacity of 31.5 billion cubic
meters, out of which the first line will carry a capacity of 15.75 billion
cubic meters of Russian gas to Turkish consumers. The second line will carry
another 15.75 billion cubic meters of gas to Bulgaria, then Serbia, Hungary and
Slovakia via Turkey.
ROMANIA
Following the example set by Donald Trump, Romanian Prime Minister Viorica Dăncilă this month that her country's embassy in Israel will be moved to Jerusalem. The idea of moving Romania's Israel embassy to Jerusalem was first suggested by Dragnea in 2017 after Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and promised to move the US embassy there.
The
decision comes at a time when Romania is at odds with the European Union over
the rule of law. The EU accused Romania, which currently holds the EU
presidency, of backtracking on key reforms against corruption. Though the two issues
are not linked, the overall tone of the EU-Romania relationship is affected.
POLAND-RUSSIA
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said it was baffled by Poland’s refusal to invite a Russian delegation to a commemoration ceremony marking 80 years since the start of World War II.Poland declared this week that Russia has not been invited to the September ceremony because of its annexation of Crimea and activities in eastern Ukraine. It slammed Poland for “ignoring historical logic” and being guided by “short-term political ‘priorities,’” and accused it of falsifying “the record of World War II and the postwar period.”
--o--
THE AUTHORS
Ilya Gerol, former foreign editor of the Citizen in Ottawa, syndicated columnist in Canadian, US and European media specializing in international affairs. His particular area of expertise includes Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern and Central Europe. Ilya Gerol has written several books, one of them, The Manipulators, had become a textbook on relations of media and society.
During his career in the Canadian Foreign Service, Gilles Breton had three assignments at the Canadian Embassy in Moscow. His first posting there began during the Soviet period, in 1983. His last was from 2008 to 2012 as Minister-Counsellor and Deputy Head of Mission. He also served as Deputy Director responsible for Canada’s relations with Russia from 2000 to 2008. As an international civil servant, he was Deputy Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Warsaw from 1994 to 1997.
Gilles Breton also currently serves as Chairman of the National Board of the Canada-Eurasia-Russia Business Association. The views expressed in this newsletter exclusively reflect the opinion of the authors.
